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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:08 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

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verbs wrote:
Whitnall is in elite form according to Wallsy.
And paid accordingly.


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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:13 pm 
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Stephen Silvagni
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He finished third last year. Had a pretty good year.


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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:15 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

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molsey wrote:
What Whitnall earned in 2005 for his output is irrelevant to whether his sort of player is required by our Club (for whatever reasons) in 2007 (and beyond).

Feeling 'ripped off' is an emotion that this can do without.


What about risk being the emotion? Is that something we can do without?


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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:17 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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dannyboy wrote:
but couldn't you argue, Molsey, that a reason for his improved form is a desire to get back to his bigger pay and when he gets back there will he fall back into old habits he showed last time he was receiving a big pay cheque?



Not sure, there could be lots of drivers to his performance. He's on a known pay packet for 2007 and thereafter wouldn't he be 28 or so so we wouldn't be paying him long-term then? Maybe he's grown up? Maybe CHB is his position? Maybe the difference between $400k and $550k pa isn't much to change your behaviour (I'll get back to you when I'm on either).

Tyrants - proxy metric, eh? :lol: Footballers should be judged on footy output not kick per $, but if you want to see it that way then fine. As I see it the argument is about value now in trade v value to the team in future. Both are hard to quantify now but a low pick sounds enticing. For the Blues money should be secondary over the next few years as we're going to be so short of good senior players that spare cap should be available.

We're damned if we do trade:
* Whitnall is a favourite of many, particularly the 'men on the street'.
* We are so short of good senior players that he'll be very much neede din 2007
* Leadership post Kouta?
* What happens to the Club if we become a rabble of brilliant 19 year olds?

We're damned if we don't trade:
* Miss out on super draft?
* Miss out on super draft?
* Miss out on super draft when everyone knows we're still 4-6 very good to great young players short on being a premiership threat some time in the next 4-6 years.

Synners argument is all about future and it's an enticing argument. Synners argument is also about premierships. I get the feeling the Club is dying to be credible and just wants to compete, rather than is planning a premiership. Given our financial situation, I see the logic.

Would my view be different if our financial situation improves? And would Whitnallr eally make a difference in 2007 notwithstanding an assumed continuation of great form? Well, he's doing brilliantly and we're still struggling so you have to question it?


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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:20 pm 
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John James
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Don't take this personally Synbad, but I think Synbad will be happy when he is traded and kicks 10 goals against us in a final 3-4 years time and we have picked up another Livingston in so called super draft.
Im in Neutral ground for both of these arguements as there is possible advantages and disadvantages for both cases.


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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:22 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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woof wrote:
molsey wrote:
What Whitnall earned in 2005 for his output is irrelevant to whether his sort of player is required by our Club (for whatever reasons) in 2007 (and beyond).

Feeling 'ripped off' is an emotion that this can do without.


What about risk being the emotion? Is that something we can do without?


sorry woof I dont understand the question


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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:23 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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verbs wrote:
He finished third last year. Had a pretty good year.


now, I'm no moderator verbs, but its the kind of inane observations that you're making that are the reason for the new forum. "gee whitnall's good.... I like whitnall"..... thats what that forum's for. To be honest, I don't know why this thread hasn't been moved.... but clearly this debate has evolved from the "gee, he's good" topic, which is available in the #8 - Lance Whitnall thread.

I assume this has stayed in here because of the contention of him being 'elite"..... how do we define "elite" and how is he that.

Personally, I find the bitter support for Whitnall as disturbing as those who are dismayed by calls to trade him. Its almost like you're all in such shock that you're clinging to his form like a kid around his parent's leg. "nah nah nah nah you're wrong. Whitnall is great"....... and he IS NOW.... so.... does that make him an elite footballer? Is that the kind of title you need to earn over time? if so, how long is that long?

I argue that 'elite' is a bit of a stretch. He might be playing elite footy, but he's not an elite footballer at the moment... but thats not to say he can't grow into one... lets just see how the season unfolds.

I wouldn't trade an elite player either... but is he elite? Thats the issue. "tradeable" is another proxy for elite.......

ELITE!!!! ????????

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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:25 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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I'd argue his form is definitely elite but the question to me is is elite a time based measure? Do you need to perform at the top level for x years, or x games?

Is that what you're trying to answer Tyrants?


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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:29 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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Is tradeable a proxy for elite?

Elite players can be traded - they have lots of currency for sure. Would you trade an elite player? Would Andrew Walker get us pick 2 in this years draft?

Everyone is tradeable.

The decision to trade an elite player depends on the plans at the time.


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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:30 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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Molsey molsey molsey.............. 8)

my argument isn't that footballers are measured in $$..... quite the opposite. I'm saying $$ is a "proxy metric" for expectation (of the club, the coaches... and, often, by assumption, of the fans)... so what I'm saying is judging him in the past on performance vs expectation. Now, $$ isn't the sole judge, but its a "proxy metric"... ie, its a good indicator of the expectation of the club.... you only play your top players top dollar, and you do it because you expect high output.

With Whitnall, we have a top earner with not top output (previous to this season)... therefore, we can comfortably DEDUCE that he hasn't performed well vs expectation (at the time he was re-contracted).

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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:32 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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ACHILLES wrote:
Don't take this personally Synbad, but I think Synbad will be happy when he is traded and kicks 10 goals against us in a final 3-4 years time and we have picked up another Livingston in so called super draft.
Im in Neutral ground for both of these arguements as there is possible advantages and disadvantages for both cases.



If youre afraid of the draft and what you might find in it you better pull up stops and finish up now...

Its the only source of players.

I have full faith in the recruiting team and the underage system.

You dont... or someone else doesnt.... thats ok... people are allowed to live their lives in fear of the unknown...

But remember... someone had to have the courage to work out what fire is for and not to be afraid of it.. so that you can eat a steak..!!!

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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:33 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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The Tyrant wrote:

With Whitnall, we have a top earner with not top output (previous to this season)... therefore, we can comfortably DEDUCE that he hasn't performed well vs expectation (at the time he was re-contracted).


Going on reports, and my personal view, is that you're right.

Now how does that impact on 2007?


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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:36 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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blueboy8 wrote:
verbs wrote:
The Tyrant wrote:
woof wrote:
BlueMark wrote:
Lance has been nothing short of sensational this year. As someone said earlier being able to complete a full pre-season and having no injuries makes a huge difference. Lance has also been allowed to settle into a position and make it his own rather than playing'spareparts' man as he has had to over the last couple of years.

Watching Lance at his best is a sheer joy. Have always had faith in him and have had no doubt he would prove his many detractors once given an oppotunity.


He has earn't close to 2 million dollars in the last 4 years. My expectation would be for him to be nothing short of sensational over that whole period. As to not being able to complete a full pre-season as justification for the shortfall in his performance, we can also say that he, on a regular basis, has not presented himself in an appropriate condition to allow himself to complete a pre-season.
It is a pity that there are still question marks over a man who is absolutely flying. Only if we all felt confident we knew how long it will last.


completely agree

I'm not saying Lance isn't playing really well at the moment... but if we lost sight of its context then we're not being analytical.

And its not just about trading him or not trading him... its everything to coaching, positioning, training, whether to make him captain or not etc etc.

Its like the age old: is the player who's awesome for 1 season have a better career than a consistently good contributor?


I think this is exactly the reason why admin want one thread per player. It's strange to come into a Whitnall is playing really well thread and find out it's actually a trade Whitnall thread.


Isn’t it the same thing every time he plays well lets trade him if his playing bad lets trade him.

And guess who starts it of Mr Synbad always. Fair enough you don’t like him but why turn a thread from a praise thread into a trade thread.

You will never be able to accept what a good job Lance has done for the last two years after his injuries. When you see a thread that says lets trade Lance please put your view across but hijacking every thread about Lance is getting boring get over it.


How am i hijacking the Lance threads?Theyre my opinions on Lance...

Maybe i should get into a conversation with you about magic mushrooms???
But i dont know anything about magic mushies... so i cant engage with you...

So ill stick to Lance posts on Lance...

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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:41 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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The Tyrant wrote:
Now, $$ isn't the sole judge



8)

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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:42 pm 
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John James
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Synbad wrote:
ACHILLES wrote:
Don't take this personally Synbad, but I think Synbad will be happy when he is traded and kicks 10 goals against us in a final 3-4 years time and we have picked up another Livingston in so called super draft.
Im in Neutral ground for both of these arguements as there is possible advantages and disadvantages for both cases.



If youre afraid of the draft and what you might find in it you better pull up stops and finish up now...

Its the only source of players.

I have full faith in the recruiting team and the underage system.

You dont... or someone else doesnt.... thats ok... people are allowed to live their lives in fear of the unknown...

But remember... someone had to have the courage to work out what fire is for and not to be afraid of it.. so that you can eat a steak..!!!


I understand what you are saying it's just a matter of a game of Russian Roulette. There is no guarantee which ever way you we go. I spose life is no guarantee either!
As Darryl Somers once said" You will never never know, if you never never go".


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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:43 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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molsey wrote:
I'd argue his form is definitely elite but the question to me is is elite a time based measure? Do you need to perform at the top level for x years, or x games?

Is that what you're trying to answer Tyrants?


well yeah... is playing elite games = elite player? if not, how many games before you are? season? etc etc

that would be one way to take the debate... and thats what has been touched on a bit in patches. Otherwise the thread belongs in TalkingPlayers.

Everyone is tradable, agreed.... the decisions on who are tradable are subjective, just like who is "elite" and who isn't.

I think definitions like "elite" are most important at re-contracting and trade-time, like you said. There are a few ways to measure the "value"
of a player (and "elite" is a value judgement):

1) 1 on 1 vs opponent
2) number of stats (ie, kicks or goals)
3) trade value
4) salary at present club
5) salary offered by other clubs

They're not perfect, but they are measures.

A guy like Judd ranks enormously on all 5. Whitnall is beating his opponents at the moment and getting good stats. He gets paid pretty well by Carlton, but trade value and salary offered is uncertain... now, they are victims of things like age.

Salary, though, is a proxy (as I was saying) for expected output. items 1 and 2 should marry with 4... when they do (or 1 and 2 exceed 4) they're doing well vs expectation.

But, the another key variable is time. Whitnall hasn't done well over recent seasons marrying 1 and 2 with 4, and has suffered a lot in 3 and 5 because of it.... on a performance over time chart, Whitnall wouldn't be hitting 'elite' level.... but IS time an important variable?

If time isn't important, than salary can't be a valid measurement... because the club will offer you based on your average output, not (generally) on the spikes of high output... opposition clubs can offer on the spikes (like Carlton with Kosi last year), but generally not your current club, unless forced into a position of paying above the level to retain you..... but then age/inexperience/potential plays a part in that as well.... you can factor that out of Whitnall because he's not getting any younger.

So, in summary... if time isn't a factor, than either is salary and Whitnall IS elite... and "elite" is temporal.

if Elite is not temporal, and its enduring, then you'd have to say Whitnall could not be considered an elite player at the moment, but potentially could be in future

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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:47 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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:marketing guy:

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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:48 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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If Lance is elite.... Judd is super duper elite....

Or are they both the same elite??...

"elite" the only good thing about using that word is for talking him up come trade time...

Its not even realistic.

I just saw Blue Mark back... good to see you buddy!!!... hope you stick around and those batteries are totally recharged mate!!...

Missed having you around....

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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:48 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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Achilles how else will the bottom club imprve without draft picks? A sudden improvement in all the guys currently treading water???? Aint going to happen! 2005 proves that.

I dont think many doubt that the value of the draft pick gained from Whitnall could be immense. It could be less than that but to have another top 10 or 15 pick may be an amazing benefit to the Club. Drafts since the late 1990's have become a far better source of players - its just that something went skewiff in 2000.

The issue is whether the Club will want to trade away our most tradeable senior player on the back of what we all hope is a great year* to maximise this potential benefit. At this stage I dont think the Club will and Synbad thinks the Club must. That's what its about. If we knew what the Club's Grand Plan was we would probably be able to guess the answer.


* Everyone wins if Whitnall performs. The pro-traders get a better pick, the Club enjoys his services, Whitnall gets a payrise.


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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:51 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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Synbad wrote:
If Lance is elite.... Judd is super duper elite....



No doubt!

How many Brownlows will Judd win? 3? 4?


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