I'd say he shares a small portion of responsibility for the worst list as well. Certainly not the lions share of it, but enough of a responsibility to raise an eyebrow.

Re-tread after re-tread, and all its earnt us is a decent result no where near the finals, and another wooden spoon, and probably another one this year.

It might be 90% the draft penalties, but the 10% has to go to Pagan. He has traded and drafted (with the picks he will have had some hand in - ie the retreads) abyssmally, with only a couple of exceptions.

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The words development and Pagan should never appear in the same sentence

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If you allow the Government to change the Laws in an emergency
They will create an Emergency to change the Laws

I dont mean to misread your point ( ) or reinterpret it but I'd say it's more 60% poor drafting up to 2004 (the decade beforehand), 30% draft penalties and 10% Pagan / administration.

I dont think Pagan would disagree that some of it falls at his feet. He's been Coach long enough to know that it has to come to him. The issue as you point out is how much. Our horrific recruiting from 1995 to 2003 left us without an underbelly of players to scratch just when we needed them.

yes sorry Molsey, you're quite right... that occured to me after i'd posted. by 90% I meant (everything he couldn't control) and forgot to factor in the past regime doing him no favours.

Pick your split of the 90% anyway you like: 50/40 - penalties/parkin era etc etc, and of course the numbers are meaningless, but the point I'm making is a small yet sizable level of responsibility for our poor list lies with Pagan.

Most of Pagan's trades have been as regretably laughable as Parkin's were.... the only thing going in Pagan's favour is the fact that he didn't spend much for them..... but buying magic beans for $10, instead of $100 is still a bad decision

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I would think there's a limit on how many youngsters you can play at one time without them getting smashed. Even the Saints and Cats (supposedly the blueprint for this kind of mediocre approach to rebuilding) supplemented youth with guys from other clubs - Mitchell White, Brett Spinks, Justin Murphy, Callaghan, Hammill, Gehrig, Guerra, Fiora, McGough etc.

You can blood youth but also protect them by fielding a competitve team. We have one of the youngest lists in the comp but still need to get the younger guys to earn their spot in the 1s. I think the balance is ok at the moment.

PS Our list is definitely poor because of the recruiting pre-Pagan. Guys like Sporn, Massie, Vance, Livo and Wiggins should be regular senior players (not even stars) by now (given they were first round selections). don't know how Pagan can be blamed for this gap in our list.

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I guess you and I differ then Dukes on our perception of the more experienced players on the list. For mine, and I've been saying this all along, but having Chambers in the side and not Russell or Blackwell (for example) could in no way constitute having a BETTER side on the park, and therefore DIMINISH our chances of losing.

Obviously, I'm not suggesting we drop Thornton, Fevola and Stevens and pick Bower, O'hAilpin and Blackwell... but its the players 15-22 in the side that are going to be picked based on "ideology" (ie, youth over experience). On a carlton list that is so weak, our experienced players who would be scrapping for spots 15-22 (and, the numbers aren't important.... I'm just referring to the next-players-picked-after-the-good-regulars) are going to be Bannister, McGrath, Livo, Teague, Wiggins etc etc.... these guys are not match winners, and in most cases are not even up to playing at AFL standard. If your player 15-22 isn't up to AFL standard its a bit of a worry, and you're more likely to lose than not.... if thats the case (as I believe it), you're better off playing a good range of kids and building them up to at-least AFL standard.

A loss is a loss no matter who's in the team... but for long-term and his own PR, he'd be better off in the youth camp than the experienced one... and thinking about this selections in the last 5 games, he's erred on the side of experience in most cases (esp. weeks 2 and 3)

I believe he hedges his bets in both camps. I believe he would be much better off in one or the other, and given the quality of the list, the side of experience simply won't get him far either.

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Incidentally, both those teams have improved significantly on the back of developing their kids and not playing many of the players you mention. Its a delicate mix. It depends on the quality of the player you add, and his relative quality vs the potential of the young player he displaces. Obviously Hamill and Gehrig have high quality... higher than the potential of most players. Most of the others played rarely when the young players were in the side (ie, they were back up to the kids) and were eventually displaced from the list by new kids.

Our problem is the quality of Chambers, Bannister, Longmuir et.al is very very low... lower than a tolerable AFL level. we achieve nothing by selecting players who should and will be delisted over players who could potentially NOT be delisted.

I would play someone like Jesse Smith ANYDAY ahead of someone like Chambers. Chambers was extremely lucky not to be delisted, and will almost certainly be cut at the end of this year. There is a chance, if even a slim one, that Smith becomes a good AFL player. WORST CASE SCENARIO Smith becomes a player as adequate as Chambers and gets delisted himself.

I would much rather roll the dice on a 1/6 chance than a 0/6 chance with slightly bigger shoulders.

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I'd be inclined to bring in Kennedy now, and if he plays resonable football, limit Fishers game time until he can prove he has increased his weight and improved his kicking.

At 192cm and 82kg he's just too slight. He needs to be at least 90Kg by now, most 21/22 year olds in the comp are. I know it sounds crazy, but time is running out for him.

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end of message

Not that easy for Denis Pagan.......Smorgan is sat on the fence saying he wants a youth policy but then says he needs wins to help fix the financial woes....playing kids doesnt mean a lot of wins usually and I think Denis is looking at the wins rather than the youth development for self preservation....

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"When you have the attitude of a champion, you see adversity as your
training partner."
- Conor Gillen

Guys like sporn - Livo - wiggins were picked on or about where they were expected to go by most draft watchers - these guys were only 20 when Pagan took over still young enough to develop the talent they obviously had at 18 - but none of them have improved at all.

Same can be said of Bannister - Angwin - Norman -Deluca - Bryan all young with potential but have gone no where

Of the senoir players Stevens - Lappin -French - Kouta Teague have all dropped off or gone backwards

Walker and Betts have been the shining light so far this year and of all the players are showing improvement

but guys like Carrazzo - Simpson- Bentick - Thorton although you cannot question their commitment certainly lack polish.

Fevola - waite and Houlihan are the mystery men of our side at times they can be world beaters but at times you would deny even knowing them.

There is either something wrong or everything is about to turn around all of a sudden

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If you allow the Government to change the Laws in an emergency
They will create an Emergency to change the Laws

spot on, Elwood.... and there-in lies the problem. Maybe the issue is even bigger than Pagan.

(i believe) the culture of this club is in a really dangerous place right now. We seem to be very factionalised at board level, and ambiguous in our need for results. Smorgan has said that we're going with youth, but we need wins to build membership. As Elwood says the 2 are often exclusive. And even if we'd won on friday, that match (from all reports) is hardly going to enthuse someone to buy a membership.

Maybe it comes back to expectation. Maybe expectations set by the board, set by Pagan and set by the fans/sponsors are woefully unaligned.

Forget Elliott.... I'm inclined to believe that we're weakest now than we ever have been. At least under Elliott we had a unified vision/culture (a rotten one though it may have been)... now we have a culture of unassertiveness, hedging, pandering, fear, factionalism and uncertainty... and its leaking out of every seam of the fabric of this club

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Correction on Sporn.... was tipped to go around pick 30 and be taken by Essendon* ..we took him around 11 from memory..we were expected to take Daniel Harris........pity we didnt...

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"When you have the attitude of a champion, you see adversity as your
training partner."
- Conor Gillen

Not that I'm interested in getting involved in this discussion, but SB you need to be less selective in your memories.



FACT: Angwin and Norman where both questionable characters, only given a run 'cos we had our hands tied with draft penalties. If they had such massive potential why aren't they on senior lists now?



French was considered a bit of a gumby when he came over. We gove up a fair bit for him cos we were completely and hopelessly desperate for a ruckman who wasn't Matthew "I'm injured when's my contract re-negotiation" Allan. French, if anything, has exceeded expectations.

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Richard Pratt - A Carlton legend.

There's also the little issue of Kouta hitting 33... our expectations on Kouta should have dropped 3 years ago but he kept on coming.

You could add Lappin to that - stiff not to win the B&F in 2004, abit off at times last year, but also 30. The one thing Lappin always had on opponents was speed of mind, and maybe that bits slowing down now?

Lappin had been great the first couple of weeks. The shoulder injury has slowed him down. We should rest him and get it right.

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"The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent." Qui-Gon Jinn 15-05-2005

"there’s more chance of me becoming the full forward for the [Western Bulldogs] than there is of any change in the Labor Party." Julia Gillard 18-05-2010

Deano people on this site and others continually tout that Denis is a great developer of youth - I fail to see it - If Denis was a developer of youth Angwin and Norman would have been easy- Remember Angwin went top 10 in the draft . Denis failed with these two players - He has had 4 years to develop Sporn - Wiggin and Livo they are no better off then when he came.

His two success stories - ( And these are arguable) are Betts and Walker - Thats a pretty poor record dont you think . We have two guys on the list who were drafted last year ahead of Betts who cant even get a look in in the worst team in our history .

Its not about being selective its about facing the facts - We are bloody terrible we lack confidence - we lack skills - we lack the ability to back our own ability. This lies purely and simplely with the coaching staff.

French had been servicable up until this year where he has been terrible - Maclaren looked good at Brisbane but looks ordinary with us - Is Dempsey the right man????

Nick Stevens used to continually rack up 30 + Possessions at Port he is struggling to reach 20 now and we are playing a high possession game Why???

How many times have we seen our players coming out of defence and have to stop and prop because no one is presenting. Is this because they are lazy- is this because we have flooded that hard and haven't pushed back or is this because we haven't rotated off the bench and are completely buggered ?????

See Deano I'm tired of this excuse that Denis had nothing to work with and the draft penalties really hurt us - Goddard is a dudd and Wells is far behind him and most supporters are rating 2003 drafts as the worst ever.

Also this Whitnal fiasco at the moment is showing us all what he is really like

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If you allow the Government to change the Laws in an emergency
They will create an Emergency to change the Laws

its funny yeah, everything right is not pagan's fault, everything wrong (even players aging) is.

Does he get everything right? No. Does he get more right than wrong? Herein lies the debate. lets try and keep it here rather than all or nothings. Otherwise it becomes pointless.

We are trying to gauge the failure/success of our coach. Circumstances must be taken into account.

The argument is now how much.

Should we be further along? If so, why aren't we?

What are his faults, are they damaging?

What are his strengths, do they outweigh his faults?

This all or nothing shite SB dos nothing but diminish the debate.

When the penalties were handed down most of us thought we'd be several years at the bottom rebuilding a shit list.

So what's happening now?

I for 1 am extremely happy with the list we are assembling - it has holes and these holes must be addressed but we are gathering a large,m talented bunch of kids - will they make it? Not all of them. But enough, if enough do we are well on the way.

We now have 2 top liners in Tex and Murph. Then we have Kennedy - that may make 3. Another this year is 4. Then there are the hopes for the others. players like JR, Bower, Edwards etc. Can some of them become topliners? so for list accumulation i give us a tick.


Development: Pleased with Tex. Understand that he could now go in the midfield, but really we also need a defence and he may be a cornerstone of that defence. It certainly looks like it We have an attacker of possibly the Mcleod ilk but who can be plonked on a Croad when that player is in full flight. That is an amazing weapon for us. Yes i would like to see him given a go forward sometimes, and on the ball other times, but shit he has developed.

Murph? Can't fault - yes yes, he is a great kid, still the club seem to be managing him right if we go by his output.

Simmo - very happy. As I said, I think the next big challenge for Simmo is that other teams are plonking speedsters on him, good. He seems to thrive on a challenge. He's developing.

AB - most here were not expecting a lot. I love his effort. I think that hit he took from Richo proves he is something, a soldeir, a leader perhaps.

JR - everyone begged him to be left in, he was and even I have to admit he now should stay. he looked even better against the Tiges, I don't know but something about him says JR belongs. He seems to be developing nicely.

Hartlett. - Liked what is aw of the kid during the NAB but he is injured again. Problem with the body - no fault of Denis's I would suspect.

Houla - not my fav player but he is better than he was 3 years ago. Far better. More versatile.

Betts - moving between the pocket and midfield - he is small, he is light, he is being developed. Doesn't seem to be being overused. Glad. Can't wait for another couple on preseasons on this kid.

Most of the others kids play with the ants or ants reserves. Mitchell seems to be doing okay there. As fro Denis needing to do more with them. I know Sheedy has little to do with players until he moves them into the firsts. I expect many coaches are the same. Things must be delegated. I am happy with Mitchell even though I was a Ross Lyon fan - liked his way of addressign the kid at the huddles , thats really all i am basing that on.

So I am happy with development remembering that age cannot be accelerated, and fast tracking is a lovely managerial term but in truth, as Maslow explained, things cannot be taught until the unconscious mind is conscious of the need to learn the next step. So a player must first be made aware of what they need to learn, need to grasp that lesson, before the next step can occur.

Match Day. Not happy with kick outs at all. Seems to me we are one of the worst at taking advantage of the kick out or of turnovers. Shits me no end. Denis needs to address this.

Match-ups. Mostly I think he gets it pretty right but not alays and he seems to struggle with our players weaknesses at times (or is he trying to develop them?) ie Lance on Croad...shudder.

Moves in a game. Sometimes I think they come too slowly but tohers do not bug me as much as some. A move is not an isolated event, but like chess, a move is made to balance the whole field - I do like that Denis never seems to be rushed into a move, yet he may be to reactive rather than proactive.

The Flood - well I just hate this full stop.

Leadership has not been adressed. Must be. lay this at Denis's feet. if it means upsetting the older guys upset them.

All i all i am still happy with Denis. We are more competitive this year (so far) no blows outs (so far) the kids are developing. Expected a bottom four finish and still think that's what we'll get. I expect us to be a middle of the road team next year pushing to win a few games in a row and maybe break almost even, say 10 wins/12 losses. Bottom four next year would be a failure on Denis's part.

The year after I expect a big improvement. I hope if Denis is sacked and this improvement comes in 2008 people realize that perhaps Denis was laying solid foundations after all.

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This type of slight is alien in the more cultured part of the world - Walsh. Its up there with mad dogs, Englishmen and the midday sun!

Fevola ring a bell

Good lord.

Take a deep breath for a minute.

I'm not necessarily refuting your opinion - just trying to make sure that you're being historically accurate.

Anyone would think that Denis had the '95 premiership side on his hands and pissed it away for fun

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Richard Pratt - A Carlton legend.

one name is conspicuously absent from your list, dannyboy

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