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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:30 am 
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Rod Ashman
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Posters are lamenting that we are targeting picks in a so-called weak draft but if we end up with 3-4 in the top 20-25 it gives us the OPPORTUNITY to pick the eyes out of what top-line talent there is, while most of our rivals have to sift through the left overs, if the talent drops away as quickly as the industry suggests.
So maybe we can add, say, 3-4 elite kids while others only get the opportunity to select 1-2 or are left to speculate on others.
Maybe ... hopefully ... :|

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:32 am 
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Stephen Silvagni
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No-one should underestimate what the catastrophic management of the Kernahan/Malthouse regime has done to the mindset of many people at the club.

A new management structure and process could change things quickly.


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 Post subject: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:33 am 
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Bob Chitty
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4thchicken wrote:
Blues87 wrote:
4thchicken wrote:
Blues87 wrote:
emtwenty wrote:
pick 10 for a 28 year old ruck for a team rebuilding?????


Kreuzer is 26, averages 13 disposals, 4 marks and 21 hit outs per game and we're hoping to get pick two for him.

Martin is 28, averages 21 disposals, 6 marks and 31 hit outs per game and you scoff at pick 10.

Don't care whether we're "rebuilding" or not, getting good players on the list is always a good thing.

Targeting under 24 year olds landed us Jones and Tutt. That worked out well.


Not worth it unless we are ready to contend within 1-2 years.

Much better using pick 10 on a young player, going with stopgaps for a year or two and then picking someone up once we see how the rebuild is shaping up/have a very good idea when our 'window' might be


Thanks for responding in a civil manner.

What about pick 20?

The reason I put this on the table is I'm sure the members, players, coaching staff and board have little interest in seeing a substandard side run around for the next few years.

I know I personally want to see us be competitive.


Given the apparent shallow draft depth I'd trade pick 20 for martin - I doubt the lions wouldn't accept it though.

The way I see it, our lack of competitiveness is due to the complete lack of direction within the club over the past 3 years - game plans, list development, team cohesion etc - rucks are the least of our worries.

Direction and competitiveness will come through the following
- having an actual coach signed up that is able to imprint his style from ground zero (barker doesnt count, you need at least one preseason)
- having a reasonably fit midfield -> don't forger that we've effectively judd, thomas, gibbs, graham will all end up missing >50% of the season. For 2016, murphy, gibbs, cripps (fitter), boekhurst (fitter), curnow, graham, bell, fit irish boys X2 as options floating through more often than not will help competitiveness
- having a forward pocket/crumber -> assuming yarran is gone, buckley & armfield would be the only 2 that I'd consider capable of being genuine crumbers - give them a go in that role and pick someone up in the draft.

Whilst I understand your wish for competitiveness, I think its the lack of direction that kills supporters. Most of us can put up with some mediocrity provided there are enough glimpses of the future. It is also possible to be competitive without overspending on stopgap solutions (martin being a stopgap based on age profile)

Going back to the way that I'd approach this offseason...

I'd happily let kreuzer (age profile, compo), henderson (heart/non-competitive), yarran (heart/non-competitive) & menzel (heart/non-competitive) go if it meant we ended up with...
2015 -> 3 X 1st round picks (1, 2 & 10)
2016 -> 3 X 1st round picks (blues, yarran & menzel trades)

2015 -> picks 1 & 2 for weitering francis - both competitive beasts, good marks, elite kicking, physically ready & are good at reading the play. From reports it would appear Schache is a peg below in terms of being an absolute competitor. Pick 10 would be best available with an eye towards competitive + disposal rather than other traits.
2016 -> load up on best available again with an eye towards players that are competitive + have very good disposal.

Also use 2016 to hit FA -> we won't have anyone of note that would cost us compo, so that is the time to bring in a player that can slot straight into the 22.

Imo, our issue over the past few years has been that we rarely look for absolute competitiveness in our early picks - Just look back at some of our early picks for proof -> menzel, yarran were largely picked on talent/x-factor, bootsma on physical attributes/upside, watson on kicking ability/needs, hampson on athletic potential, grigg on athletic potential, lucas on athletic ability - and that is just off the top of my head!

The best players aren't necessarily the most physically gifted or have the best skills - they tend to be the ones that work the hardest, extract every ounce of talent, be gutted when we lose and work harder again.

How many of those players do we have on our list? and perhaps more importantly, why have the majority of the players that we've picked up with those traits come from the rookie list rather than our early draft selections?

/rant over


I totally agree.

Imagine what a Travis Boak or Joel Selwood would do for our list with their leadership, toughness, skill and football nous.

I do think that losing Kreuzer would leave a massive whole in the side though.

We've seen how useless Warnock is, and while I like Cam Wood's endeavor, he is just a stop gap.

The presence or absence of a quality ruckman would affect our whole style of play and therefore affect the development of every player in the team which is why I think we need to bed something down sooner rather than later.

IMO, Ruckmen should be recruited for three reasons (in order of importance):
1) marking - if they can't take contested marks around the ground they are useless
2) physical intimidation - they should affect contests with their size and aggression in shepherding and tackling
3) hit outs - they should be able to at least neutralize the opposition ruckman. Bonus points if they win more than they lose and even more bonus points if they can hit out to advantage 30% of the time.

I'm not bothered about whether they are able to rack up Josh Fraser style possessions.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:39 am 
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Stephen Silvagni
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Ruckmen are more important at suburban/bush league level than AFL level.

AFL level you need skills, decision making and fitness more than anything.


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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:45 am 
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formerly cj69

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Rexy wrote:
A new management structure and process could change things quickly.


Yep and that's what I'm hoping will happen

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 Post subject: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:53 am 
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Serge Silvagni

Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:56 pm
Posts: 934
4thchicken wrote:
Blues87 wrote:
4thchicken wrote:
Blues87 wrote:
emtwenty wrote:
pick 10 for a 28 year old ruck for a team rebuilding?????


Kreuzer is 26, averages 13 disposals, 4 marks and 21 hit outs per game and we're hoping to get pick two for him.

Martin is 28, averages 21 disposals, 6 marks and 31 hit outs per game and you scoff at pick 10.

Don't care whether we're "rebuilding" or not, getting good players on the list is always a good thing.

Targeting under 24 year olds landed us Jones and Tutt. That worked out well.


Not worth it unless we are ready to contend within 1-2 years.

Much better using pick 10 on a young player, going with stopgaps for a year or two and then picking someone up once we see how the rebuild is shaping up/have a very good idea when our 'window' might be


Thanks for responding in a civil manner.

What about pick 20?

The reason I put this on the table is I'm sure the members, players, coaching staff and board have little interest in seeing a substandard side run around for the next few years.

I know I personally want to see us be competitive.


Given the apparent shallow draft depth I'd trade pick 20 for martin - I doubt the lions wouldn't accept it though.

The way I see it, our lack of competitiveness is due to the complete lack of direction within the club over the past 3 years - game plans, list development, team cohesion etc - rucks are the least of our worries.

Direction and competitiveness will come through the following
- having an actual coach signed up that is able to imprint his style from ground zero (barker doesnt count, you need at least one preseason)
- having a reasonably fit midfield -> don't forger that we've effectively judd, thomas, gibbs, graham will all end up missing >50% of the season. For 2016, murphy, gibbs, cripps (fitter), boekhurst (fitter), curnow, graham, bell, fit irish boys X2 as options floating through more often than not will help competitiveness
- having a forward pocket/crumber -> assuming yarran is gone, buckley & armfield would be the only 2 that I'd consider capable of being genuine crumbers - give them a go in that role and pick someone up in the draft.

Whilst I understand your wish for competitiveness, I think its the lack of direction that kills supporters. Most of us can put up with some mediocrity provided there are enough glimpses of the future. It is also possible to be competitive without overspending on stopgap solutions (martin being a stopgap based on age profile)

Going back to the way that I'd approach this offseason...

I'd happily let kreuzer (age profile, compo), henderson (heart/non-competitive), yarran (heart/non-competitive) & menzel (heart/non-competitive) go if it meant we ended up with...
2015 -> 3 X 1st round picks (1, 2 & 10)
2016 -> 3 X 1st round picks (blues, yarran & menzel trades)

2015 -> picks 1 & 2 for weitering francis - both competitive beasts, good marks, elite kicking, physically ready & are good at reading the play. From reports it would appear Schache is a peg below in terms of being an absolute competitor. Pick 10 would be best available with an eye towards competitive + disposal rather than other traits.
2016 -> load up on best available again with an eye towards players that are competitive + have very good disposal.

Also use 2016 to hit FA -> we won't have anyone of note that would cost us compo, so that is the time to bring in a player that can slot straight into the 22.

Imo, our issue over the past few years has been that we rarely look for absolute competitiveness in our early picks - Just look back at some of our early picks for proof -> menzel, yarran were largely picked on talent/x-factor, bootsma on physical attributes/upside, watson on kicking ability/needs, hampson on athletic potential, grigg on athletic potential, lucas on athletic ability - and that is just off the top of my head!

The best players aren't necessarily the most physically gifted or have the best skills - they tend to be the ones that work the hardest, extract every ounce of talent, be gutted when we lose and work harder again.

How many of those players do we have on our list? and perhaps more importantly, why have the majority of the players that we've picked up with those traits come from the rookie list rather than our early draft selections?

/rant over

Agree totally with your last three paragraphs


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 Post subject: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:00 am 
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Serge Silvagni

Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:56 pm
Posts: 934
Whats better a side that has its spine of kpp in very good shape but without a good ruckman. Or a side with a good ruckman , but are a kpp short.?


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:13 am 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 10:17 pm
Posts: 2079
we continually overrate Kreuzer

he won't get us a first rounder

maybe 3 or 4 years ago, not now

no point offloading him as there is not sufficient value

will be a good work horse for us while we rebuild


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 Post subject: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:25 am 
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Bob Chitty
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WOW wrote:
we continually overrate Kreuzer

he won't get us a first rounder

maybe 3 or 4 years ago, not now

no point offloading him as there is not sufficient value

will be a good work horse for us while we rebuild


The idea isn't that we'll trade him for a first round pick but rather let him go as a free agent and take the AFL's compensation for him, which based on what happened when Frawley left Melbourne, would mean we get the pick after our first pick. ie pick 2 if we finish last.

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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:51 am 
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Craig Bradley
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Rexy wrote:
Ruckmen are more important at suburban/bush league level than AFL level.

AFL level you need skills, decision making and fitness more than anything.

Goldstein says Hi !

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 12:07 pm 
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formerly cj69

Joined: Sun May 03, 2009 9:52 am
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Out

Retired: Judd Jamison Carrazzo

Trade: Henderson Yarran Menzel

I would also float Bell, Kruezer & Gibbs at trade time to see what's offered.

Delist: Watson Ellard Warnock Johnson Gowers Russell

I would delist Jones, Tutt & Dick but not sure we can afford it.

Upgrade: Wood Byrne Sheehan

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 Post subject: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 12:26 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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ThePsychologist wrote:
Out

Retired: Judd Jamison Carrazzo

Trade: Henderson Yarran Menzel

I would also float Bell, Kruezer & Gibbs at trade time to see what's offered.

Delist: Watson Ellard Warnock Johnson Gowers Russell

I would delist Jones, Tutt & Dick but not sure we can afford it.

Upgrade: Wood Byrne Sheehan


I agree with this if we can get the right deals.

Menzel's knee concerns me. If we could get a future early pick for him I'd take it. Don't think anyone will float a top 10 pick though.

Tutt and Dick would be on nothing. Probably could afford that.

Don't know enough about Gowers to comment.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 12:27 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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ThePsychologist wrote:
4thchicken wrote:
emtwenty wrote:
emtwenty wrote:
Yep let's trade out pick 10 which should be a 10 year plus good player for a ruck for a few years whilst we're cellar dwellers.

It's also hilarious to compare Tutt in the psd or Dick as a DFA to trading PICK 10


IF you think that was dismissive or belittling then I apologise because that was not my intention and I re-reading it I don't think it was. Is trading pick 10 for Martin not trading away a 10+ year player for a ruck that will only be good whilst we're crap?


Nature of the internet/forums - surprised you couldn't pick it up. I wouldn't normally do this but just as a quick FYI - First sentence was sarcastic, second sentence was unnecessarily dismissive ('hilarious').

You could have gotten the same point across by saying that you disagreed with the trade b/c we'd be giving up a 10 year player for a ruck that would only be around for a few years whilst we were cellar dwellers and then stating that the comparison with tutt/dick pickups cost PSD/DFA rather than pick 10.


Well said.


Gotten the best out of that debate for sure.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 12:29 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Delisting Gowers after one season would be a huge mistake. Kid has done nothing but improve since he came through the door and had plenty of talent to begin with.

Jamison has a contract and seems right for 2016.

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 Post subject: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 12:42 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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I'm going with keep Gowers based on jimmae's assessment.

Jamo looks cooked ATM. We need him next year I suppose though.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 12:56 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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jimmae wrote:
Delisting Gowers after one season would be a huge mistake. Kid has done nothing but improve since he came through the door and had plenty of talent to begin with.

Jamison has a contract and seems right for 2016.

Not sure about improving but he hasn't been terrible either. Better than Luke Reynolds who we let go after one year. We also almost took Gowers in the National Draft.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 1:07 pm 
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Rod Ashman

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Blues87 wrote:
WOW wrote:
we continually overrate Kreuzer

he won't get us a first rounder

maybe 3 or 4 years ago, not now

no point offloading him as there is not sufficient value

will be a good work horse for us while we rebuild


The idea isn't that we'll trade him for a first round pick but rather let him go as a free agent and take the AFL's compensation for him, which based on what happened when Frawley left Melbourne, would mean we get the pick after our first pick. ie pick 2 if we finish last.


I understand that

What makes you think the compensation for Kreuzer will be potentially pick two? No chance unless the AFL is being overly generous

Can't compare him to Frawley

He won't get a similar contract at another club


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 Post subject: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 1:38 pm 
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Bob Chitty
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How much does he need to get paid for us to qualify for the highest category compensation?
I wouldn't expect a club to pay $800,000 per season for him but I imagine there'd be a few clubs interested which could mean $500-600,000.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 1:55 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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zeecfc wrote:
jimmae wrote:
Delisting Gowers after one season would be a huge mistake. Kid has done nothing but improve since he came through the door and had plenty of talent to begin with.

Jamison has a contract and seems right for 2016.

Not sure about improving but he hasn't been terrible either. Better than Luke Reynolds who we let go after one year. We also almost took Gowers in the National Draft.

He was predicted to go in the 3rd/4th round range, so we did fairly well out of rookie pick 6. His interrupted year and a general consensus that he's currently not an out-and-out midfielder saw him slide. Very talented for his projected draft range.

For a raw recruit who would be taking up $35k on TPP you can't do much better.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2015
PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 2:01 pm 
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Craig Bradley

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At Kreuzer's age, 550k per year for 4 years should be enough to activate band 1 compo. I mean, the AFL gave it to Melbourne for Frawley. Call them out on their corruptness. They were prepared to give it to Lions for Leuey.


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