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PostPosted: Fri Jun 17, 2005 11:07 pm 
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Harry Vallence

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Blueworld, you are 100% correct


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 Post subject: Pagan
PostPosted: Fri Jun 17, 2005 11:09 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Cant wait till Michael Voss gets to the place myself and shoves the widest broom he can through the joint.Supporters,and more importantly sponsers,will be fighting each other to get on the Michael Voss bandwagon.MICHAEL VOSS............The modern day RON BARASSI.Voss is the man to reinvigorate the Carlton Football Club to its former glory.Its only a matter of time.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 17, 2005 11:29 pm 
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Harry Vallence

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Look, Pagan didn't have a lot of say in 2003. He didn't get the chance to wipe the slate clean until 2004. In the two years since 2003, he has taken the club to 10th, a Wizzard Cup Premiership, and bottom. It's a bit of a mixed bag, but I don't think you can call in doom and gloom.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 17, 2005 11:55 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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You gotta see the baaaaaby.

Anyone know when its due? :|

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 1:24 am 
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Robert Walls

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therubbernub wrote:
At the risk of stating the bleeding obvious....

We have no second tier leaders that should now be stepping up.

When you look at the Tigers and Bulldogs they have many players in the 24-27 yo bracket that have played over 100 games that are now excelling. They are being added to the ageing star list that every club has including us.

So the difference in the performance of the 3 sides (Carlton Richmond Dogs) is not so much the coaches but the players ages and experience.

Any Coach knows that you need a mix of experience and talent. We lack both but are really missing the experienced players ATM. The recycled players was an attempt to supplement our youth with some form of experience unfortunately you don't get "Browns and Riewalts" without picks and salary cap room- we had neither. So we ended up with a bunch of experiments all with their limitations. Such players should not be asked nor expected to be leaders, rather if they are to succeed they need to supplement an already talented and experience team structure- eg Martin Pike at Brisbane.

Instead of focusing on Pagans ability to get our team competitive again we should be wondering how we can regain our experience base -lets call it the "lost generation of Carlton".
We can address talent via the draft- but how do you address experience without either going after a name player(and when we do there will be cries of anguish amongst Carlton supporters because we will be percieved to be going down the old Elliot cheque book route therefore it "must" be bad.
Alternatively we go down the route just travelled - the recycled player route- and once again there will be cries of anguish that this route doesnt work either- "just look at our failures" and the lists that we have seen plenty of the last 2 months -the "delist lists" will be paraded around as evidence that this strategy doesnt work either.

Obviously we have to keep trying and turning over our list, this will require patience. It will also require some degree of stability in the football department -otherwise we could have the Pagan strategy taken over by another coach who starts the rebuilding process over again and this just delays the day when the vision becomes a reality.
If we had an unproven coach he would probably be sacked during this rebuild period, but one thing a proven coach brings to the table is a track record that buys him faith and time. That is what this team needs and thats what Pagan will get(well at least from me anyway)


The age/experience arguement is a valid one - and often used when assessing our list - however it conveniently overlooks the fact that Pagan actually got rid of the players on our list that would be within that age/experience group had it not been for Pagan's broom. We rue the fact that we lack experience but conveniently overlook the fact that the coach got rid of said experience. You cant have it both ways - True players like freeborn, hotton, mccormick etc werent world beaters but they were servicable players (not to mention the other names that are often mentioned and the prematurely retired players) - Given that every coach knows that you need an mix of experience and talent to succeed to absolutely decimate the experience levels on a list is astounding. Changes were required on the list no doubt, but the way things were done was questionable to say the least.

As for unproven coaches - all coaches start out as unproven - examples of recent 'unproven' coaches to do reasonably well include worsfold, craig, and roos. Therefore there is no guarantee that the unproven coach would have been sacked by now. Arguably, a younger coach may have had better people management skills - resulting in less team disharmony due to conflict with coaching staff which would have prevented the horror of 2003 (the WORST year in the clubs history) and a few of the discarded players may have remained (90+% of unbiased football supporters will tell you that murphy is better than mcgrath). If we took the absolute WORSE case scenario and the unproven coach was 16th after this year and was sacked - the club would have saved $1.2million+ over the 3 years (assuming 200k for a starting coach which is on the high side, and pagans salary of 600k which is conservative). Quite possibly that figure could be well in excess of 1.5mill saved - which would cover a fair chunk of sponsorship/membership generated as a result of the 'pagan' influence


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 1:46 am 
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Robert Walls

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camelboy wrote:
4thchicken wrote:
600+k/year for 3 years and chances are we will be finishing last this season. In effect we havent progressed on the ladder for 3 years.

Has he been worth it? Unless you have blind faith in the guy or follow the 'mob supporter' mentality, then no he hasnt been worth it. Given our 'financial constraints' we would have been a LOT better investing in a younger coach @ 200k/year and spending the saved 1.2mill elsewhere


That's an interesting way to look at it. And on a pure dollars and cents perspective one could argue a pretty strong case to say you're probably right. But let's not forget the manner in which Denis was signed. Sure the Collins lead board will be responsible for Denis' second contract, but relieving Denis of his duties during his first contract,after Elliott had signed him, was not really an option either. Indeed when Elliott signed Pagan do you think he was considering the points you raised in your post?


1. the original question posed by crazycahn was has pagan been worth the money spent (ie monetary). It had nothing to do with the manner in which he was signed - so to answer the question posed in the thread, he hasnt been worth it for the reasons I stated (its amazing how many people fail to understand a question as simple as
Quote:
PAGAN - Has he been worth it?

2. Collins board appointment of Pagan - basically a bad business decision. The appointment was made too early into the season and during the euphoria following the WC win. Most reasonable people will tell you that you do NOT make important decisions whilst your judgement may be clouded by emotion. In that respect the administration should have at least waited until mid season before extending the tenure. There was absolutely no reason why the re-appointment of pagan needed to be finalised early - popular media did not (and still has not) questioned pagan as a coach, there would have been few attempts to 'poach' pagan at such an early point in the season (particularly given his age) and there were no factions generating instability/speculation in the club with regards to the coaching position. Additionally the 3 year term was excessive particularly given what has been outlined above - a minor contract extension would have been more than sufficient to quell any media speculation that might have existed.
3. The manner in which pagan was signed by elliot - firstly it was a last ditch effort by elliot to save his administration. We ALL know that. Given that it was an attempt to save himself rather than looking out for the interests of the club, do u think he considered the points in my post? of course not - the coaching appointment was made in a matter of days - I dont think many people would say the 'due dilligence' was performed in this instance. The whole pagan appointment was a farce. Secondly, Brittain SHOULD have been retained for 2003 given the appalling injury list of 2002 (at one stage we were down to 23 or 24 available players to pick a team from) - its a pity that football clubs need to be seen to be 'doing something' following a poor season (knee jerk reaction) rather than sitting down to first analyse the whys before making a decision on something (particularly 'supporters/members')


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 2:04 am 
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Robert Walls

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Wojee wrote:
Sydney Blue wrote:
I could have coached this side to its current position on the ladder.
Man who speaks with forked tongue no good for football team


But how would you go next year, and the year after? Which players would you draft, which players would you delist, which players would you talk to from other clubs? How many uncontracted players would think "I'd love the opportunity to play under Sydney Blue"?
you cant categorically state that a young coach would fail to develop a team. Drafting/delisting/trading is subjective as well and pagan has hardly been the master of either of those disciplines. Pagan, like most other people has favourites, and this influences his decisions in the above areas - who is to say that another young coach, or even sydney blue, would not achieve better results based on his 'favourites'? Also, on the subject of uncontracted players - how many players actually say, yes I want to play for coach XXX or I wont play for coach XXX? - Very few players have a real influence on where they may/may not be traded to, or picked up by in the preseason draft etc
People wanted Pagan to perform a miracle, and when he hasn't delivered one due to a terribly unbalanced list bereft of any outstanding talent, these people want to get rid of him.
No one has asked for pagan to perform a miracle. However I dont think its unreasonable to expect tangible improvement in a team following 3 seasons of footy (yes, this one isnt complete yet).

Name any other coach who would have gotten more out of the current list. Are u serious? Obviously naming any coach is pure speculation. Having said that - given that only 5 or 6 players out of 30 odd non first year players could be said to be having anywhere near good or consistent seasons, I dont think it would be hard for any half decent coach to have gotten more out of the list this year.
Name any other coach who could've rebuilt the list while having no early picks and no players of worth with which to make decent trades.
What rebuilding has Pagan done exactly? Draft stevens? - sorry, but any coach could have picked up stevens in the PSD. Draft Walker? - any coach could have done that. Lets talk about real trades/drafting - the only Pagan era players that could be expected to be long term sucesses atm are Fisher, carazzo and Betts. The jury is still out on the rest of them including Teague. 3 long term players in 3 years isnt that great.
Denis himself says Nobody wants to hear about the labour pains, they just want to see the baby, and I think this club is still in it's first trimester.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 2:09 am 
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Robert Walls

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Elwood Blues1 wrote:
From memory everyone was onboard the Pagan bandwagon after the wizard cup and wanted to give him anything to re-sign...

We didnt need the floodmeister in Eade and Terry Wallace wanted the same dollars as Pagan and doesnt have a CV that includes winning flags...whats left Gary Ayres, Spud Frawley,......the only other candidates were assistants like ODonnell, Harvey etc.....


1. I think I've questioned the Pagan appointment for a fair while now.
2. The doggies actually dont flood anywhere near as much as some people think. Eade is also quite an innovative coach, something that our coach lacks
3. Gary Ayres coaching record (bar last year) is actually reasonable. Also what is wrong with choosing an untried coach? - worsfold was an assistant coach, so too was neil craig - are either of these 2 untried assistant coaches disgracing their clubs with inept performances? There is nothing wrong with trying a new coach provided appropriate due dillegence is performed


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 2:35 am 
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Robert Walls

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Wolfe wrote:
Have monitored and prob the thread has gone off the track but i think again people need to look at the wider picture and really know where we are at

Argument of Pagan being paid 600K vs untried Coach 200K

Suggest we at least have a few more facts

Fact Pagan has inherited a list which is way below what he or anyone expected if i am going to access Pagan i will be doing it from 2006 where he has more control on the list and can really have his stamp on.. Then i will be judging his performances based on this critera. Since his been here he has had 2 years of No proper draft choices exceot pick 2 and Priority and i am happy with Walks and also how we landed Stevo. last years draft he did the right thing again which was to hold onto picks 9 and 25 and prob tried to trade to get picks but alas we have very little currency to tradeso i will base my asseesment on the onfield performnce from 2006 onwards.

Perhaps more thought is required rather than rehashing the same old arguements
Draft picks - pagan has always stressed the importance of having people of good character on the list - how then do you explain the drafting of croad, angwin, norman, and mott? All of which had questionable histories PRIOR to being drafted by the club. Pagan proclaims 'youth' but has drafted mature players such as :twisted:MARTYN:twisted:, bannister, kenna and deluca. He has also traded for mature players with limited upside such as harford, johnson, morrell, scotland, mcgrath, chambers and longmuir. For a coach who proclaims youth and good character do u not find it concern that he has effectively wasted 15 selections/spots on the senior list on players that do NOT fulfil the criteria of youth or good character? If half of those players had been 18yo draft picks, we would have been a reasonable chance to 'find' some talent. We all applaud the Raso draft selection as a good way to circumvent the draft penalties - however given that observers were expecting it to take time to rebuild the list, why didnt Pagan employ such a strategy with the last pick in the previous 2 drafts?
Did he really have no control of the list? - he may not have had early draft picks but he definitely DID have control of the list.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 2:43 am 
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Robert Walls

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Sedat wrote:
Wolfe wrote:
Pagan 600K
2003 / 2004 / 2005 Record membership and increased sponsership which i think is largely built around Pagan as being coach
In the Rebuild he now that he has chance this year based on where we will end up can really start to rebuild the list

Untried 200K ie P Rhode / Brittain ect
With our past 3 years form i reckon would have had a drop in say 20% membership so possibly could have been in the 25000 area thats around 7 to 8K potential drop in membership again only speculation

More than speculation: that's exactly what would have happened. Coming off a 930K fine, that might have been catastrophic. Pagan was one of the single biggest factors in getting things back on track off-field, and he's the best bet on the field as well.


Could u provide me with a historical analysis of the dogs membership figures starting from 3 years prior to Rhodes appointment through to this year? And whilst your at it, do the same for adelaide (N.Craig), Hawthorn (clarkson or even shwab), Freo (connelly), WC (worsfold), sydney (roos), williams (port) - In fact, perhaps u could analyse membership figures pre and post appointment of every 'untried' coach in the previous 10 years and tell me how that compares to appointment of established coaches. The membership numbers and 'drops' had it not been for the pagan appointment are nothing more than speculation unless you can prove otherwise using historical data as comparison. Somehow I dont think you could mount an arguement that would convince too many people when you look at the actual numbers


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 2:52 am 
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Trevor Keogh

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In my opinion Dennis Pagan is the perfect man to take Carlton forward.

He will take us out of the rut that John Elliot placed us in.

Ironically, it was JE who signed Denis. Though his motives for the signing were questionable, maybe big jack left us the key to the jail cell he erected around us - Dennis Pagan.

Some people want to rewrite history so that everything Elliot did was bad, but that doesn;t wash with me. He brought great people to the club - parkin, pagan, diesel, sticks+braddles+mots etc.. His initiative was responsible for lots of these things. He also [REDACTED] the club up royally in the end, but people talk like that was his intention and it wasn't.

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 2:53 am 
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Robert Walls

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Bluebernz wrote:

When Collo said we had plenty of C-Z graders he was talking about the quality of our side as it currently stands. Many of these C-Z graders are our young players and have the potential to develop into A-B grade players. They're young and have limited AFL experience... therefore there's no way you can bracket them as A or B grade-players yet. Too say that Collo labelled all of our young players as shit is drawing a long bow.

And as far as how those comments will affect them.... Well, I'm sure if any of them are worth their salt as AFL footballers, Collo's comments should actually spur them on to do better instead of having a deflating effect.


Actually what collo said was referring to the quality of the players on the list. Everyone knows that any list analysis of players must take into account the age/experience of players and where they are in terms of development - you dont compare an 18yo with a 26yo A-grade player. What would u call an 18yo draftee who makes continual progress but needs to spend 1-2 years in the VFL to develop his body/game through the VFL? It would have been sufficient for collo to state that we dont have enough talent - few people would even go below D grade players. To refer to our list as having plenty of C-Z graders is insulting to the players in question as it implies that he has absolutely NO confidence in the majority of the players on the list.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 2:59 am 
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Robert Walls

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Wojee wrote:
I doubt that the players that aren't up to mustard haven't been made well aware behind closed doors that they're in the firing line. It's a cut-throat business and Collo is only saying the same thing that 90% of the football world is saying, we're bereft of talent. The players that currently aren't up to the task at the moment have two choices, either take their chance and do their best to forge themselves an AFL career, or bide their time until they get the chop.
I'm glad that Pagan and Collo are coming out and stating that we're crap, because it's true. Hard nosed men in charge will win out over touchy-feely corporate wankers (Thomas and Buttersssssss) every day in the sporting world.
The day Denis comes out and takes the full blame for a loss (ala Thomas) is the day I start thinking that perhaps he's not the man for the job ahead.



ahh yes, I'm sure you would prefer a coach who can never be questioned and one that never takes any responsibility for his actions. Regardless of what players are drafted, how they develop, consistency of performances and team performance in general - ANY substandard performances are always going to be the players fault


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 3:15 am 
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Bert Deacon
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well coming back to the question 'was Pagan worth it' clearly chicken man you think not - so the can I ask ... is that we payed Pagan too much OR that he was the wrong man for the job?


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 3:17 am 
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Robert Walls

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The Vet wrote:
I, too, am a Pagan fan.

Pagan was a very good caoch at North. He started there at the under 19 level, and developed young players through the club, and eventually coached those players at senior level. He knew everything about those players.

He came to us and knew nothing about our list.

In fact there has been some suggestion he had no idea how bad we were. That first year for him was shattering. To have no draft picks just exacerbated his horror - it meant there was nothing he could do.

All he wanted was to coach Carlton. He understands the jumper, the history, what it means to be Carlton. Remember how he described his first MCG experience as Carlton coach?

He has done what he can with the senior list - 10 wins was extraordinary with what he had - but it simply stuffed us with picks, and misled all of us with that horrible "expectation" thing. I accept that we have gone backwards this year, but I for one enjoyed the pre-season win.

Now he is building from below. The bullants are growing in confidence and playing good footy, winning footy. Senior players are rotated through and the kids are being developed - the O'hailpins, Russell, Blackwell, Hartlet. ....

Mate, this is not about this year and never was - look at Raso - he's next year at best.

I think Pagan is as good as it gets, and we will all be bloody happy we have him when the wins start to roll in. And that will happen. I promise!


You might want some help from Molsey to answer this one (given his family is mainly North supporters).
1. How many north premiership players were 5+ and 10 year+ players? Who were these players?
2. How many of these long term players were 'drafted' per se (as opposed to zone, under 19 etc)
3. What resources did the North recruiting department have in the late 80's/ early 90's? (KB was on record on SEN a few weeks ago that North had one of the best and most resourced recruiting departments in this era taking over from richmond who did it well in the early 80s)
4. What is the average/maximum length of time that a player spends in the under 19s? How much development occurs within this time frame? If this time frame is under 3 years, how has our player development compared?
5.
Quote:
He came to us and knew nothing about our list.

In fact there has been some suggestion he had no idea how bad we were. That first year for him was shattering.
Does that statement not concern you? That a coach would happily take up a 3 year appointment with no knowledge about the playing group - their strengths, weaknesses, abilities, group dynamics etc - where was the due dillegence?


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 3:34 am 
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Bert Deacon
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worth is based on the objective of the coach - and the objective of the coach is 'winning games' short term and long term

it is tough call on Pagan's approach. but look at 2003. it didn't work. there is two possible reasons, the players or the coach. given the poor performance of 2002 (granted there were loads of injuries) it would be hard to blame Pagan. most would conclude the players were not up to it - so what would you do if you were coach, start getting rid of the players 'you' believe are not up to it. that is the easy bit. the next bit is harder building the playing list again. Pagan has been building young lists for a long time, Roos under 19's, Bombers reserves, Roos again and he is doing it again at Carlton.

JE got Pagan to save his arse, the board re-appointed Pagan because they believe there is NO ONE ELSE MORE QUALIFIED TO DO THE JOB - there is a price to be paid when you want to have a successful coach as part of your team. Pagan is definetly worth it ... really who else would want there? I like Terry Wallace and Rocket they are very creative coaches - Pagan is not - but lets not kid our selves they would have been doing the same thing as Pagan (list wise, Wallace picks up Graham from Hawthon .. sound like a familar tactic) - their style may have won us a few more games is what you want to believe, but really do you know that??????

so is Pagan worth it - for now I would say yes, but ultimately we can only know the answer in 3 years time, but judging on our progress so far yes he is worth it, because he is not deluding himself our the supporters, he is getting on with the tough job of having to bottom out before we go up the ladder again

and to those who say we payed too much - yes we could have saved money going for someone else, imagine if Sticks stepped in, most people would be delighted and he would be cheaper, but saving money is not the objective. the objective is too be successful and win short term and long term, we have won more games than expected last year, we won the wizard cup and now for the long term, we need to take some steps back, Pagan knows 'exactly where we are at'


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 3:38 am 
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Robert Walls

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Ciccio wrote:
well coming back to the question 'was Pagan worth it' clearly chicken man you think not - so the can I ask ... is that we payed Pagan too much OR that he was the wrong man for the job?


I'm getting tired so yours will probably be the last post I respond to tonight - I did answer your points previously but to reiterate
1. I would have kept brittain for the extra year.
2. Pagan was paid too much (elliot desperation)
3. As for the man for the job - depends on what you consider the job is. To rebuild I would have been comfortable with him though would prefer someone a lot younger (longevity in a coaching role).
4. In terms of performance, he has not been worth it


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 10:06 am 
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Ken Hunter
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Eliott may have had the interests of Carlton at heart, just as he did with every business venture, and with every buisness venture he almost killed it off!

Pagan is worth it and the reason the baord signed him quick was because they knew there was a lot more pain ahead, sign him, get that crap out of the way so we don't have the ongoing media speculation, now coach and board can concentrate on rebuilding.

Worth every cent. Can you imagine what would be happening with an untried coach right now???? he'd be under extreme pressure to make decisions to save his tenrure. No, we need someone who has done the hard yards, is sure of himself and prepared to take the long term view (which is why it was important to sign him again).

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 10:27 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

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Chicko,

Can I ask how you can get long-term improvement with retreads? It's like trying to get better performance out of a car by putting retreads on it.

You might argue that Pagan could have drafted kids. But if we're a skinny side now then how skinny would we be if we played a completely teenage side?

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 10:59 am 
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Rod Ashman

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Pagan is with us for the next three seasons and will be judged after that. I can't see him going on beyond 08 .

My reservations with him are that:

He appears inflexible and rigid in his thinking

He surrounds himself with assistants who appear not to challenge him or complement him - if he is weak on strategies, get a strategist etc.

He is getting old for a senior coach. Hard to be in touch with players 40 years younger than you

Lacks strategic vision on a game day. As the 98 GF slipped away he did absolutely nothing. He sat and watched - what could he have done? Something, anything. Also in that game against the Bombers a few years back when Nth were about 9 goals up and got rolled, he just watched.

Needs to be more proactive

If we say that our current plight is all the players fault, we can't then give him all the credit for flags when he had the best collection of players in the comp - shared responsibility

At the end of the day is he getting the most possible out of the team


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