On paper, the Round 3 match between Carlton and Sydney should be an easy one to pick. The 2005 premiers against the 2005 wooden spooners have however had contrasting starts to season 2006. Sydney languishes in 14th poisitin without a win – and to be fair, flattering scorelines in both their losses. Carlton, on the other hand, defeated Melbourne before a competitive effort at Subiaco against Fremantle.

Despite this, it seems logical that the Swans will go in favourites for this game. A hard-working, accountable midfield, a multi-dimensional forward line and solid, honest defenders is always a good formula. But will it be enough. Odds are the answer will be known from the form of one player – Barry Hall.

Last time the Blues and Swans met, Hall kicked 6 goals in a 25 pount win for the Swans. Carlton still has no appropriate matchup for him – Thornton not strong enough, Livingston not mobile enough, Hartlett not mature enough. Carlton will need a loose man in defence to chop off his leads and help spoil the marks. Lance Whitnall could be this man, setting up rebounds and quelling the 4th or 5th forward at the same time.

Up the other end, the loss of Brad Fisher is a big one. Without the third reliable marking target (behind Fev and Waite), the attack has become very one-dimensional…again. Hopefully Adrian DeLuca can begin to hold his marks and cover some ground as a mobile linking 202cm forward. If so, the forward line becomes much more dangerous again.

The midfield is a different proposition again. Experienced campaigners Kirk, Bolton, Williams etc against the inexperienced Bentick, Carrazzo (if not in defence) Murphy with help from Stevens, Scotland and Koutoufides. It’s an evenly balanced equation that will only be won if the senior players step up and lead by example with regards to accountability and keeping on their man. If this occurs, the youngsters could well be allowed to run free and deliver with precision into the forward line.

I’m really looking forward to this match. Not only because it’s the first Free-To-Air Carlton match this year, but because I think there’s a genuine chance to win. The Blues have several classy players coming through, something the Swans lack in comparison. However, I believe that if Hall is not controlled sufficiently, his presence will lift the Swans to a win. And with no suitable matchups for Hall, this is more likely to happen than not.

Sydney by 13 points.

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Cer 'ch 'n alluog Blues

Kennedy would be a bit of a stretch after his half in the VFL - but having said that, it'd be unlikely he'd play the full game anyway. We need a guy who's willing to be physical and crunch a few bodies.

If anything it's our midfield who must step up. We have to get our hands on the ball first and use it properly.

Agree Davis, Barry, O'Loughlin, Hall, they all played like millionaires on Sunday.

I personally think we'll lose but I'm ready for anything and I AM BARRACKING FOR THE BLUES DAMMIT!!!!!!!

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"A good composer does not initiate. He steals."

- Igor Stravinsky

sure thing Mr Turncoat

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This might sound extreme in the context of alleged sexual assault, drunken violence and a drug trafficking charge...

That's what you want us to believe.

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Cer 'ch 'n alluog Blues

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"A good composer does not initiate. He steals."

- Igor Stravinsky

I think we're all with you there Clem.

I had to laugh when I heard Barry on the radio promoting the newest 4-game super pass .. "something to cheer about" I think was the tag.

We have been so shit recently - this is just what both we and the Swans need

Swans - Coming off 0-2 from the flag
Blues - Coming off 1-1 from the spoon

Sportsbet has us at $2.35 (Swans at $1.61) .. http://www.sportsbet.com.au/Events.asp?SportID=8146

Man, I'll be crowing all over the fkkn place after this weekend. Beats Easter Eggs

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[Sam Jacobs] looks like a 7' Lance Whitnall, and [Mitch Robinson] looks like a 4' Lance Whitnall
(The SEN team during the Carlton v Cats 2009 pre-season match)

i think Barry Hall will be the berometer if he plays well and kicks 6 or 6 then the swans will probably beat us, however if waite (assuming he plays) or fev can kick a bag for us and big bad Barry is shut down i think we can get over the line

assuming worse case scenario of waite, lappin, kennedy, wiggins being injured and unavailable for selection this weekend my changes would be

out - deluca, lappin, waite
in - saddington, blackwell, setanta (prendergast as an alternative is setanta isnt ready)

Dont like chambers in the team but dont like dropping players after just one week and thought he did ok from his opportunities last week.

I dont htink we are strong enough atm in terms of getting first use hence i see blackwell as essential - particularly against good running midfields where getting first touch is more important than how well you can chase. Dont think we have a replacement player that can cover lappins creativity so we are better off going for an inside mid.

saddington to go back to free whitnall to forward line.

I just finished watching 'Last time they met' on Fox footy.

Why we lost IMO:

Players tired badly in 4Q
Lack of midfield rotations (no depth or creativity)
Bryan (BOG) sole ruckman against Ball and Jolly tired badly early in 4Q
Bryan off for most of 4Q
Whitnall into ruck as Bryan's replacement. (Prenders committed to Goodes). Robbing our forwardline
No French, No DeLuca
Campo killed by Bolton 31 to 13 posssessions
Inaccurate short passing (esp Campo)
Kouta quiet game (18 poss)
Lappin had low impact
Long Kicking game plan bad idea too many times.
Coach's mismatch McGrath on O'loughlin and O'Keefe (yeah right!)
Low confidence in Teague, Bentick and Walker
Weak bench Clarke, Morrell, Bentick, Davies (lack of depth)
4Q 7 goals to 2 goals (O'loughlin, O'Keefe 2, Goodes, Hall 2, Buchanon)
Easy goals a factor not Hall.
Umpiring in the centre square favoured Swans

Changes since that game:

Gone: Morrell, Clarke, Campo
Bullants: Bryan, Teague, Davies
Injured players: French, DeLuca, Simpson, Fisher, Setanta (all avail except for Fisher again)
Retired: Ball, Nicks...

Fevola easily accounted for Barry. Just too big and strong
Fevola double teamed by Kennelly, still won
Whitnall easily beat Bolton, TRT etc
Thornton good match up for Hall (Hall's 5 not Thornton's fault)
Livo looked good against O'Loughlin in 1st half. Then one time he concentrated on the man rather than continue to back himself, and was taken off (bad coaching).
Kirk tagged Stevens (good battle)
Prenders tagged Goodes (Goodes quiet till moving to backline in 4Q)
Carlton hit the front 2 mins 4Q (3 goals in a row)

Without having seen teams for this week's games. Carlton's improvement in the midfield depth, general strength, tall forwardline and a backline which will improve with McGrath on small rovers (not KP's), Walkers run, should see Carlton comfortable winners by 25 points.

From last year's game Carlton have French, DeLuca, Simpson, Setanta, Murphy, Saddington, Kennedy, McLaren, Sporn, Bannister and Russell available for selection, with an injury cloud over Waite (who happened to star the last time they met).

Swans are not the same team that won the Flag. That was last year. Swans are not a tall unit. Swans Ruck division beaten by Bryan single handed is weaker with Ball's departure, and Carlton will add French and McLaren to combat them this year. Hall a danger only if close to goal. Need a good match for O'Keefe. Most important to watch out for is the run out of Swans defense by Bolton and Kennelly (out this week), and midfield linkmen in Couch, Buchanon, Fosdike, Kirk, Ablett; must be played close. Murphy may be too small for these guys. Bentick, Houlihan, Carrazzo and even Simpson can match it with these guys this year.

New rules wont help Swans this year diving on the ball and holding it as a defensive ploy. Chopping hands of marking player. Going tall in the Carlton fowardline with the roof closed will worry them. I wish we had two Whitnalls. We need Kouta, Stevens and Scotland to fire with their body strength in the midfield.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

It is an intriguing match-up really. Reigning premier vs wooden spooners, yet our form is reasonable and their is insipid.

The bookies will only give us an 8 point start, so the smart money thinks we're a chance.

Go with the smart money. I am going to put a lazy 100 on the 8 points and another 100 on a big win for the blues. I am basing my judgement on what's presented before me, and a lttle bit of heart the boys have given me in this last month.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

Who are you putting it on with? Don't take less than 2.39 straight out and 1.98 at the line

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Time to go: Smorgon, Pagan

Great analysis BB. I agree, the Swans are freaked by height and we should try and exploit it. Also agree...Kennelly is good because he backs himself to the ball and users his manouverability to run the ball out. Doesn't worry about his opponent all that much...so Whitts is a great option for that, someone who will probably judge the ball better.



Gee you'ld better be careful around here....you might be asked to leave

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“Every single element of the Club has to be the best in the league, meticulously and methodically, and only by doing this will we be elite and challenge for number 17.”
Greg Lee

Afraid of no one! except the man with the can of Mortein. Morteiiiiiiiiiin.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

Whitnall is a great player when he is FIT. Everyone agrees; both sides of the fence. I'm not going into the details of people's perception of his pace, but IMO he makes up for that by controlling his environment; forward or back, with ease. I've never really seen as smart a footballer in my lifetime. He's good value right now . That's for sure.

Look at what he's done for us when he was fit (after pulling tyres with dad) in 2005. Look at what he has done in every game in 2006 in the NAB, NAB Challenge and intra club games. He is The stand out in terms of value and return, and with him in real season after two rounds, is Fevola.

Yeah I'd love to have two of him this week. One as a floater/CHB, and the other as a true CHF.

I love it when LANCE IS FIT, because that's when HE's IN CONTROL.

Gotta win in it the middle first though. That's where I believe our midfield will unveil their true ability in this game. We have strength, skill and the depth to keep up the intensity there. Win or lose, IMO I understand where we're at. The Blues will win this one, regardless of whose in or out.

May I add . If Waite, Lappin and Fisher are out, and we retain DeLuca and Chambers, and we replace the injured two with Longmuir and Russel/ Bower/ Edwards instead of one or two of Setanta, Saddington, Kennedy and Prendergast, then the balance tips towards the Swans favour...but we'll win; I'd pick the four of them to come in.

In: Setanta, Saddington, Kennedy and Prendergast. Lots of big boys around for Kennedy's debut. Perfect.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

These pricks cheated to win the flag last year with their scragging tactics (yeah Sampi should have got a free when Barry took that illegal mark of the century) and the AFL letting Hall off the hook. Now the rules interpretations have changed we can expose them for the frauds they are.
We'll smash these jokers!

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"We used to sit around and talk about how bad the game plan was." Anthony Koutoufides