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| And while I am angry....... http://talkingcarlton.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8753 |
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| Author: | keogh [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 9:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | And while I am angry....... |
a huge round of applause to all the betting agencies around Australia who have Carlton at 2.20 to win the spoon. Whilst they are entitled to this honour these odds are bullshit given the fickle nature of footy and all the possibilities for all 16 teams. For all those posters who think we will win the kitchen utensil would you take those odds. Lets stick it right up their collective arseholes. |
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| Author: | tommi [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:18 am ] |
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Golly gosh......... what seems to be the problem Keogh..........? your an angry man aren't you.......always an issue with this.......or that...........! kindest regards tommi actually i've got no idea what your talking about.........but either way.....always a solid contribution from you.........! |
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| Author: | jimmae [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:55 am ] |
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For a simplistic model, think of the basis of a betting agency as a reverse stock market. People buy in, odds drop People avoid, odds rise or maintain So Carlton for the spoon may have originally started at 5 or 6 dollars and quickly dropped to 3.50 or so. Blame the punters 
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| Author: | AGRO [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 11:56 am ] |
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tommi wrote: your an angry man aren't you.......always an issue
with this.......or that...........!.....! I have handed over the baton. 
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| Author: | 79Vintage [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 12:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: And while I am angry....... |
keogh wrote: a huge round of applause to all the betting agencies around Australia who have Carlton at 2.20 to win the spoon.
Whilst they are entitled to this honour these odds are bullshit given the fickle nature of footy and all the possibilities for all 16 teams. For all those posters who think we will win the kitchen utensil would you take those odds. Lets stick it right up their collective arseholes. ..we might find some bullshit up there... 
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| Author: | Ads [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 12:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Kough is only joking guys, no one could possibly be that niave, surely? Carlton are favourites for the spoon for obvious reasons and whether any of us carlton fans like it or not, that is the reality at the moment. Be 3 years or so before we are even close to looking at a top 8 position. Besides Carlton, who else would be a candidate? Grow up a bit keogh |
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| Author: | Elwood Blues1 [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 12:21 pm ] |
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Based on last seasons form plus our form up until the West Coast game I would say they are fair odds..there are about 4-5 teams I would rate as spoon chances..I predict we win about 5-6 games.... |
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| Author: | dannyboy [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 12:30 pm ] |
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we could win 4 games we could win 8 games we could win tattslotto we could discover gold in them thar hills Eureka the kids are playing its just a rehearsal for thwne the lads are men and the men are gone and maybe the coach is brimming with genius or with pimples but heck i can feel that first little toe tapping of excitement I can't wait til Kennedy starts to play and to see murph and i think I'm in love with Fisher or maybe its simmo, just to make Molsey jealous and if we make some miracukous leap this year remember it had nothing to do with Denis! I love it two weeks out its like stripping for sex - all excitment without that sort of flaccid sense of disappointment. Go Blues Jesus i hope we wallop someone this year - any @#$%&! one! But I'm just watching the kids, and my ticker. age and all that! |
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| Author: | keogh [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 2:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Hey Seagull,I am 43 grown up and wise and a maths teacher who understands and is qualified in the field of probability.Given the nature of our game,injuries,offield dilemmas such as captains going for swims and players pulling knives on girlfriends promoting potential instability within ranks,presidents sick of seeing their boys not fulfill their potential so sacking the coach and the simple fact that Hawthorn,Collingwood,Fremantle,Port Adelaide,Kangaroos,Essendon* and Richmond as always are also potential bottom of the table candidates to offer $2.20 for The Blues to win the spoon is stupid.It should be around $6 and roughly the same price as the Flag favourite which happens to be St Kilda at 5.50 as we speak. If you are going to attack my character at least have some facts to back it up.Over to you. |
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| Author: | 79Vintage [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 2:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Keogh, you have to balance your logic of probability with the other factor bookmakers work on, the volume of money a price will attract and has attracted from punters & this result for Carlton for the spoon is also balanced against the takings for the other 15 results, so losses for any one result is limited. That's why Carlton are so short 'favourites' for the spoon. At $5 for the spoon, bookmakers would take so much money, their loss on that result would be too great & not balanced against the money they take on the 15 other results. When this happens to too large a degree, a bookmaker is unable to lay off against their own potential losses with other bookmakers. ie. to balance a loss on a result bookmakers bet on that result with other bookmakers. Welcome to the world of the bag. |
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| Author: | jimmae [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 3:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Haha sorry dude I wasn't aware of your professional background
It was early, I just played a straight bat
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| Author: | Ads [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 3:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
The current Carlton team is as bad at the Fitzroy team of 1996, thats reason enough to be $2.20 for the spoon. IF anything it should be below 2 |
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| Author: | dannyboy [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 3:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
or not |
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| Author: | keogh [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 4:45 pm ] |
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Here is how a market is framed for the ignorant. To make a profit the Bookie must set odds that on average don't favour punters.They do this by inflating the odds and overestimating the probabilities of each outcome. The probability of a certain event has a numerical value of one.The probability of an impossible event occuring is zero and the odds of anything else lie between these 2 values.So unless the world self combusts tomorrow it is a certain event that a team will take home the trusty spoon. The current odds for the spoon for each team at Sportsbet is as follows as we speak Adelaide 151 Bris 35 Carl 2.20 Coll 15 Ess 8 Freo 35 Geel 126 Haw 5 Kangas 9 Dees 21 PA 23 Tiges 7 Saints 151 Swans 81 WC 151 WB 35 ODDS for $1 INVESTED When you convert these odds to fractions(ESS 8 means 1 over  and add them up you should get the value of one.In normal circumstances you get an answer of around 1.3 and the point three over is the Bookies profit.
So in actual fact bookies cheat if you are a mathematical purist. Having added the odds of the spoon for each of the 16 combatants the total was 1.59 way over what it should be.And the main reason is that Carltons odds on its own is around .45 of that total of 1.59. This market should be changed completely and the odds of all the teams changed so the cumulative total is closer to one.The bookies are going to make a killing on this one.I could frame a new market but I cant be bothered as I believe I have well and truly proved my point and I hope you have all learnt something.PARTICULARLY YOU SAMMY SEAGULL. |
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| Author: | keogh [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 4:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Here is how a market is framed for the ignorant. To make a profit the Bookie must set odds that on average don't favour punters.They do this by inflating the odds and overestimating the probabilities of each outcome. The probability of a certain event has a numerical value of one.The probability of an impossible event occuring is zero and the odds of anything else lie between these 2 values.So unless the world self combusts tomorrow it is a certain event that a team will take home the trusty spoon. The current odds for the spoon for each team at Sportsbet is as follows as we speak Adelaide 151 Bris 35 Carl 2.20 Coll 15 Ess 8 Freo 35 Geel 126 Haw 5 Kangas 9 Dees 21 PA 23 Tiges 7 Saints 151 Swans 81 WC 151 WB 35 ODDS for $1 INVESTED When you convert these odds to fractions(ESS 8 means 1 over and add them up you should get the value of one.In normal circumstances you get an answer of around 1.3 and the point three over is the Bookies profit.
So in actual fact bookies cheat if you are a mathematical purist. Having added the odds of the spoon for each of the 16 combatants the total was 1.59 way over what it should be.And the main reason is that Carltons odds on its own is around .45 of that total of 1.59. This market should be changed completely and the odds of all the teams changed so the cumulative total is closer to one.The bookies are going to make a killing on this one.I could frame a new market but I cant be bothered as I believe I have well and truly proved my point and I hope you have all learnt something.PARTICULARLY YOU SAMMY SEAGULL. |
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| Author: | keogh [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 4:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
So good I sent it twice even it was by accident.What is the probability of that happening. |
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| Author: | dannyboy [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 5:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
so this 'while', then, are we talking a long while?
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| Author: | keogh [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 5:07 pm ] |
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I think your banging of your head on your desk has got to you Dan |
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| Author: | dannyboy [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 5:24 pm ] |
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Na, keeps me sane |
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| Author: | simmo [ Mon Mar 13, 2006 8:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Personly, i love taking on the bookies, and in this case just about every journo in the country, who all have the blues for the spoon. My cash will be on teams like the roo's or port. |
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