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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:49 am 
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Craig Bradley
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Surely we can con Essendon* into a deal re: Carlisle that is along the lines of "We're offering pick 20-something and Liam Jones, or he can walk for nothing in the PSD. Take it or leave it".

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:21 pm 
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formerly King Kenny
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ThePsychologist wrote:
Surely now we realise the list needs to be stripped back and fully rebuilt. If not at best we will float around mid table. Too many players that aren't good enough.

I hope SOS will be given full authority to rebuild the list over the next 3-4 years.

Cripps, Graham, Docherty, Buckley, Jaksch, Holman, Bell, Touhy, Sheehan, Byrne should be the core for the rebuild.

Yarran, Menzel, Henderson, Gibbs, Jamison, Kruezer need to be considered for trade to advance the list.

Jones, Thomas, Tutt, Dick, Rowe, White, Watson, Warnock, Everitt, Curnow, Armfield, Carrazzo, Ellard need to be exited as soon as possible.

The rest are debatable.


Not much will change my mind for the rest of the season, so here goes my changes.

2016 List:

Senior Core (8): Simpson, Kreuzer, Murphy, Gibbs, Thomas, Henderson, Jamison, Tuohy

Next Generation (8): Doherty, Cripps, Graham, Holman, Buckley, Menzel, Jaksch, Byrne

Role Players (7): Everitt, White, Wood, Bell, Armfield, Casboult, Curnow

Unknowns (7): DVR, Giles, Smith, Sheehan, Foster, Boekhurst, Whiley

Rookies (3): Walsh, Gowers, Fields

2016 Senior Lineup:

B: Tuohy, Jamison, Byrne
HB: Doherty, Henderson, Simpson
C: Thomas, Cripps, xxxx
HF: Graham, xxxx, Bell
F: xxxx, Casboult, Menzel

RCK: Kreuzer, Gibbs, Murphy

INT: Buckley, Holman, Jaksch, xxxx

2016 Reserves Lineup:

FB: xxxx, Fields, White
HB: DVR, Giles, Sheehan
C: Boekhurst, Walsh, Gowers
HF: Armfield, Everitt, xxxx
F: Smith, Foster, xxxx

RCK: Wood, Curnow, Whiley

2015 Changes:

Delist: Jones, Tutt, Dick, Johnson, Russell, Watson, Ellard

Retired: Judd, Carrazzo, Walker

Trade: Yarran, Warnock, Rowe

2015 Off-season Strategy: - Need 8 Senior, 3 rookies

PSD: Aish or Carlisle or nothing

Draft: 1 KPP, SOSOS, Special Fried, 4 midfielders (Hopefully 1 being a top 20 pick)

Rookies: 1 American, 1 Ruck prospect, 2 midfielders

Comments:

11 changes to a list in a week draft is drastic, but it's clear that those delisted are not in my future Carlton side. I'm sure the paying out of contracts for Tutt and Jones will be offset by replacing them with kids in our TPP.

We need to keep a core group of senior players in a rebuild. I would rather keep Jamison and Henderson for this purpose as senior bodies to guide the kids in Jaksch/Giles/Foster/SOSOS/Pick 1 or 2. I'm not willing to trade away Jamison as he won't get us any pick near the top end, and Henderson would have to be a top 10 for me to even consider trading him. As for the others, Yarran, Warnock & Rowe will get us a first rounder, and maybe a couple of picks in the 3rd/4th rounds that can be used as points for SOSOS and Special Fried.

We also need to keep some foot soldiers or role players. This group of players I believe we've seen the best they have and it's good enough for depth as kids develop below them. Over the 3yr rebuild I would expect all to be replaced, except maybe Casboult, by the youth we draft in.

Looking at putting two teams together you can quickly gauge where the holes are in our list. We need more of everything, particularly midfielders IMO. Our first pick will get us the KPP we need, I would then be targeting midfielders.

2016 will see a lot of senior players gone, but the young seeds planted this year will start to grow and ripen. I'm of the opinion our game plan will revert more towards a sharper, flowing style similar to when Barker first took over. What we have played the past few weeks is all a strategy for teaching team defence, which apart from last night has been pretty good.

Lastly comment is the pre-season. We need to resolve the root cause of the foot injuries, it's become too common place the past few years. We also need to look at our fitness regime and actually get some serious shape into our fringe players, too many are not fit enough to play midfield e.g. Menzel, Boekhurst.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:27 pm 
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formerly cj69

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Nice synosis KK. :clap:

Agree with most. I don't see Henderson as much chop and would trade him to Geelong for anything under pick 20. Menzel the other one for a similar deal.

I don't think we would get anything for Warnock or Rowe.

Be nice to get an early pick for Yarran. I believe Richmond and WCE could be seriously interested.

Early picks for Henderson, Yarran, Menzel would be a great start to a rebuild along with approx. pick 2 and pick 20.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:03 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Kenny, who is our back up ruck, or is Wood the 2nd nominated rookie in your strategy and Sheehan can't play until mid-season unless there's an LTI?

Also, what is with all the hate on Everitt? Probably our best performing KPP of the season.

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 Post subject: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:14 pm 
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formerly King Kenny
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jimmae wrote:
Kenny, who is our back up ruck, or is Wood the 2nd nominated rookie in your strategy and Sheehan can't play until mid-season unless there's an LTI?

Also, what is with all the hate on Everitt? Probably our best performing KPP of the season.


Wood is on the senior list next year. Between him and Casboult, they could be backup with our rookie developing.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:20 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Seems you still have a free spot on your senior list despite the three elevations unless you make that PSD pick or get a player in a trade.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:47 pm 
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formerly cj69

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King Kenny wrote:
jimmae wrote:
Kenny, who is our back up ruck, or is Wood the 2nd nominated rookie in your strategy and Sheehan can't play until mid-season unless there's an LTI?

Also, what is with all the hate on Everitt? Probably our best performing KPP of the season.


Wood is on the senior list next year. Between him and Casboult, they could be backup with our rookie developing.


Send it to SOS KK.

Everitt is one of the laziest players on our list and that's saying something. Only works one way

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:53 pm 
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Craig Bradley

Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:29 pm
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Nah. pretty sure that's Menz.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:17 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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emtwenty wrote:
Nah. pretty sure that's Menz.


He was very quiet last night.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:43 pm 
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Craig Bradley

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cimm1979 wrote:
emtwenty wrote:
Nah. pretty sure that's Menz.


He was very quiet last night.


He trained too hard this week.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 3:11 pm 
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Robert Walls

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Posts: 3136
Assuming we finish last (ie picks - 1, 19, 37, 55)…

kreuzer FA -> 1st round pick
hendo -> cats for pick 9 (i.e. pick 8 +1 from FA)
Yarran + 38 (3rd pick i.e. 37+1 from FA) -> Crows pick 12 (i.e. 11+1 from FA) + 48
pick 12 (from crows) -> aish + mcstay*
pick 20 (2nd round i.e. 19+1 from FA) -> smith (GCS) + 3rd round (approx 40)

* side deal that we pass on schache

Net from trades/FA
in - 2, 9, 40, 48 aish, mcstay, smith
out - hendo, yarran, kreuzer, 20

Overall draft picks => 1, 2, 9, 40, 48, 56

Draft weitering (1), francis (2), dunkley^ (9), 40 (nyuon), 48 (rice), + 56 (SOSOS), korchek (rookie)

^ assumes dunkley skips f/s, other best available mid

Overall ins
KPP - weitering, mcstay, SOSOS
mids - aish, rice, dunkley
rucks - smith, nyuon
utilities - francis

out - carazzo, ellard, hendo, johnson, judd, kreuzer, simpson, warnock, watson, yarran,


2016 List (46):
Senior Core (9): armfield, bell, casboult, everitt, gibbs, jamison, murphy, thomas, tuohy,

Next Generation (20): aish, boekhurst, buckley, cripps, doherty, DVR, dunkley, foster, francis, graham, holman, jaksch, mcstay, menzel, nyuon, rice, c. smith, z.smith, SOSOS, weitering,

Depth/must perform in 2016 (9): dick, curnow, jones, rowe, tutt, walker, whiley, white, wood,

Rookies (8): byrne, fields, giles, gowers, korchek, russell , sheehan, walsh,

2016 Senior Lineup:
B: tuohy, jamison, buckley,
HB: jaksch, weitering, docherty,
C: aish, murphy, boekhurst,
HF: gibbs, mcstay, thomas,
F: menzel, casboult, everitt,
RCK: z.smith, cripps, curnow,
INT: armfield, bell, holman, francis,

2016 Reserves Lineup:
FB: walker, rowe, dick,
HB: rice, giles, fields,
C: DVR, graham, byrne,
HF: SOSOS, sheehan,
F: c.smith, foster, tutt,
RCK: nyuon, dunkley, whiley,

INT: jones, gowers, walsh, white, wood, korchek, russell


Last edited by 4thchicken on Sat Jul 25, 2015 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 3:27 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Ignoring that Brisbane will never do those deals and Smith as our starting ruck is just awful, where did Hendo get traded to and for what?

Also, with those picks, your plan to net SOSOS and Rice likely costs us a chunk of our 2016 1st round pick if they both get bid on in the 20-30 range.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:00 pm 
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Robert Walls

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:44 am
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jimmae wrote:
Where did Hendo get traded to and for what?

Also, with those picks, your plan to net SOSOS and Rice likely costs us a chunk of our 2016 1st round pick if they both get bid on in the 20-30 range.

1. hendo trade fixed (cats)

2. re: f/s

If rice goes pick 20 i.e. 715 points post discount (i.e.912 less 197) , then we could get him with picks 40 (429) + 48 (306) and get pick 72 in return (20 left over points).

SOSOS is expected to go later -> but working backwards,->194 (pick 56) + 20 (pick 72) -> 214 + discount (197) -> 411 -> so any bid from pick 41 onwards (412 points) could be met readily.

The impact isn't that great - Assuming rice goes pick 20, we'd have to give up gyoun -> then it comes down to whether we use that pick later, in the PSD or if it means giles gets retained on primary list for another year


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:05 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Hahahahahahahahaha, oh shit....

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:06 pm 
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Robert Walls

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also re: brisbane deal.

If they really really want schache and aish is definitely going to go it might be done.

Given that the lions had to take pick 33 for docherty, what do you think they'd be looking at for aish? They'd get pick 25 at best. in that context, schache + pick 12 for mcstay + aish isn't too unreasonable


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:07 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

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We are [REDACTED]


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 Post subject: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:12 pm 
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formerly King Kenny
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jimmae wrote:
Seems you still have a free spot on your senior list despite the three elevations unless you make that PSD pick or get a player in a trade.


Hoping a PSD pick. A bit worried about the draft depth of quality, thus Rowe will stay.

If we got Carlisle, Rowe goes.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 10:47 am 
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Craig Bradley
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and carlisle is a younger upgrade over rowe.

our talent levels are so low and our depth absolutely non-existant, we have to look at each position on the park and try to upgrade it with kids younger. Weitering would upgrade jamison, aish would upgrade carrots etc etc ...

i know the popular train of thought is to only revamp our list through the draft, but statistically that's a long shot and probs not going to cut it.

if we say got 6 draft picks this year ... what's the probability they all work out? less than 10% when you consider injuries, not fitting into our system, never making the next step etc etc ??

Even for three picks to work out, would be mathematically not in our favour considering the draft only bats 22-25 odd kids deep at this stage for this offseason.

I'd say the top 3 picks in this draft are close to certainties, then there's a band of mids which should be good, but possibly minimal impact in their first year. Topping up with quality, former high draft pick kids in the mould of docherty would be optimal.

also de-cluttering our list and if we're not going to pay out the joneses and tutts etc on our list, we have to let them rot in the ressies with no intention of promoting them to seniors.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 11:12 am 
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Stephen Kernahan

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Gee, it is a real concern when Pagan comes out and says that Carlton is in a worse position than when he was here.
HUN today saying that Carlton will only trade Yarran if a really good deal is on offer, mentions that the club would be prepared to lose him next season as a free agent because we will finish bottom 6 anyway and will get a "Frawley" type compensation from the AFL.
Paper also says that the club is privately preparing to losing Henderson to Geelong.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 12:09 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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