Mikkey only because you said you were happy to discuss Pagan...

I posted this over in the team changes bit... Could you please give me your opinions on this. Just curious..ust to get an insight on your Pagan views... I'm still in the balnce though the scales are tipping....
Here it is .......

"""Denis Pagan drops JR for what would of been the biggest moment in his Football Life. Carlton Vs Collingwood at the G...

Why drop the guy this week is the question i ask ? Will the change of Wiggins for JR make that much of a difference and get us over the line ??

No disrespect to Wiggins at all as he is a player who i hope makes it at Carlton, but this week.

This change to me is one of the reasons that i am starting to doubt Pagan. We talk about the youth policy ( Wiggins isn't old i know ) and then we drop a kid for older kid at a time when you as the coach have the ideal opprtunity to say to a young player, i'm showing confidence in you and i'm giving you one more week, a big week, a big game. Give me something JR this week and make me keep you in the side..

Pagan is getting desperate and the only reason i believe he brought a player like Wiggins into the side is to help bottle this game up. make it messy and scappy and maybe steal a win or get an honourable loss.

I'm sure i could be wrong and maybe Pagan has already spoken to JR, maybe he did it 3 weeks ago when he introduced him to the team, but on face value i'm not happy about it.

The above all said and done, i really hope Wiggins has a great game and justifies his inclusion. The conditions might suit a more physical player and Wiggins being a bigger body might just be better value to the team.

I'll be watching this game very very closely come Sunday, not to see how we perform on the park but how we perform in the box.

Lets see what you've got Denis , proactive , confident or reactive... """

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I know a little secret. And i'm not sharing.

It's fascinating isn't it, does this hurt JR's development but help Wiggins development or does it help JR's development and hurt Wiggins development, or does it hurt the development of both or help the development of both?

On the face of it I would like to see JR in the side, but we have had people in this thread saying that Wiggins should be given chances as well.


Glad De Luca is out though.

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Hi Tractor, happy to oblige.

My personal opinion is:

1) I do understand that Denis does not play a young guy like JR every game. Most clubs don't - it seems to be quite a normal thing in the "youth development side" of things. JR has not set the world on fire (yet) and a few games in the 2's who are flying will give him more time on the ball andbuild his confidence. Only freaks like Murphy go straight into a team and stay there.

2) looking at the Pies line up and the weather forecast I think an experienced physical strong player with good chasing and tackling abilities might help shutting down their delivery to their forward line which has been on fire lately.

3) Going for youth does not mean you want to set yourself up for a flogging which is not very healthy for the youngens. We are already lining up with a lot of young players and are bringing Josh in for his first game. You need a couple of experienced bodies too.

So all in all quite happy with the team lining up. Big question is, where is Lance going to play? Where is his best position for this game in particular? Well, we will see on Sunday.

Edited to add: One area I am critical of Denis are some of his match day moves. E.g. that he waited to qtr time to move Whits off Croad. Should have happened after 10 minutes in the first.

I agree with Synbad to a degree, that there are only 3 reasons why a kid never develops

1) his attitude was poor
2) He had insufficient talent to be drafted (ie, a bad draft choice)
3) the club didn't invest sufficient time or effort in his development

Angwin et.al fall under the first category. If Wiggins gets delisted after this year, it won't be because of category 1.

For example, getting 2) or 3) wrong for an early pick like Russell is inexcusable

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Love Cricket? Love me

I think injury (severity/occurance i.e. how many times?) can have a big say in a kids ability to develop.

Okay so I get it now, like Lance, like Campo, like Kouta, Denis is now bad, no redeeming qualities, just a nasty little man destroying the chance of kids making the grade - what next greed? Senile? Watch this space, see the campaign against Denis grow.... its his fault now, every player who doesn't make it is because Denis doesn't know what he is doing.

Does that go for every player who has never made it and every coach?

How many players has Sheedy ruined over the course of his coaching career? Thousands? Barass? Hafey?

See, I get BV - he's talking about what he seens as things that could be done better or not done well. Not blame, not hate, just an evaluation of what he thinks could be done better or is done poorly. Fine. But at no stage does he imply this is a deliberate or maliscious (?) or desperate or negligent (could you claim negligence of you're saying Denis is now at fault with the careers of these kids?) act.

Is Denis really ruining the careers of players like Sporn, Livo and any other player on that list that does not make it. Add Becker? Kenna? Harford?

Fine.

But every kid who does make then must be his fault.

So thanks to Denis we have

Walker
Murphy
AB
Carrots
Lance
Fev
Houla
Betts
French
Fisher
Bannister
T-Bird
Stevens
Scotland
McLaren


Unknowns (too early to call) - will Denis make them or ruin them?

Kennedy
JR (though he has been dropped so that'll probably be the ruin of him)
Irish boys
Rookies
Wiggo (though he is playing this week)
Livo
De Luca
Bower
Raso
Edwards
Bryan
Hartlett

anyone else?

Kouta - obviously his decline in Denis's fault. Before Pagan came Kouta was a star.

Others Denis seems to be ruining
Teague - made him slow
Sporn - Made him slow
Livo - made him indecisive, Livo's bowels was pre Denis so we can't blame him for that, but his continuing back problems?

Its all black and white isn't it.

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This type of slight is alien in the more cultured part of the world - Walsh. Its up there with mad dogs, Englishmen and the midday sun!

yep... good point... we can add that to the list

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Love Cricket? Love me

without meaning to be overly condescending, thats probably the most flippantly dismissive and absurd post I've ever read. What point are you making? That people who object to things are fanatics who are incapable of comprehending the depth of a situation? Ironic, given that you consistently dismiss the complexity of the development argument.

Perhaps you need to take your own medicine, dannyboy. Actually try and comprehend the depth of my (and other) contentions about development without being flippantly absolute and embarrassingly threadbare for substance

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Love Cricket? Love me

Yeah it's a shame that Brits gave that kid Fevola the flick. Looked like he had a bit of talent. Wonder what happened to him.

Add Marc Bolton, Bullen and Henneman. Pretty sure they are Pagan's fault too.

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Working alone. At the coalface. Scott's gone for lunch! Said he would be back in 30 mins.

Tryant - maybe you should work out who i am referring to before you take it personally. yes it is flippant because to make a statement that a kid that doesn't make it is Denis's fault is flippant!!!!

Did I say you made that statement? No.

Did I say BV did? No.

But someone did. and it is the dumbest statement I have heard becauee of course a coach is responsible and not. Its so simple to say and so silly because it says nothing.

If you want to talk specifics okay - so if Wiggins does not make it as a footballer is it true to say it is Denis's fault? Why not his mother's? or a tach at School? Or that damn opponent that beat him?

If statements as flippant at that are going to be made then yes, I will reply flippantly.

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This type of slight is alien in the more cultured part of the world - Walsh. Its up there with mad dogs, Englishmen and the midday sun!

I don't take things personally..... I just love an argument where there are good arguments coming the other way

I agree that Synbad's post was a bit throw-away.... but I took that as a high level summary of some of the things a few of us were saying. I didn't read Synbad's post as introducing a new argument.

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Love Cricket? Love me

so you agree then that any player that does not make the grade is Denis's fault?

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This type of slight is alien in the more cultured part of the world - Walsh. Its up there with mad dogs, Englishmen and the midday sun!

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Love Cricket? Love me

You said 2 reasons in the original post.

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I know... I thought of another one while making the list, and forgot to change the number above

but, like all good strategists, I'm flexible and think on my feet

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Love Cricket? Love me

1) his attitude was poor
2) He had insufficient talent to be drafted (ie, a bad draft choice)
3) the club didn't invest sufficient time or effort in his development

okay thats 3 reasons (injury is 4 - combination of any 2 or more 5,
personal problems that affected atttiude rather than 'poor', bad luck, competiton from others with more talent, team balance, personality clash with coach or other players, lack of leadership group from older players, moved interstate, loss of confidence and lack of mental strength to deal with it - say the Ian baker Finch syndrome, and many, many more)

at least your 3 allows for other factors rather than the simplisitc - if a kid fails its Denis's fault.

Now it may be - partly Denis's fault, partly the club's, partly the players, partly partly partly... But solely (8))?

Do you blame Denis for Kenna? Becker? Bowyer?

Is talent so even then - you're drafted you have talent that's the end of the story? Why do coaches ever trade or delist then except for age?

Why tank at all? We do not need to build a super list, any drafted kid will do.

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This type of slight is alien in the more cultured part of the world - Walsh. Its up there with mad dogs, Englishmen and the midday sun!

throw in injuries and change "poor" to "insufficient" in reason 1 and I've got all yours covered in the 4. all of yours are just subsets of mine (+injuries)

Obviously talent plays a big part in how far a kid goes... and development can't turn a Wiggins into a Judd.... but it can take a Wiggins into a productive first team player.. like Johnson at Collingwood.

and Danny, if a kid was ever going to get a spot in a first team and keep it, it would be in the Carlton sides circa 2002-2006. Wiggins certainly doesn't wont for attitude, he has had some injuries..... but he's competing with a lot of other players (retreads mostly) for spots, and Denis (generally) has preferred to shuffle retreads around than give a Wiggins a regular spot and let him make it.

I'm not arguing that Wiggins is a gun player...... but compared to the re-treads he's no slouch and ... gee.... we finished last last year with retreads and will probably back it up again this year..... but gee, I'm glad we have some depth of mature bodies... you know.... so we can keep losing with dignity....

Denis inherited a list with a lot of average players, and many of them will be delisted as average or worse players. Not only that, but be brought in several average players from other clubs that either have been or will shortly be delisted as well.

thats just not good planning... and THAT'S all Pagan

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Love Cricket? Love me

Need some stats from Jarusa here. How many kids drafted by clubs each year never make it to 50 games? I would guess a very high percentage. I think somebody mentioned the average "life" of an AFL footballer is 3-4 years?

We are talking about very raw young talent in most cases. Impossible to judge exactly who will make it and who will not. I guess there are even many top 10 draft picks who do not make it (or only a limited career). Even top draft picks can disappoint. Goddard was no. 1 and has not set the world on fire.

So looking at our list and the progress of some late picks like Kade, AB, Carazzo, Fischer I think the football department has done a good job.

There are things you can critisize Denis for, but looking at the cattle at the start of 2003, the very limited draft picks available and what we now have to build on - I think he and the recruiters have done a good job.

The only questionmark is the big influx of recycled players at the start of 04. But then again: a) What was left in the draft at the time? b) Was it not important to get rid of some of the dead wood at the club at the time (with attitude problems) c) I would not be surprised if the Board told Pagan to try to stop the bleeding back then.

I really can't see why people are gone so "balck and white" on Denis. Maybe we get to a point where a circuit breaker is necessary and a change the right thing, but some of the stuff I read here....

Did people really expect we would improve a lot so quickly? Rebuilding does take time.

Tyrant,

Just wanted to ask a question or two on 3)

Was interested to see that many TAC cup coaches are now training AusKick coaches the basic fundamentals of the game because they believe by the time a player reaches TAC cup level it's too late to change these basic fundamentals

I have also heard Terry Daniher (When at St.Kilda) say that he can teach a Nick Reiwoldt very little and they as coaches or assistant coaches can only add the polish to such players. Positioning etc.

I don't think for a minute that St.Kilda (or Fremantle for another example) had much to do with the development of Reiwoldt or Pavlich

Both of these players would have succeeded at any AFL club, regardless of any player development program in place.

Likewise for a lower pick like Sherman. What has he learnt in the 12-16 months he has had in the game that others low picks in the draft have not?

A player like Wiggins’s development is not a fault of the club or Simon but a lack of ability to begin with. Wiggins (And I love the kids endeavor) doesn't not do and never has done any part of the game to a high level. He might be able to play back pocket in a great side but at the moment we can’t afford to carry anyone.

If you look at any AFL club and you will see some players develop while other will flounder.

Example: Western Bulldogs.

Gilbee, McMahon, Harris and Cross have all bloomed, while Birss, Faulkner, Power and McGuiness have progressed very little if any at all.

Question Pagan’s tactics on game day if you wish but I for one don’t think that Denis is to blame for the development of the younger players.

The only point I think that senior coaches can have a huge impact is with

1) his attitude was poor

And I think we have seen this with the improvement in Fevola.

Anyway I guess I better ask a question.

What do you think a club can actually do to help develop a player?

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Working alone. At the coalface. Scott's gone for lunch! Said he would be back in 30 mins.

but that is your call on Johnson not mine. I would rather have Johnson than Wiggins or Ryce Shaw to Sporn. Or Richards to De Luca.

To me, the retread argument is about should a team have middle age players to help the kids. I think they should.

I think Denis is really covering time while the kids he wants, develop.



You want him to play all the kids. I do not. I have always disagreed with you on the idea that you cannot harm a kid by playing him/them. I disagree. Just as i disagree with people who accelerate their kids until we now have 15/16 year olds entering university. Some manage, some do not. I always am saddened by the do nots - expecially when they obviously had talent/skill/a gift.

So while you then see Denis as ignoring/not developing the kids and using the retreads instead

I see Denis as buying the kids time. Giving them a chance to develop, getting this club through four or five years while the list is improved and the kids are developed. BV seeing a change this year, a reason could be that Denis thinks the kids he has had for two or so years are ready for a change (development). this is not being flippant. i was deadly serious about how you can develop creativity - Tex's dad said Tex felt Denis had freed him up more this year - is that because Denis has correctly developed the kid to the point where now is the right time to free him up some?

Aren't you are really arguing 'I disagree with Denis developing the list this way'.

Isn't BV asking ' I do not understand what Denis is doing this for, or not this for?'

Legitimate questions/concerns for which there might be different answers or more information for than what you are accpeting/seeing.

I think he is doing the right thing. Take Teague as an example. Teague was not getting a game under Denis at Nth so why did Denis recruit him?

Was it because Denis knew Teague would give us a contest for two or so years while kids were developed?

So he gets Teague (for little in draft worth) and for a while the kid does well, earns a quid, wins an award and probably has played 20 or so more games than he might otherwise have played. Meanwhile Setanta/JR/Raso/Hartlett can develop in the ants under Mitchell's guidance. As they develop we give them a game or two, a taste, but not yet the full on experience. So they are being developed. But not rushed, Denis does not appear to be pannicking.

he is simply adhering to his philosophy. he is determined that this club will get it right.

The kids Denis thinks are right/ready, he plays and supports and develops them. A kid like AB - who Denis waited until the kid had strengthened his body and learnt to cope with the new shape. Since then Denis has supported him.

Tex

Carrots

Simmo

and so on. Its a good list of kids. Its not every kid and surely that's the point, it is never, ever, every kid. name a coach that develops every kid?

But there are a lot of them coming through at the club.

And while they are 17 - 21 he will take his time with them - he should.

Listen to Parkin talk about his feelings about developing kids. Parkin hates the whole emphasis on young kids in AFL (one of the reasons for his drafting policy) because he thinks its detrimental to their development - unless they are special (he accepts the exceptions but maintains the norm are not ready, thinks many end up on the scrap heap because they ae played too young - quotes the average games/years/injuries in the system as proof the kids are too young).

I believe Denis is protecting as best he is able our future currency while also trying to keep the club alive and enthused and while also trying to keep the interest of the membership etc. And so he should - to me that was his mandate (for wont of a better word) when the darkness fell. Rebuild this list and train the kids. It is happening, slowly and carefully. Good. I do not want it rushed.

In fact Smorgon's comments (that people are jumping upon) could be seen to try and give Denis more time. Let's not get carried away and demand results yet, lets just try and stretch this time out as much as we can as a club/board/coach so that we will get the full 7 to 10 years we needed.

I would be terrified of two things this year.

1 Denis playing all the kids regardless of their readiness because then I think you would see a waste of talent due to many not being ready.

2 rushing to improve our win/loss ratio at th expense of developing the kids.

Despite everything said so far in other threads I cannot see an example of either and so i am happy (as you can be with a side losing every week) to watch the development of the kids/players.

We are dscussing perceptions here.

Perceptions about the kind of coach Denis is.
Perceptions about the game
about age versus youth (in both the players and he coach)

What I keep coming back to is the only factual evidence I have in amongst all of this.

Denis does of an outstanding record as a coach from under 19's through to seniors, that is fact.

That record has taken a battering at Carlton but there are reasons for that battering and he is not yet finished with his redevelopment.

Whether he is still an oustanding coach or not is a matter of conjecture based on perecptions.

I am still of the opinion he is a great coach and cannot wait until he has developed his kids so that he can set about redressing that horrific record at carlton due to our crap list, our penalties and a system that demands you develop kids from 17/19 to play a game where experts agree you peak around 25/28.

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This type of slight is alien in the more cultured part of the world - Walsh. Its up there with mad dogs, Englishmen and the midday sun!