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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 4:20 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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I don't mind it, puts the stats into some context....as their web-site states, CD provides the apples, and they are trying to make them into apple pie...a bit cutesy but a fair metaphor...

So he does take into account pressure and hurt factor, both offensively and with respect to torching the ball... not sure this explanation would pass scientific rigour as a coding method for a journal article, but gives you an idea.

http://www.tedsport.com.au/guide/


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 4:24 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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He's got me covered and that's without kicking 4 in a GF.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 4:49 pm 
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Craig Bradley

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ThePsychologist wrote:
What is emphasised for me above all is the importance of a dominant midfield both inside and out.

Forget everything else without a dominant midfield you cannot win premierships.

Thats what really annoys me about missing out on Cotchin etc.


If you wanted to take that a step further, in hindisght (we love that) would you have given West Coast picks 1 and 3 and kept Kennedy. That would've been more value than even Cotchin given where we're at. In directly a Kruezer v Kennedy question. Plus we still may (or may not) have had Sam Jacobs too.

I digress...carry on.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 4:57 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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codswallop...and totally dependent upon two assumptions:

1) JK would have developed to the same level at CFC
2) Big K blowing out a knee, stalling his career.

If you'd seen big Kroooze dominating for the Knights you wouldn't even be entertaining that thought.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 5:00 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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Gilly34 wrote:
codswallop...and totally dependent upon two assumptions:

1) JK would have developed to the same level at CFC
2) Big K blowing out a knee, stalling his career.

If you'd seen big Kroooze dominating for the Knights you wouldn't even be entertaining that thought.


I think Jim is just trying to highlight the fact that everything is easier after the fact.

Pretty sure Jim is a Krooz and Judd fan.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 5:01 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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If we had of held firm in that negotiation instead of needing multiple bike clips on each trouser leg :roll: we should have only ever given them Pick 3 and Pick 20.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 5:03 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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cimm1979 wrote:
Gilly34 wrote:
codswallop...and totally dependent upon two assumptions:

1) JK would have developed to the same level at CFC
2) Big K blowing out a knee, stalling his career.

If you'd seen big Kroooze dominating for the Knights you wouldn't even be entertaining that thought.


I think Jim is just trying to highlight the fact that everything is easier after the fact.

Pretty sure Jim is a Krooz and Judd fan.


Ok, but why bother?....it's kind of like saying you need to put your pants on one leg at a time....hindsight arguments are usually so flawed they add nothing. Unless a clear error (on the available evidence) was made.....then you learn lessons.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:33 pm 
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Craig Bradley

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Gilly34 wrote:
codswallop...and totally dependent upon two assumptions:

1) JK would have developed to the same level at CFC
2) Big K blowing out a knee, stalling his career.

If you'd seen big Kroooze dominating for the Knights you wouldn't even be entertaining that thought.



Was only adding to "Psych's" post re: Cotchin. Just took hindsight a step further and made it Kennedy v Kreuzer.

I was all for 3, 20 and JK at the time of the trade and taking Kreuzer with pick 1 as you would've found at the time in many debates. If IIRC you pumped real hard for Cotchin. Remember a few hard debate with you on it.

Hindsight's a wonderful thing and an interesting discussion point even if a useless one as you said.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:51 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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fraser murphy wrote:
Ted is a big fan of Ted.

I guess Ted is qualified to be a footy manager, CEO and President on TC...


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:59 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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Gilly34 wrote:

Ok, but why bother?........hindsight arguments are usually so flawed they add nothing. Unless a clear error (on the available evidence) was made.....then you learn lessons.


Can't argue with that when looking at draftees.
There's not just No 1's you'll be judged on. 3 picks, minimum. Every year.
Not worth the bother after the fact, but good to discuss and look forward to when we have the No 1 pick.

Reminds me, we've come from a long way back.
Evlaluating the young prospects at 17 and 18 yo was always something to look forward to in the dark years.
What's done is done and we've got at least 3 picks to get right this year.
I still weep over Kennedy...not just because he's shown up plenty of judges.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 7:02 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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Kouta wrote:
fraser murphy wrote:
Ted is a big fan of Ted.

I guess Ted is qualified to be a footy manager, CEO and President on TC...


What is that in reference to?

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 7:45 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Kreuzer's injuries are still arguably far less than what issues Cotchin has had though, incidentally..

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 9:27 am 
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Ken Hunter

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ThePsychologist wrote:
Its a bit late for us know but its interesting (and I agree) that Roos, Malthouse and Matthews would not take a ruck man with early picks. They go for skilled midfielders. Their theory is that ruck man take longer to mature, are harder to judge as a junior (look how many rookies have become top ruck man) I still believe Jacobs was our best pure ruck man, and you go and recruit a top ruck man when they are ready to dominate. Jolly, Mumford, Ottens come to mind. Look at a lot of the sides now.

Collingwood (Jolly) Adelaide (Jacobs) Hawthorn (Hale) Richmond (Maric) Freo (Griffin) Port (Renouf) GWS (Giles) Lions (Hudson). Geelong have been struggling since losing Ottens.

Over the past three years we have developed Hampson, Kruezer, Jacobs (Gone) and still recruited for a lot of money and low draft pick Warnock.

Doenst make a lot of sense. :donk:


..i may be wrong here, but wasn't the ol' Malty coach when pies took fraser with 1st pick?, and they traded a 1st rounder for wood remember,, and lethal was happy enough to grab luey with pick 2 as well.. ..and grabbing rucks that are ready to go can cost you in terms of picks traded and wage $$s..

..Hale went to the hawks cos he wasn't thought of as much, and rightly so.. ..it's the hawks ruck problems, and their usually good coaching that makes him get games and look better than he is.. ..Maric was cast off pretty much and is playing out of his skin, i doubt even the tigers most optimistic hopes were as high as his form [for how long? with such a big workload].. ..Griffin is so-so, and not helping freo's woeful clearance record.. ..renouf and giles are ruck rejects on seriously limited time [again], and hudson is now an honest battler playing for his nestegg..

..only a few years back we were playing setanta and kennedy in the ruck, traded in cloke [a bloody cloke], ackland anbd mclaren.. ..French tried hard for us and we're always appreciative.. ..we got Hampson, a high potential projecty type.. ..Jacobs was a longshot rookie that luckily came good, but many more fail than win in those scenario's.. ..krooze was very young, came on well but possible doubt as to whether we needed him more in ruck or as a kpf had us chase warnock the following year..

..make no mistake, having a good, deep ruck brigade is an asset for any team to have, and harder to orchestrate [and keep] than accumulating mids..

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 1:23 pm 
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Rod Ashman
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Big Kahuna Boot wrote:
ThePsychologist wrote:
Its a bit late for us know but its interesting (and I agree) that Roos, Malthouse and Matthews would not take a ruck man with early picks. They go for skilled midfielders. Their theory is that ruck man take longer to mature, are harder to judge as a junior (look how many rookies have become top ruck man) I still believe Jacobs was our best pure ruck man, and you go and recruit a top ruck man when they are ready to dominate. Jolly, Mumford, Ottens come to mind. Look at a lot of the sides now.

Collingwood (Jolly) Adelaide (Jacobs) Hawthorn (Hale) Richmond (Maric) Freo (Griffin) Port (Renouf) GWS (Giles) Lions (Hudson). Geelong have been struggling since losing Ottens.

Over the past three years we have developed Hampson, Kruezer, Jacobs (Gone) and still recruited for a lot of money and low draft pick Warnock.

Doenst make a lot of sense. :donk:


..i may be wrong here, but wasn't the ol' Malty coach when pies took fraser with 1st pick?, and they traded a 1st rounder for wood remember,, and lethal was happy enough to grab luey with pick 2 as well.. ..and grabbing rucks that are ready to go can cost you in terms of picks traded and wage $$s..

..Hale went to the hawks cos he wasn't thought of as much, and rightly so.. ..it's the hawks ruck problems, and their usually good coaching that makes him get games and look better than he is.. ..Maric was cast off pretty much and is playing out of his skin, i doubt even the tigers most optimistic hopes were as high as his form [for how long? with such a big workload].. ..Griffin is so-so, and not helping freo's woeful clearance record.. ..renouf and giles are ruck rejects on seriously limited time [again], and hudson is now an honest battler playing for his nestegg..

..only a few years back we were playing setanta and kennedy in the ruck, traded in cloke [a bloody cloke], ackland anbd mclaren.. ..French tried hard for us and we're always appreciative.. ..we got Hampson, a high potential projecty type.. ..Jacobs was a longshot rookie that luckily came good, but many more fail than win in those scenario's.. ..krooze was very young, came on well but possible doubt as to whether we needed him more in ruck or as a kpf had us chase warnock the following year..

..make no mistake, having a good, deep ruck brigade is an asset for any team to have, and harder to orchestrate [and keep] than accumulating mids..


Great mythbusting post!


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 4:12 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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Ted Hopkins is being a bit cheeky. He knows there is no one stat that correlates with wins.
But if a team wins Contested possession, disposal efficiency and tackles, they win 95% of games.
Use the first 2 only and its almost 90%.

So the ideal player is really a contested ball winner with high disposal effiiciency. Not an endurance athlete or a speedster. These days you need a combination of all things but someone like Joel Selwood would have the first 2 covered but isnt particularly quick or known for his enormous aerobic capacity.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 4:17 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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buzzaaaah wrote:
Ted Hopkins is being a bit cheeky. He knows there is no one stat that correlates with wins.
But if a team wins Contested possession, disposal efficiency and tackles, they win 95% of games.
Use the first 2 only and its almost 90%.

So the ideal player is really a contested ball winner with high disposal effiiciency. Not an endurance athlete or a speedster. These days you need a combination of all things but someone like Joel Selwood would have the first 2 covered but isnt particularly quick or known for his enormous aerobic capacity.


Scott Pendlebury.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:23 pm 
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Garry Crane
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http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl ... 6388141249

damning that no carlton player on the list

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:46 am 
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Ken Hunter
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Interesting, I wonder how we rated in that stat last year

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