I have been intrigued of late by our recent WLWLWL trend, and the fact it is such a tight season and obviously us Carlton fans are hoping the team can qualify for finals.

And so I have looked at some stats in recent weeks, some of these I have mentioned in other threads.
And here is another one that caught my eye ...

I have always felt that I50s and shots on goal are guides to a team's performance. Obviously things like weather can impact but by and large I think if a team is doing well they tend to get the ball forward a fair bit and tend to have a few shots on goal.

And so I have looked at our shots on goal vs our opposition's shots on goal and corresponding this whether we won or lost the games, and a few things stood out ...

1. Just looking at Win Loss trends, we started the year well with 3 wins in a row but then had a 4 games WLWL stretch. I find this interesting at it means the current WL trend isn't the first time this has happened this year. This stretch is longer but regardless it's not like this WL trend is a new thing in 2022.

2. Between Rounds 7 to 10 we had our best stretch for the year. We won 4 games on the trot and in each of these games we comprehensively won the shots on goal tally, in each game having a min of 27 shots on goal which is a high number when you look at the year more broadly (there have been plenty of games where we have only had around 20 give or take shots on goal).

3. Which leads me to our current prolonged WLWLWL stretch during which we have had the following shots on goal ... 27, 20, 20, 21, 21, 28... Note the first 27 was a Win. So what stands out to me is during this stretch aside form the first Win and the St Kilda loss we have had quite a few games with relatively low shots on goal tallies. But what's interesting, and hopefully a sign of optimism, is in the last game the St Kilda game we had a high shot on goal tally (but lost). And as we know the previous week we had a good victory over Fremantle and interestingly in that game while we had just 21 shots on goal we held Fremantle to just 15.

Hopefully the shots on goal tally in the St Kilda game is reflective of an anomaly in the sense we didn't convert and the underlying insight is we played well just didn't use the ball well and we ought to take confidence from that.

Obviously there are countless metrics to measure a team's performance and shots on goal is just one and probably a fairly basic one at that but nonetheless I found the above interesting.

Interestingly in 2 of our wins this year our opposition actually had more shots on goal. Make of that what you will. Personally I don't read too much in that. The fact is in our 10 wins this year on 8 of those occasions we had more shots on goal.

Shots on goal is a good indicator.

Under Teague we were getting the ball I50, a lot, but not deep, and the ball was often rebounded from the 40-45 metre mark, hence I would suspect the shots at goal were down too.

We are capable of getting the ball in deep I50 and from the eye test, the mid who has turned that on for us this year has been Kennedy with his long penetrating kick. Cripps has done so too. Hewett's kick doesn't seem to be as penetrating as those two.

Would be interesting to see the numbers I50, shots on goal, time in F50 comparing last year with this year.

Good thing is Charlie got plenty of advice on goal kicking from his dad and friends around the fire during the weekend...so hopefully our shots are more accurate than the Saints game.

I love that we compete till the end, and have pinched a few close games early in the season. Its a transition year, and I'm expecting a huge increase in the shots at goal when Pitto adds to the clearances and helps to revive our CC dominance in the last 7 rounds.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

OK so a bit more on this

The St K game our behinds made up 64% of our shots on goal. That is the highest all year for us.
We avg 47% across the year (behinds as a % of total shots on goal).
The second highest was 63% and we lost that game too (against GC).
And our third highest 57% was a loss also (Richmond).

We have been 5th on the ladder for 4 weeks straight.

And we average 5th across the year so far.

Bec of our inferior % we struggle to make much inroads into the top group of teams.

Don't mean to put a dampner on things but

There are lies, damn lies and statistics

Remember the '99 prelim final. Everybody does. The cheats had what, 10 or 11 more scoring shots and a couple out on the full.


Need I say who won. I WAS THERE.

Memories


I bring this up just because '99 was almost as good as a winning GF. Actually it was as good.

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"Get ready, Teddy - you're on": Ron Barassi half time 1970 Grand Final

Bring it up anytime TH..... anytime!

Go Blues

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“Every single element of the Club has to be the best in the league, meticulously and methodically, and only by doing this will we be elite and challenge for number 17.”
Greg Lee

are you including kicks at goal that go OOBOTF or OOB in your Kicks on Goal stat?

last year a few midfielders gave us one of them each per game.


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99 was incredible TH.


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I watched it all from our hotel room in Bali, my wife was angry that I didn’t spend anytime at the beach with her but I think I made the correct choice.

1995 was better than 1999, but yes that game was just special.

Yup….

1995 was our longtime lover…we darnced together…
we held each other tight…we wiped ice cream
off each other’s cheek…!

such a beautiful memory…!

1999 was that girl you met at the Hallam
hotel…you couldn’t wait to get back to yours…
so the bonnet of a car in the backlots just
had to do…!

a great memory…because it shouldn’t have
happened…she had a partner home…but
that didn’t bother you…because her partner
was a prick and would steal from friends…so
he had it coming…!


kindest regards tommi

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that'siti'mnotchangingthistagain......!

What's Greek for Metaphor?

That's the best one ever.

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Congratulations CK95

Poetry.

I called her Gabrielle…!


kindest regards tommi

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that'siti'mnotchangingthistagain......!

See dannyboy that is how it’s done.

In 1982 I remember discussing in the old Western Stand with my brother when it was obvious we were going to win the flag that it was not so special anymore. "Been there, done that" sort of thing.

We had been very lucky having been to the '68, '70, '72, '79 '81, flags.

But '99 was totally unexpected. We all went expecting to lose. Parkin had called the team a "B" side during the week. After a great first half, the cheats came back in the third 1/4 and kicked the first goal in the last and looked to be running away with the game.

Hamill, Whitnall, and KOUTA.


No, it was not a GF but as a game it was speeeeccccial.

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"Get ready, Teddy - you're on": Ron Barassi half time 1970 Grand Final

Browns tackle is remembered but his goal in the last was crucial. Lovely two sided bluff.

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Congratulations CK95

A guy called Kouta had a fair hand in the outcome that day

Outliers do happen

Anyhow, our ladder positions by round (the first number is R1)...

5
6
3
7
6
7
6
4
4
3
5
7
4
5
5
5
5
7
7

The Filth not losing has played a part in our dropping to 7 but so too has our inability to win consecutive games for 2 months now

Where will we end up after R23?