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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:18 pm 
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Stephen Silvagni
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Headplant wrote:
Sydney Blue wrote:
Three years - four drafts


So far Pagan has had one full draft. I agree with GWS that in terms of where the playing list was, and the options he had available, Pagan took a reasonable course of action to address what he perceived to be a number of significant issues. It seems to me the perspective is important.


How many of the players remaining on the list have actually improved under Pagan?

Its fine to say he hasn't had use of the draft, but he is also responsible for improving the players that he does have.

Houlihan
Fevola
Simpson
Lappin
Fisher
Teague
Thornton
Bentick
Carazzo
French
Walker

These players have either a) are longer term players added to our best side since Pagan began or b) have improved under Pagan due to change in role.

Is that enough? Should he have been able to do more?

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:20 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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Blue Vain wrote:
Instead of taking David Clarke, why couldnt we have taken picks for Beaumont?


I'd hazard a guess that nobody was offering any?

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:37 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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bluehammer wrote:
Blue Vain wrote:
Instead of taking David Clarke, why couldnt we have taken picks for Beaumont?


I'd hazard a guess that nobody was offering any?


http://carltonfc.com.au/default.asp?pg= ... eid=234183

Yes yes i know it's one of my articles but in here I talk about what happened late in the 2003 National Draft. Basically, no one in it after 60 other than the Saints, Tigers and Carlton. We picked up Bowyer, Mott, Bannister, DeLuca and Kenna. Bannister and DeLuca stilla tth Blues.

I think the Saints had one pick - redrafted Callaghan. Gone now.

Richmond picked up Simon Fletcher (gone), Archibald (gone), Morrison (gone), but also Shane Tuck and Brent Hartigan. These two would make our best 22 no doubt in my mind.

So the issue of trading / retreading, too much trading / retreading or drafting 18 year olds to me is summarised as:

Did we retread too much, and miss out on Hartigan or Tuck? I call it the Hartigan decision. The Blues chose to keep trading instead. In an ideal world we would have picked up both instead of Kenna and Mott say. But at picks 60+ in a shallow draft, it's all guesswork. Jarusa its time for your games played per draft pick chart again...


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:42 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan

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phoenix johnson wrote:
I think what GWS is trying to point out is that if we didn't have the players with the necessary experience on our list at the time, we'd be further behind than we are now.

Trading off Beaumont, Allan, Murphy etc was necessary, but we couldn't replace them all with 18 year old kids.

Also, there would have been no time for proper development for those kids had we drafted them. We would have thrown them in the deep end and they probably would have been burn out by now.


Thats the rhetoric I'm talking about PJ.
Why would they be burnt out?
Why couldnt Simmo have recieved more opportunities instead of Clarke or Bowyer taking a spot.
Do you seriously believe we'd be further behind than we already are? A wooden spoon year with 4 wins?

We had 3 or 4 squatters on our list this year preventing us from gaining extra kids and we will have a couple again this year.

The fact is Pagan thought we could just top up the list and we'd be a contender again.
He totally misread the situation.
We decided to patch up instead of commencing the rebuild.
Collo appeared the only person who really grasped where our list was at.
Mistakes were made and we should accept that mistakes occur and try to learn from them.
You learn nothing when you wallpaper over the cracks.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:48 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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Blue Vain wrote:
The fact is Pagan thought we could just top up the list and we'd be a contender again.
He totally misread the situation.
We decided to patch up instead of commencing the rebuild.
Collo appeared the only person who really grasped where our list was at.
Mistakes were made and we should accept that mistakes occur and try to learn from them.
You learn nothing when you wallpaper over the cracks.


BV that's not a fact. There were afew factors here:

* Salary cap - see DB's post in one of these threads about Kernahan saying we were close to cap in 2005, even with trading way these guys and big contracts and bringing in cheaper retreads happy to play anywhere or face footy oblivion (am including Kenna and ADL here, retreads in that they missed a lot of drafts). This coupled with a shoddy list and what could the Club do? Bring in 10 youngsters without a core of senior players?
* Shallow 2003 National Draft, with not too many late picks coming to fruitiion. We already had a lot of rookies and late draft picks on the list, why add 5 more late selections?

I dont think Pagan thought we'd be a contender at all. I think he was handing out second chance tickets in a lottery, knowing that he'd get early draft picks in 2005 and 2006 because of how long it would take to basically redo the list.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:58 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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if fact yoiu could argue pagan and the club were planning for last year to have two early picks but the retreads performed far better than expected (because their heads were on the block)

we must be careful to say this is fact or denis is doing this, truth is none of us know

we know

we had penalties

the club was buckling under debt

we had a shit list

we had senior players on big contracts

we had a ground we needed to make a decision on

we needed sponsors

we needed to grow our membership

everything else we guess at depending on our Point of View, when it changes, the things we guess at change also.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:08 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan

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molsey wrote:
Did we retread too much, and miss out on Hartigan or Tuck? I call it the Hartigan decision. The Blues chose to keep trading instead.


What about the Sam Fisher decision or the Aaron Davey decision or the Daniel Jackson decision or the Andrew Lovett decision?

There are plenty of quality footballers who get missed in a draft and make it from rookie listings or get drafted after their second year in the TAC.

In 2001 Ben Rutten, Martin Mattner and Nathan Bock were rookied by Adelaide after not getting drafted.
Instead of drafting Bowyer we could have punted on Andrew McQualter who went 1st round in 2004, or Lovett or Davey.

Its about philosophy Molsey. We decided to top up a poor list instead of commencing a rebuild.
I accept that it happened but I get frustrated that we try to justify what in hindsight was a poor decision.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:10 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan

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molsey wrote:
I dont think Pagan thought we'd be a contender at all.


Pagan openly admitted that he thought we'd be playing finals in 2003.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:11 pm 
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John Nicholls

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Quote:
Why would they be burnt out?


They would have been burnt out because of the extra responsibility heaped upon them each week.

It's ok to tell one kid to go out there, play his position and tell him not to worry about stuffing up, but you can't do the same with 5-8 other kids.
If we did that, we would have been on the end of more thrashings and more negative records would have been made.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:13 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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exactly, in hindsight, BV and by us without knowledge of their 'why'. They may still be able to argue a valid why or they may agree with you, we'll never know.

Me I think they did okay because i think this list is better than it was, could have been even better but then oit could have been worse and i think we are forgetting thew two irish boys, Angwin and Norman - seesm to me some of the chances the club took to rebuild meant other chances may have gone begging, but isn't that the way of all things?

if the two irish boys make it, then I'll not be concerned with those missed chances, if they don't make it, then the club probably screwed up big time :lol:

the point I'm stumbling over here is that its a cake, so look at the whole cake.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:14 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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Blue Vain wrote:
phoenix johnson wrote:
I think what GWS is trying to point out is that if we didn't have the players with the necessary experience on our list at the time, we'd be further behind than we are now.

Trading off Beaumont, Allan, Murphy etc was necessary, but we couldn't replace them all with 18 year old kids.

Also, there would have been no time for proper development for those kids had we drafted them. We would have thrown them in the deep end and they probably would have been burn out by now.


Thats the rhetoric I'm talking about PJ.
Why would they be burnt out?
Why couldnt Simmo have recieved more opportunities instead of Clarke or Bowyer taking a spot.
Do you seriously believe we'd be further behind than we already are? A wooden spoon year with 4 wins?

We had 3 or 4 squatters on our list this year preventing us from gaining extra kids and we will have a couple again this year.

The fact is Pagan thought we could just top up the list and we'd be a contender again.
He totally misread the situation.
We decided to patch up instead of commencing the rebuild.
Collo appeared the only person who really grasped where our list was at.
Mistakes were made and we should accept that mistakes occur and try to learn from them.
You learn nothing when you wallpaper over the cracks.


Nice stuff BV

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:19 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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and lets not quote what a coach says to the media as proof, please. lets accept the argy-bargy.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:24 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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dannyboy wrote:
and lets not quote what a coach says to the media as proof, please. lets accept the argy-bargy.


Thats one of my pet hates with DP . Why not speak the truth every now again. this cloke and dagger stuff might be OK when your on the brink of a flag but when your at the bottom it just makes you look stupid. The younger coaches seem to be more approachable and more honest with the press and the fans

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:27 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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Blue Vain wrote:
GWS wrote:
If we'd cleared out guys like Beaumont, Allan, Murphy etc and replaced them all with kids picked from the third round on we'd be in a lot worse position now than we are.


Some very good points GWS but I dont agree with this point.
Why do we assume that we'd be worse off ?

Instead of taking David Clarke, why couldnt we have taken picks for Beaumont?
Instead of giving a pick for Harford and Johnson, why couldnt we have punted on a Sam Fisher or Michael Rischitelli or Daniel Jackson.

Instead of picking Glenn Bowyer who was a long shot at best, why not back our recruiters on a Shane Tuck or Julian Rowe or Brent Hartigan?
Or a Adam Bentick or Aaron Davey?

I dont understand why we trot out the line that we'd be worse off with kids.
How would we be worse?


I think the problem BV is that in an ideal world we would have used those picks for those PARTICULAR kids but if we'd pulled that off it would having given us a hit rate far superior to anything ever achieved in drafting at that end of the order. I'd love to have Rischitelli, Tuck etc but it's very hit and miss at that point of the draft and in reality we may have jagged one of those guys but we were never going to land all of them.

Now sure I'd prefer to have that one at this stage but as pointed out by others we weren't getting offered anything for our offloads and had we gone for all kids our list would have been quite bizarrely unbalanced. Yes Simmo may have got a few extra games but I'm more than happy with the way he's been brought on and his development trajectory. Would he have been smashed if he'd been thrown in earlier? We'll never know. What we do know is that the way it's been done looks like giving us a long term player and for that I'm thankful.

I guess where I'm coming from is that when these things are discussed they seem to be argued (from both sides) as hard and fast rules whereas as with most things there may be more than one possible choice that will lead to a successful long term outcome.

I can't see too many of the decisions made in drafting since Pagan arrived at the club being hanging offences considering the situation we found ourselves in. If you want hanging offences you need only go back a few years prior to that when we were "doing a Laidley" with our early round draft picks.

I don't expect you to agree with the point you raised and at times I probably don't either but we're never going to know now. We may have picked all the right players and we may not but other factors (exodus of experienced players from the club etc) made the decision for us.

As for Beaumont - at the time it seemed that we would have taken a kick in the head to get him out of the club and considering we took Clarke and paid part of Beaumont's salary that's pretty close to the mark. No-one was going to hand us a 3rd or 4th rounder.

Blue Vain wrote:
Mistakes were made and we should accept that mistakes occur and try to learn from them.
You learn nothing when you wallpaper over the cracks.


I don't see too much wallpapering going on at the moment. We've kept our first four picks and brought in one experienced player. We could load up with more and more kids in the latter stages of this draft but then where are we come next year's draft which is considered much stronger by most. There are obviously players on our list who shouldn't be there and my guess is that most of them will go before next year's draft but didn't at this stage due to contractual reasons.

Sydney Blue wrote:
GWS you must be a politician of have political ambitions .

I will rephrase the question.

If Kouta was unavailable to Captain Carlton tommorrow who should be captain. I know you have suggested Stevens if Waite doesn't come through but what about right now.


That's not rephrasing - that's a different question.

The discussion centred on who should be captain of Carlton and was reappointing Kouta the correct decision. Based on a lack of other options at this time I believe it was even though I don't think much of his captaincy.

To answer your new question I'd go with Stevens but I wouldn't be happy about it or anyone else at this stage. So he's not originally a Carlton player? Big deal. Neither was Ron Barassi.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:33 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan

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phoenix johnson wrote:
They would have been burnt out because of the extra responsibility heaped upon them each week.

It's ok to tell one kid to go out there, play his position and tell him not to worry about stuffing up, but you can't do the same with 5-8 other kids.
If we did that, we would have been on the end of more thrashings and more negative records would have been made.


Come off it PJ.
Whilst Bowyer was running around in our seniors Blake Campbell was missing opportunities or Cal Beasy or Wiggo or Simmo or Davies.
We had enough players missing opportunities to fill the breach.
We just added mediocrity to the bunch we already had.

Why not play Simmo instead of Clarke and put a kid in the VFL?
Why not try Mick Stinear instead of Bowyer and put another kid in the VFL?
Opportunities and excuses.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:35 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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Blue Vain wrote:
We decided to top up a poor list instead of commencing a rebuild.


Yes we did.

I have said before, and on other sites that this is new territory for us; the whole situation of being utterly crap. Have we ever known how to take chances? Have we ever known how to start from 0 and build a side from scratch?

We havn't, and it shows.

We all blame Pagan for the recycling strategy, but hasn't that been the Carlton of old anyway? Thats one thing that we have been renowned for so who's to say it was ALL Pagan?

Anyway, I'd take a guess that the team would be just a bit better had we objectively assesed our own situation, as soon as Pagan came across and started to rebuild from day one. We wouldn't have those 10 wins and maybe not the record membership year but the list just may be better off at this point....

I don't think it's a given that young kids get burned from getting belted either....can someone give me an example of this happening?

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:39 pm 
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John Nicholls

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Wouldn't have a clue why those players weren't played ahead of guys like Clarke, Bowyer etc.

Perhaps Pagan was justifying their selection at the draft/trade table?

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:40 pm 
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John Nicholls

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Quote:
I don't think it's a given that young kids get burned from getting belted either....can someone give me an example of this happening?


While he has also suffered injuries as well, Livo's confidence must have taken an absolute belting in his first few years at Carlton.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:45 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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BigBlind wrote:
Blue Vain wrote:
We decided to top up a poor list instead of commencing a rebuild.


Yes we did.

I have said before, and on other sites that this is new territory for us; the whole situation of being utterly crap. Have we ever known how to take chances? Have we ever known how to start from 0 and build a side from scratch?

We havn't, and it shows.

We all blame Pagan for the recycling strategy, but hasn't that been the Carlton of old anyway? Thats one thing that we have been renowned for so who's to say it was ALL Pagan?

Anyway, I'd take a guess that the team would be just a bit better had we objectively assesed our own situation, as soon as Pagan came across and started to rebuild from day one. We wouldn't have those 10 wins and maybe not the record membership year but the list just may be better off at this point....

I don't think it's a given that young kids get burned from getting belted either....can someone give me an example of this happening?


When you have just won a spoon rebuilding is the only option not retreading and topping up

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:46 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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Blue Vain wrote:
molsey wrote:
Did we retread too much, and miss out on Hartigan or Tuck? I call it the Hartigan decision. The Blues chose to keep trading instead.


What about the Sam Fisher decision or the Aaron Davey decision or the Daniel Jackson decision or the Andrew Lovett decision?

There are plenty of quality footballers who get missed in a draft and make it from rookie listings or get drafted after their second year in the TAC.

In 2001 Ben Rutten, Martin Mattner and Nathan Bock were rookied by Adelaide after not getting drafted.
Instead of drafting Bowyer we could have punted on Andrew McQualter who went 1st round in 2004, or Lovett or Davey.

Its about philosophy Molsey. We decided to top up a poor list instead of commencing a rebuild.
I accept that it happened but I get frustrated that we try to justify what in hindsight was a poor decision.


BV... BV.... if you get caught up in what could have been, then you'll always be disappointing. Davey was passed up by every club 5 times in that draft, and we took Carrots just befor ehim didnt we?

You cant just say we should have grabbed him, we should have grabbed him instead. Someone on here posted about how we should have got Buchanan in 2004, after he was delisted for injury, but no one was to know that he would turn it around. There is luck in late selections but we cant second guess past recruiting - we;ll go nuts!

I agree - we went overboard and could have had some good younger players coming through in the 2003 year. But their philosophy was compromised by a range of factors at the time, including salary cap, poor press and the Club appearing to have shaky foundations.


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