Couple of things, does it matter if you win a premiership with 16 top 30 picks and 6 others or 11 and 11, especially if your drafting strategy was to focus most of your picks at the top? Of course not. I’m not sure the exact composition of where players were taken is all that important a factor in success.

In any case, we are not performing any worse than others at our late picks. We are definitely underperforming in the rookie draft. But you don’t build from the bottom, because there is just a quality factor that cannot be ignored at the top end.

For instance
Off the top of my head the Tigers top players are
Martin
Cotchin
Prestia
Rance
Riewoldt
Houli
Edwards
Lynch
Vlaustin

Obviously some were traded in, but where were they all taken when originally drafted? You need that elite critical mass first before adding the foot soldiers from the later picks. ie Kane Lambert. If you don't get the early picks right when building the core, you only have a look at Carlton's list before SOS arrived to see how badly things can turn out. You can nail as many later picks as you want, but you're dead in the water because you don't have any elite talent. And elite talent very rarely, as shown on draftguru, comes from outside the top 30 picks.

Again, not disputing the better/premiership teams finish the list of with astute trades and late picks, but they always have an amazing core of elite players taken early in the draft that enables them to do that, that provides an environment for those players taken later in the draft, who have greater flaws to work on, to develop and flourish in a mature well drilled system. That system can also help cover those flaws, something poor teams simply don’t have the talent to paper over. That is an environment that has not existed at the CFC in 20 years. Even now, five years in, it's only this year that it looks like we have a whole team that has returned to training looking fit and ready for match simulation, instead of spending all the time before Christmas to get into that condition. I can't remember that happening across all the players before this pre season. We have been so far behind everywhere missing a few rookie picks hasn’t been what’s holding us back.

But yes, time to start investing in smarter recruitment in the rookie draft to finish the job.

Geelong have used the same number of draft picks (30) between 2015 and 2018. Last year's pick #15 Jordan Clark is the only first round selection. They've used eight 2nd & 3rd round pick.

20+ Games:

* Mature age
# 2nd or 3rd round ND
^ Still on the list

*^ Menegola - 65 games
^ Parsons - 35
Ruggles - 22
#^ Parfitt - 54
*#^ Stewart - 68
#^ Ratugolea - 28
^ Henry - 45
*# Kelly - 48
^ Miers - 25
*^ Atkins - 23

Geelong - 18/29 picks later than the first round still on the list. 0/1 F/S or academy.
Carlton - 9/21 picks later than the first round still on the list. 2/2 F/S or academy.

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"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter" - Winston Churchill.

Cats are using a different strategy, which is working to an extent.

Again they have not had access to a lot of top 20 picks, but they have also performed horribly in that period with those selections until Clark. Last good pick up was Harry Taylor 2007. Making them possibly the worst in the league and could be why, whilst they have been ultra competitive, not had the ultimate success in the last 8 years. ie missing with Lang and Smedts is a bigger problem than getting Miers and Ratugolea as value picks. So while their later picks are certainly good footballers which I would like Carlton to be picking at those selections, if you're not adding to an elite core then as good as those selections are, they're not making you a premiership team. I think again they will find it difficult to win a premiership.

And just because picks are still on the list, isn't an indicator of whether they are going to be good players. I'd rather we cut early if we think we have chosen poorly. Don't double down on poor selections. I'm not sure having Parfitt, Parsons, Ruggles on a list for more than 5 years is all that great list management, just my opinion.

But yes, they pick well in the pick ranges they have after pick 20. But they miss out on elite talent at the top frequently, which is in my opinion, a much bigger problem when building a list to win a Premiership.

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"Hence you will not say that Greeks fight like heroes but that heroes fight like Greeks"?

Winston Churchill

That probably had more to do with what we do with them once they get to the club.
A good development system makes the recruitment easy.

We as a club have been terrible at development of players

If our early picks haven't excelled to great heights how can we expect our late picks to become good serviceable players.

Cripps is the only player in the past 10 years who had over achieved

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They will create an Emergency to change the Laws

Impossible for them to be winners when SOS keeps selecting retreads instead of untried talent.... go through the rookie selections over the last 4 years.... even this season's mid year draft... lazy, lazy recruiting...

one of the many reasons many at the club (in the football dept, and at the highest level), both former and current, don't worship SOS like so many in this thread do

We’re closer to a flag than Geelong.

They don’t have a chance without Hendo.

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Turkish Proverb

The point being missed here, is that many of the retreats or free hits were brought in to protect the kids in the first couple of years or were part of a trade salary cap dump. Agree that our rookie selections need improvement but I am happy that under SOS we have nailed the top end of the draft especially 2015. Lot more difficult than some here think. Anyone remember Shane Rogers and the 2014 draft

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Scott, things aren't as happy as they used to be down here at the unemployment office. Joblessness is no longer just for Philosophy majors - useful people are starting to feel the pinch.

The Rogers/Hughes years are a very low base for comparison- SOS years much better, but saying he is better than Rogers/Hughes is damning with faint praise.

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"Hence you will not say that Greeks fight like heroes but that heroes fight like Greeks"?

Winston Churchill

So exactly how did Mullet, O'Shea, Shaw, Palmer etc etc etc etc etc protect the kids?

Every retread brought in took up a list spot, which could have been used looking for the next Lambert, Papley, Atkins, Mihocek, Baker, Marshall, McInerney etc etc etc players that could help the kids by contributing, short term and long term? For some reason, it's what other clubs actually do...

Do you understand how salary cap dumps work? Look at Hawthorn with Scully....

I don't disagree that our late and rookie selections need improvement but balance that against the quality selections at the top end and trade wins. Too much focus on the 30% that could be better than the 70% which has been very good.

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Scott, things aren't as happy as they used to be down here at the unemployment office. Joblessness is no longer just for Philosophy majors - useful people are starting to feel the pinch.

It's not just about the selection in isolation. Palmer was taken as a part of a trade negotiation process.
We agreed to take his salary for a year to reduce the quality of picks exchanged.
Yes there are several disasters but let's not pull out names without looking at the complete negotiation.

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Looking forward to seeing our potential realised.

I agree with your summary. Thanks again Toddy

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

Yeah ... tell me more.

I understand keoghs point.
I understand SOS' strategy.
I understand his failure with rookies and late picks

...but I thought the club was on the same page and everyone agreed with the strategy throughout the 66 game period, and most agree, former and current, and opposition supporters and commentators (other tan Caro, for obvious reasons) we have a great, albeit young list.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

Good post. Bad choices with those retreads, I dont think you can count Palmer.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

Did Scully want to play for carlton?

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

Great summary by Todd.

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We were told they were mature bodies who could take the on-field hits while the young bodies developed.

But maybe, just maybe they were selected for their incompetence, so they could take the off-field abuse while the young egos developed.

SOS playing 4D chess again.

What other retreads were there?

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"Hence you will not say that Greeks fight like heroes but that heroes fight like Greeks"?

Winston Churchill

Parfitt has played 54 out of 73 possible games. He's been picked for all seven finals the Cats have played since he entered the league.

Parsons was a rookie pick, upgraded after playing a full season in his second year. He's has had some injuries, but his first full contract will probably be his last.

Ruggles was a mature age rookie pick that played 18/23 games in his first season. They've already moved him on.

They've used their first round picks in the same period to trade for Dangerfield, Touhy, Henderson and Ablett. You don't have to use a first round pick at the draft to make good use of it. They're way ahead of the count on that score.

I used Geelong as an example, because their strategy is where we have to transition into. Good teams don't get high draft picks, but they've still added nearly a dozen regulars to their core.

We haven't been a hard side to break into in the SOS era. If we had managed to jag four or five regulars with picks outside the first couple of rounds, i'd be arguing hard for SOS to stay on. Unless he finds one in this draft, his record is going to read 2/18 and they'll both have his surname.

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"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter" - Winston Churchill.