Blue Vain wrote:
We'll get a better idea this week on how much personnel impacts game style.
We're 3rd worst team in the AFL for scoring from turnover and our opponents average 22.4 points more than us per game from turnover.
Last week was a significant difference. We scored 50% more off turnover than our average. It was actually accuracy from stoppage that cost us. Against the 3rd best turnover team in the AFL we scored 58 points from turnover.
That is where we can get the Saints. They are a reasonable side at scoring from stoppage (36 points per game) but we are better. (40 points).
Are we getting our act together at scoring from turnover or was last week an anomaly? If we can replicate last weeks profile, we can take them.
The interesting aspect will be to see how much our forward structure determines game style. Our Defensive 50 to score percentage was 20%. (Double the AFL average, we're usually 7.2, the 2nd worse in the AFL). Our defensive 50 to forward 50 percentage was 26.7%. (it's usually 18.6)
So either we got our turnover game going for whatever reason, or our forward structure worked far better. Once the ball was in our forward 50, Freo were only able to transition to score 5% of the time. (half the AFL average)
Personally, I think it's because the structure was better. More mobile, better pressure on the deck and less predictable to the opposition.
The interesting aspect is how McKay's inclusion changes that. Personally, I'd give him another week off. Let's see if it was the structure that worked in our favour.
He's averaging the second most offensive 1v1's in the AFL so it's not like he's not receiving opportunities, but he isn't in the top 100 in the AFL for scoreboard impact. He's not in the top 50 for goals, not in the top 100 for score assists, not in the top 100 for score involvements, nowhere to be seen for score assists.
So his form won't be missed IMHO.
Our best performance of the year IMHO was when Harry was out. Our turnover game which has been our achilles heel was a best for quite a while. Our ability to prevent the opposition transitioning from our forward line to score was excellent. Was it personnel or was it something else? There's one way to find out. The coaches won't do it but I'd love to see them try.
As I was reading this analysis of our returns I came to similar conclusions:
Turnover game: Why has this improved in last two weeks.
Inaccuracy kills us...last week killed goals from Stoppage
Our improved mobility in the forward line must have come from Harry's absence.
Our pressure in our forward line came from our improved forward line mobility.
Harry will be selected.
Will we go with 2 genuine rucks vs 2 genuine rucks? or...
I wonder if Harry will be our 2nd ruck when Pitto needs a chop out?
I don't like it, but based on our improved mobility, missing Harry for 10 mins per quarter does give us a different look.
Possibly leaving out Reidy and Young makes us more mobile.
Whatever, we have to win this week !!!
Because.
Because keogh likes TDK and SOS.
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