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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:59 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Dominator7 wrote:
assuming we end up with 1, 20, 38

trade hendo & 20 for pick 2, and 39

leave us with 1,2 and 39

then look to trade back into second round
say walker and 39 for mid 20 pick

pick weitering, schache and greg clarke


:lol: :lol: :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 10:03 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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Good to know we have been flowering up the draft since 1994, taking Mark Cullen at pick 33, instead of Michael O'loughlin, who was taken by Sydney at Pick 40, a made keen Carlton supporter and desparate to get to us.


Inducted into the AFL Hall of Fame tonight


:thumbsup:

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 10:09 pm 
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Garry Crane
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looks like we can add yarran to the trade table

yarran and 4th rounder for geelongs first and 2nd rounder

1,2, 10-12, 25, 30

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 10:16 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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:eek:

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 10:50 pm 
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Stephen Silvagni

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AGRO wrote:
Good to know we have been flowering up the draft since 1994, taking Mark Cullen at pick 33, instead of Michael O'loughlin, who was taken by Sydney at Pick 40, a made keen Carlton supporter and desparate to get to us.


Inducted into the AFL Hall of Fame tonight


:thumbsup:


Sad to hear his passion for Carlton, who we must say Carlton committed pick 41 for him.

If only...

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:24 am 
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Harry Vallence

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AGRO wrote:
Good to know we have been flowering up the draft since 1994, taking Mark Cullen at pick 33, instead of Michael O'loughlin, who was taken by Sydney at Pick 40, a made keen Carlton supporter and desparate to get to us.


Inducted into the AFL Hall of Fame tonight


:thumbsup:


Is tbat the Mark Cullen who played for the doggies?


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:27 am 
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Robert Walls

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Dominator7 wrote:
assuming we end up with 1, 20, 38

trade hendo & 20 for pick 2, and 39

leave us with 1,2 and 39

then look to trade back into second round
say walker and 38 for mid 20 pick

pick weitering, schache and greg clarke


Nope. Assuming current ladder positions, I'd go

trade murphy to cats for pick 7
trade hendo to dogs for pick 10
trade walker with 38 to north for pick 24

Then look to trade pick 1to another bottom 4 club for a well performed, player that will be ≤23 at start of 2016 i.e. GCS (pick 2 + martin/omeara/swallow), melbourne (pick 4 + brayshaw/petracca) or maybe Brisbane (pick 3 + mcstay? - not much else appeals),

Best case scenario - martin + pick 2

Separately, offer pick 24 for aish & poach the best available GWS player via PSD (i.e. buntine? assuming coniglio/shiel are unreasonable for PSD)

Net result...
pick 2 - parish (181cm mid, line breaking, elite skills)
pick 7 - schache (199cm strong marking KPF)
pick 10 - curnow (191cm athletic utility)
pick 20 - rice (184cm, mid/HBF, F/S)
pick 56 - silvagni (192cm, third tall, F/S)
martin (185cm, former mini-draft, mid, explosive, good skills - 21 at start of 2016 season)
aish (184cm, former pick 7, mid, accumulator, elite kicking - 20 at start of 2016 season)
buntine (189cm, ormer pick 5, HBF, leadership, good skills - 22 at start of 2016 season)

backs -> buntine
mids/utilty -> parish, rice, martin, aish, curnow
forwards -> schache, silvagni

Rookie list -> at least 2 project ruckmen

And if yarran needs to go, either load up for a top 10 pick, or be ambitious and either trade for a draft pick + player from top ranked side such as mitchell + 16 (swans), scharenberg + 15 (pies), hartung + 13 (hawks) or an exceptional player in return i.e. shiel (GWS)


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 1:19 am 
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Rod Ashman
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No. Pick 1 = Weitering. We need Weitering. He is the saviour.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 8:08 am 
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Ken Hunter

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..a lot of very, very hopeful trade scenario's in here.. ....personally I'm against most suggestions.. ....I think we need to take our time/medicine once and for all.. ....the only trade I'd push hard for (and is a long shot) would be our first and second rounder (figuring us as spooners) to gws for Shiel and McCarthy.. ....chuck in usual steak knives for giggles..

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 9:23 am 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2006 2:01 pm
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[quote="AGRO"]Good to know we have been flowering up the draft since 1994, taking Mark Cullen at pick 33, instead of Michael O'loughlin, who was taken by Sydney at Pick 40, a made keen Carlton supporter and desparate to get to us.


Inducted into the AFL Hall of Fame tonight


:thumbsup:[/ :banghead:


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 10:21 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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malleefowl wrote:
No. Pick 1 = Weitering. We need Weitering. He is the saviour.


Agree, get this kid and SOSS/Rice as F/S picks, instant rebuild! Add a couple of runners from later in the draft. Probably the best recruit we could get wouldnt come from the Draft, we need better fitness/medical people, too many of our better players seem to be permanently injured. I know all clubs have injuries but seriously, how long have Kreuz, Jamo, Daisy, Hendo, Walker spent in the treatment room. No point having players that cant play, invest in better treatment and conditioning to keep our better players on the park!

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 10:41 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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Pafloyul wrote:
Dominator_7 wrote:
Dukes wrote:
dane wrote:
After less than half a season it's fair to say last year was an average draft.


Jake Lever
Nakia Cockatoo


dane was being his usual sarcastic self Dukes lol


Yes but his sarcasm is ill directed and serves no purpose. He's not being witty or pertinent.


You and cj69 should form the no danes club!

I think you could convince a few more too...

Image

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:22 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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Our rebuild will on going for at least 3 to 4 years if it's to be done well.
We're in a mess, we must develop team skill , fitness, cultural and importantly leadership with proper nurturing and mentoring as and when the players as need arises. Others wise we'll lose them just as quick as we acquire them.
Long way to go , but SOS is a very good start and he'l have three of his boys thrown into the mix as well. We luck and some astute selections across the picks and plenty of support at all levels fie the lads coming in. Go Baggers
Ciao

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 1:13 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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bmaurizio wrote:
Our rebuild will on going for at least 3 to 4 years if it's to be done well.
We're in a mess, we must develop team skill , fitness, cultural and importantly leadership with proper nurturing and mentoring as and when the players as need arises. Others wise we'll lose them just as quick as we acquire them.
Long way to go , but SOS is a very good start and he'l have three of his boys thrown into the mix as well. We luck and some astute selections across the picks and plenty of support at all levels fie the lads coming in. Go Baggers
Ciao


and you know what - if this were to happen I might just start to get excited again in those four years of serious rebuilding of this [REDACTED] club.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 2:04 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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4th I thought you were undervaluing our players, then you up and rate some of the best young talent in the land on other lists as worth a 2nd round pick!

Is Weitering that much better? I doubt it.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 7:29 pm 
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Robert Walls

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jimmae wrote:
4th I thought you were undervaluing our players, then you up and rate some of the best young talent in the land on other lists as worth a 2nd round pick!

Is Weitering that much better? I doubt it.


If you were referring to aish - then pick 24 isn't too far off (based on docherty trade).

If you were referring to yarran trade - yes that is a stretch but yarran is one of the few players that could push a club into genuine contention/over to a flag - he is also young enough to have significant value. So long as yarran is under contract, it is what we should be asking for.

If you were referring to martin + pick 2 for pick 1 - that isn't far off trading the hawks/freo trade many years ago. Freo lost out b/c croad went home and the hawks snagged mitchell but if you ignore those 'minor' details, the trade was basically pick 3 KPF + pick 10 KPD for picks 1, 20 & 36 (and in most cases, pick 36 is journeyman).

It is worth noting that the 2 KPP yielded 220+ games each - for most years, that would outweigh pick 1, 20 & 36.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 8:10 pm 
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Stephen Silvagni

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Location: Bondi Beach
4thchicken wrote:
jimmae wrote:
4th I thought you were undervaluing our players, then you up and rate some of the best young talent in the land on other lists as worth a 2nd round pick!

Is Weitering that much better? I doubt it.


If you were referring to aish - then pick 24 isn't too far off (based on docherty trade).

If you were referring to yarran trade - yes that is a stretch but yarran is one of the few players that could push a club into genuine contention/over to a flag - he is also young enough to have significant value. So long as yarran is under contract, it is what we should be asking for.

If you were referring to martin + pick 2 for pick 1 - that isn't far off trading the hawks/freo trade many years ago. Freo lost out b/c croad went home and the hawks snagged mitchell but if you ignore those 'minor' details, the trade was basically pick 3 KPF + pick 10 KPD for picks 1, 20 & 36 (and in most cases, pick 36 is journeyman).

It is worth noting that the 2 KPP yielded 220+ games each - for most years, that would outweigh pick 1, 20 & 36.


Good analysis 4th.

The weight of numbers....it all has to be in our long term benefit.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 8:30 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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The gap between pick 1 and 2 most years is not that significant as to warrant any of the names mooted. Some exceptions would be 2005, 2008 (had Melbourne not been fools) and perhaps last year, though I accept some rate in the same bracket of talent as Petracca.

But in terms of average ROI, the difference between 1 & 2 would be about pick 20-25 IMO. The Croad trade is irrelevant for comparison as it was two players for picks, but it is another example of a draft where you would value the top 3-4 picks much higher than the rest, and thus perhaps steer clear of the trade Freo made.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:18 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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malleefowl wrote:
No. Pick 1 = Weitering. We need Weitering. He is the saviour.

Excuse my ignorance but who is this weitering?

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:27 pm 
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Robert Walls

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:44 am
Posts: 3136
jimmae wrote:
The gap between pick 1 and 2 most years is not that significant as to warrant any of the names mooted. Some exceptions would be 2005, 2008 (had Melbourne not been fools) and perhaps last year, though I accept some rate in the same bracket of talent as Petracca.

But in terms of average ROI, the difference between 1 & 2 would be about pick 20-25 IMO. The Croad trade is irrelevant for comparison as it was two players for picks, but it is another example of a draft where you would value the top 3-4 picks much higher than the rest, and thus perhaps steer clear of the trade Freo made.


of course the gap b/n pick 1 & 2 isn't that great - the thing is though, clubs get tempted at the idea of having first choice/access to the best. Historically, the best player is seldom picked at #1.

Which is my point exactly, we shouldn't be tied to the idea of weltering at all costs. Weitering will be great, but be greedy and offer up pick 1 for a significant talent injection. Whilst you wouldn't expect GCS to say yes, we should ask the question.

In that regard, the freo example is completely relevant - the value of croad/mcpharlin wouldn't be that far off pick 2 + martin (or equivalent). Particularly given that they were both KPP. The point is if we can get a 2:1 deal on top end talent WITHOUT a significant drop down the draft order, we should take it.


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