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I don't mind being criticised for this.
I am going to categorically state that people who want instant results are buying into the new-age mentality of instant gratification. I really want a new car, oh yeah, i can afford it, bingo, new car. I like that book, i'll go and get it now, I can afford it.
Problem is I do it. But I know deep down that sometimes it isn't right. And the same applies to footy results.
As a group of Carlton supporters, we are used to success. Few clubs have matched our record of 7 premierships in the last 35 years. We are therefore conditioned to expecting success and there is nothing wrong with a winning mentality. However, that was in the days of chequebook recruiting and we had some great home grown champions.
Things have changed, we live in a football world that is post-traditionalist. Unfortunately we have to accept that we have to exist in the football world that we live in. In a post-traditionalist world, we can't expect success just because we throw open a cheque book.
We have problems right now, they are multi-faceted and multi-dimensional. For instance:
Coaching - I think Pagan hasn't got the best out of his group of players. Having said that, I think he got the best out of them last year. At the end of last year some gained new contracts and hence may have grown complacent. Some of Pagan's tactics are unimaginative and he doesn't rotate the bench all that often. But at the same time we have players who have flourished under Pagan. Fevola, Walker, Waite, Thornton, Fisher, Carazzo are just a few examples. Bentick, Simpson, Russell, Bryan, Hartlett, Raso, Blackwell may well join them. We don't know that, and to expect kids to make the transition to AFL footy when some of them have had to move interstate (Russell, Hartlett, Blackwell) and move from the country (Walker, Waite) is a bit much. Until the new draftees play seniors we won't know how good Pagan's development is. His support staff need fresh blood, I don't know if Libba's contract will be renewed at the end of the year. I suspect that they might go look for someone else. However, I think that Pagan has failed to enthuse the side this year, except for the Wizard Cup. Some players are getting dejected and this is hurting their teammates. Pagan needs to address this ASAP. Having said that, Pagan doesn't have much to work with as I will address below.
Player leadership - I will pretty much say straight out that we have the worst leadership Carlton has ever had in the modern era. When the senior players show complete lack of resilience to psychological barrages, it shows the rest of the side that if our leaders can't help us, then we're stuffed and this mentality shows. The best way to cop a psychological barrage is to show the opponent that it does nothing and to hit back on the scoreboard with a goal or a big bump. Then you ram it back in their face. We are weak, we have players who refuse to psychologically intimidate but rather are being intimidated. It was heartening to see Walker give Aker a good spray and argey-bargey the other week. We need more of that.
Playing talent - This is a serious problem. We have players on the list who simply will not be good enough. Access to higher draft picks and more of them lessens the chance of us picking up a player who will not make the grade. Until this is fixed, no matter what the coaching staff try to do we will still have a crap list. In order to fix a crap list, you have to take time to draft a good list. There's only a certain number of picks that you can get that are worth getting per year. To cure 6 bad players, you may need 2 drafts. We have about 20 inadequate players, theoretically this could take 6 years. We may have to chop a current favourite or one with talent in order to possibly get 2 with talent. It may hurt now but it will make healing quicker. There are no band-aid solutions. We need some kids, Denis has probably found out who of the retreads will be worth keeping and the list isn't flattering.
There are so many factors and I haven't even covered them all. Because there are so many, we can't fix them all in a period of 3 years, which is what some supporters seem to be expecting Pagan to do. There are some things he can control in the near future but there are some that he can't.
The fall of the Carlton Football Club started in 1997/1998 hitting its lowest ebb in 2002. I think that the climb back will take at least something similar in timeframe if we're going to do it properly. The 2004 draft was the first step, I expect it will be 2008 before we field a decent finals side. But I'm willing to wait, just to hit back at the critics. Are you? Or are you indicative of the culture we live in that wants short-term results at the expense of a long-term structure. Look at Collingwood. They took the 3 year process but failed in 2 grand finals and as such are looking at spending a few years unless they bottom out next year. Brisbane's rise was quicker but they were not hindered by draft penalties as we were hence were able to get back in 3 years.
It's a long ride but it will be worth it. Are you willing to join me and others on the long road back? Or are you going to decide it's too hard and take soft options such as bailing or trying to get short-term solutions when there are none?
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"A good composer does not initiate. He steals."
- Igor Stravinsky
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