Conundrum wrote:
mojo31 wrote:
Thorton for Miller?
No way.
Miller cant kick and cant take a contested grab. Cant kick goals or make them for others. Defdnders drop off him and let him lead up and know he wont kick the ball well enough to hit a full forward with a 50m accurate pass. He kicks up and under.
He cant kick long goals and panics when shooting from 45m and sprays them.
He is a lead up forward who handballs off and does not want to kick. He cant stand under the ball and take a contested mark. he cant be used deep forward. Just a tall flanker.
Ryan O'Keefe plays a similar way but is an elite kick. He can spot up a player easily and he makes goals for others. Also can take enough contested marks to monster some smaller defender and kick a few easy goals that way. But also from 50m he will convert.
Miller had a great game in the final but apart from that in the last 2 years has done stuff all and a tall flanker is the last thing we need.
We trade Thornton then we risk throwing Setanta/Bower to the wolves. Let them take the 3rd banana and Thornton and Lance take the first 2. Then slowly over time we can sort through the youngsters and be in a position to move Lance forward (if there is room or injuries to other forwards) or trade a player.
Buit we are not in the position now. I want Bower and Setanata and Hartlett and the other kids to slowly be introduced and knowing we have Thornton there for support so we dont "burn" some talented kids and erode there confidence some more.
Trading Thornton would place a number of talented tall players at risk of that as they have to rotate "up" to a forward they are either not good enough for (at this stage) or not physically ready (at this stage).
Mojo
I totally understand where you are coming from in relation to protecting our young emerging backmen from the elite forwards, something we failed to do with Livo but I would be thinking along the lines that we have few players that ae a tradeable commodity and unfortunately he is one of them along with Lance.
Strategically would it make sense to chase Polak hard in the PSD making him an offer too good to refuse and if such an arragement can be reached
trading Thornton for a pick 20-25 which can hen deliver us a Houli another key area of deficiency for Carlton which relies too heavily on the one forward to kick us a winning score of his own boot.
At least Polak is a true CHB. Thornton plays too far back from his opponent for my liking and gets found out against fast leading opponents.
Is this a worthwhile strategy for the club?
Have we checked with Fev about Polak?
How are those 2 getting along these days?
Thornton >>>>>>>>>>> Polak
Polak has more talent which means stuff all in football if you wont use it to your advantage. Polak cant kick and makes poor decisions. He has brain explosions.
Taklse a great contested mark. But so does Fish. Polak told Connolly he would wanted to play CHF only. The bloke has problems and one of them is he is gard to coach.
Thornton beats quality players. He did it a number of times this year when he was under the pump. Polak did that as well ... 4 years ago.
For the last 4 years he has been taking up space on the list and pretending he is a footballer. You want to take him in the PSD then fair enough have a crack at him. I know we have spoken to him. Nothing wrong with that. But he is a long long way behind Thornton and most likely will always be.
While Polak has been in a much better team he has not bothered to give his all. Thornton on the other hand has played his guts out. When it gets tough he has been there. Now he wants a reasonable salary in comparison for his performance. I would pay what he is asking. I dont think its to high really.
So pursuing Polak in the PSD is worth a try I suppose.
But dont trade Thornton as well unless it is for a very good trade in our advantage. Not for Houli.
Trade it for Collard or Jetta or Selwood or Proud. Thats players who will add to our list. Houli at 25 is not what you trade Thornton for.
You want a spot in the draft that nets you a very good midfielder. Or dont do it.
Those are my thoughts on it.
They are not really directed at you. More a bit of frustration at a few at the club. I can understand where you are coming from. I just rate Thornton a bit more than you it seems.
Pick 20 to 25 is an okay pick in this draft. Its quite a good pick but if you go through the draft loists you will see the chances of finding a player who is as good as Thornton in the draft is 10 to 20%.
Take pick 22 and 2 either side of it and go back through (making the sample size bigger to smooth out anomolies) each year.
Now the draft is getting better as we get more info and its a great draft but have a look and see.
So 5 picks over the last 10 years. Pick 20 to 24. 50 players and see how many are as good as Thornton is and will be over his career.
20 Kane Cornes
21 Nick Ries
22 Richard Hadley
23 Drew Pertie
24 Luke Ablett
20 Daniel Elstone Hawthorn Bendigo U18 U18 VCFL
21 Matt Maguire St Kilda Geelong U18 U18 VCFL
22 Mark Seaby WC Eagles West Perth WAFL
23 Charlie Gardiner Geelong Sandringham U18 U18 VMFL
24 Steve Johnson Geelong Murray U18 U18 VCFL
20 WILLIAM MINSON
21 BOWMAN NIXON
22 MATTHEW FERGUSON
23 TOM LONERGAN
24 PAUL JOHNSON
I have 2 out of 15 so far around rhe same age as Thornton who are equal or better than Thornton. Go back to 99 and 98 and 97 and keep going.
Add in the better info and better draft. But unless the figure is 30 to 40% its not worth doing as far as looking at whats on offer at that pick.
If its 30 to 40% then the better draft and more info might push it up to 50 plus. But you would still want it more like 75% to trade a player who is ready to go right now and will shield the other youngsters and allow us to develop them at the rate we want.
So go through the picks and you might come to pick 5. Take 3,4,5,6,7, and add all of them up over the years and that might be 40 to 60% who have turned out equal or better than Thornton is.
Then factor in the better draft and thats your pick if you move it to 10 to 12. Which is about whewre I belive he is worth in this draft.
Right where you get a Collard type and the type we need we need.
Again Thorntin is not a gun KP defender. But he is a very good tall defender who can play CHB and FB and does it on qualioty opposition. He is not hidden on the 4th best forward. He does not zone off and get cheap kicks. He does not have guns helping him out or a midfield who drops back and dominates.
Its 1 on 1 for him many times agame. Sometimes he loses a few of them. He has goals kicked on him. But we have the highest I50s of any team in the comp against us. Our defenders are under pressure. Lance attacks and makes it harder for the other players. Lance sets up play but does not make it easy for Thornton.
Yes I do undertstand what people mean about that he would be a very good 3rd tall and could be released onto the HB line and run off and mosnter the 3rd forward. But he is asked to play KP and he does it to a good syandard week after week. He has a down year in 2005. Started slowly this year but his last 10 or so games this year were excpetional.
He is 22. He is improiving and his disposal which has been a problem did geta lot beter as his confidence grew.
Lets get him some support and then evaluate him in a few years when he is 25. If we have a few good defenders then then lets talk about a trade if others have surpassed him or look like they will.
But until we have 2 good KP defenders we are just cutting our own throat by trading the 1 we do have.
If Livo had made it
If Bower makes it
If Setanta makes it or Hartlett
When the ifs are no longer ifs we can do something then if needed.
Getting good KP defenders in the draft is not like getting midfielders. The rate of success is much lower.
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