aboynamedsue wrote:
Of all the players we brought in at the end of last year only Jaksch, Boekhorst, Foster & Fields look potential AFL players to me. I wouldn't classify any of them as "can't miss" prospects, but each have AFL attributes and should make it if they are prepared to work hard enough, have some luck with injury and are developed properly by the club.
DVR, Smith, Dick, Whiley, Tutt, Jones, Walsh, Gowers & Russell don't look likely to me.
DVR & Smith should have another year to prove me wrong, and I wouldn't mind if Walsh was given another year on the rookie list. Maybe Gowers too.
But Jones, Tutt, Whiley & Dick are looking like list cloggers to me. I think they all have contracts beyond 2015 so it will cost us to delist them at the end of season 2015. I would be looking to find a way to pay those 4 out and still balance the books. If that's not achievable, then we're really handcuffed in how much we can improve our list before 2016.
Contracts aside, my delistings from the primary list would be - Jones, Tutt, Whiley, Dick, Ellard, Watson, Warnock, Carrazzo (ret), Judd (ret). And trade Yarran if we can get a draft pick inside the top 20 for him.
That would create 10 vacant spots on our list. Wood gets one of those spots, Johnson might be a chance for another, and another couple are taken by a targeted delisted free agent and a PSD selection (hopefully we have the #1 PSD pick and can shake a quality Vic kid out of an interstate club).
That would give us 6-7 ND picks. That's a lot, particularly when the talent pool is reputed to be shallow, but I think it's the way to go.
Realistically though, when contracts and TPP are factored in, some - if not all - of the "pre-fab 4" (ie. Jones, Tutt, Whiley & Dick) will hang on and so we'll only have 3-5 draft picks to play with (unless we decide to delist Giles, which might be on the cards if he can't get back on the field before this season is over).
I would keep Sheehan, Byrne & Fields on the rookie list. Wood gets promoted to primary list. Johnson either gets delisted or promoted to primary list (that's still in the balance I reckon, it may come down to what happens with our other delistings). Russell probably gets delisted, while Walsh & Gowers probably just hang on for a 2nd year on the rookie list.
I like a lot of that post, ABNS. Makes a ton of sense.
The only part I read which I had a double take on was Smith. You've obviously seen more of him at VFL level than me so I will defer, but the limited view I've had of him at AFL level was that while he had a lot of work in front of him, he didn't look out of place at the level. Neat skills, composure and seemed to find his way to the right spot.
Boekhorst will obviously get his chances but to date doesn't inspire confidence he'll make it. Lacks composure and is not instinctive. Tutt, Whiley, Dick don't seem to have anything to offer. Jones I would keep for next year (which as you point out is a given anyway given his contract status).