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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 2:35 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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But........

why don't we use Pick 6 as the dangled carrot...........?


kindest regards tommi



















i'dusePick6............!

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 3:05 pm 
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Ken Hands
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JuzzCarlton wrote:
TheGame wrote:
Ruckman don't get too many years at their prime. They take 3 or 4 seasons to develop, have a couple of good years then their bodies give up on them. Allan, Primus, Gardiner, King, Darcy, Keating etc. All were brilliant at their best but would you choose any of them over a decade of brilliance of Nathan Buckley?

I value ruckman highly but not number 1 pick in a 'super draft' highly.

Would you choose Buckley over the 311 games of Nicholls or Simon Madden and flags? :P


You missed the point Juzz. Sure you'd choose Nicholls or Madden over Buckley, but you have to go back that far to find a ruckman who would give you value in terms of a long carrer. We're going back almost 20 years for Madden and 40 years for Big Nick.

Meanwhile the odds of a midfielder giving you 10-12 years of great service is much higher...Buckley, Voss, Harvey, Cousins, Black, Lappin, West, Crawford, Bell, Ricciouto and going back over the years Bradley, Williams, Hocking, Kelly, Campbell, Ratten, Burke, Jarman, Healy, Platten, Long etc etc the list goes on.

Gibbs is guaranteed, why take the risk.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 3:09 pm 
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Wayne Johnston

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The Tyrant wrote:
Its not impossible that L-berg will fall to pick 6. I reckon its either Carlton, Port or Hawthorn for L-berg (and my guess is Port).



Let's hope he falls to pick 17!! Doubt we'd get that lucky sadly.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 3:19 pm 
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Wayne Johnston

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You just don't know with ruckman. The same applie to any sport. It's hard to know what an 18yo will do at 25 and probably even more so with a ruckman in the AFL. But that's the system we're stuck with and why it can be a lottery at times. Remember Cox was taken off the rookie list so there may be a decent ruckman further down the list who'll develop very nicely by their 20's. For that reason I'd take Gibbs. Leunberger may turn our terriific but, of course, hindsight is a wonderful thing. Sadly we have to make a decision next month.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 4:00 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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Teddy wrote:
JuzzCarlton wrote:
TheGame wrote:
Ruckman don't get too many years at their prime. They take 3 or 4 seasons to develop, have a couple of good years then their bodies give up on them. Allan, Primus, Gardiner, King, Darcy, Keating etc. All were brilliant at their best but would you choose any of them over a decade of brilliance of Nathan Buckley?

I value ruckman highly but not number 1 pick in a 'super draft' highly.

Would you choose Buckley over the 311 games of Nicholls or Simon Madden and flags? :P


You missed the point Juzz. Sure you'd choose Nicholls or Madden over Buckley, but you have to go back that far to find a ruckman who would give you value in terms of a long carrer. We're going back almost 20 years for Madden and 40 years for Big Nick.

Meanwhile the odds of a midfielder giving you 10-12 years of great service is much higher...Buckley, Voss, Harvey, Cousins, Black, Lappin, West, Crawford, Bell, Ricciouto and going back over the years Bradley, Williams, Hocking, Kelly, Campbell, Ratten, Burke, Jarman, Healy, Platten, Long etc etc the list goes on.

Gibbs is guaranteed, why take the risk.

No, I didn't.

I wouldn't take a Cox ahead of Buckley but there are no guarantees Gibbs will be that good either.

The injuries that shortened the careers of Primus, Gardiner, etc. isn't guaranteed to happen with Leuenberger just because he plays the same position. There were also concerns with Judd's shoulders shortening his career before the 2001 draft. 8)

Surely the other clubs wouldn't draft Leuenberger and opt for someone else if this was the case?

Or should they listen to the fans to make their choice? :P


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 4:07 pm 
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Ken Hands
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JuzzCarlton wrote:
Teddy wrote:
JuzzCarlton wrote:
TheGame wrote:
Ruckman don't get too many years at their prime. They take 3 or 4 seasons to develop, have a couple of good years then their bodies give up on them. Allan, Primus, Gardiner, King, Darcy, Keating etc. All were brilliant at their best but would you choose any of them over a decade of brilliance of Nathan Buckley?

I value ruckman highly but not number 1 pick in a 'super draft' highly.

Would you choose Buckley over the 311 games of Nicholls or Simon Madden and flags? :P


You missed the point Juzz. Sure you'd choose Nicholls or Madden over Buckley, but you have to go back that far to find a ruckman who would give you value in terms of a long carrer. We're going back almost 20 years for Madden and 40 years for Big Nick.

Meanwhile the odds of a midfielder giving you 10-12 years of great service is much higher...Buckley, Voss, Harvey, Cousins, Black, Lappin, West, Crawford, Bell, Ricciouto and going back over the years Bradley, Williams, Hocking, Kelly, Campbell, Ratten, Burke, Jarman, Healy, Platten, Long etc etc the list goes on.

Gibbs is guaranteed, why take the risk.

No, I didn't.

I wouldn't take a Cox ahead of Buckley but there are no guarantees Gibbs will be that good either.

The injuries that shortened the careers of Primus, Gardiner, etc. isn't guaranteed to happen with Leuenberger just because he plays the same position. There were also concerns with Judd's shoulders shortening his career before the 2001 draft. 8)

Surely the other clubs wouldn't draft Leuenberger and opt for someone else if this was the case?

Or should they listen to the fans to make their choice? :P


It's not about injuries, it's about longevity. Midfielders play elite football longer than ruckman...that's a fact, proven by history. And not just a year or two but 4, 5 or 6 years.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 4:19 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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Nonsense.

Rucks also take longer to develop and bulk up so they're losing a stack of games compared to midfielders who can play straight away. You have to draft the best talent unless you're Footscray, Richmond or Hawthorn who went for players to fill a position with early picks and overlooked Griffen, Franklin and Meesen.

I hope we draft Leuenberger just to see every knowledgeable person whinge about and say what a mistake it was.


Last edited by Kouta on Sat Oct 28, 2006 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 4:21 pm 
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Rod Ashman
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The Tyrant wrote:
Its not impossible that L-berg will fall to pick 6. I reckon its either Carlton, Port or Hawthorn for L-berg (and my guess is Port).

The thing about Carlton is our admin is very very risk averse. They make safe boring decisions. They don't take risks

that might not translate into the recruiting team, but if you can read culture you'd say there wouldn't be much chance of them dropping a bombshell and not picking Gibbs.

Maybe the other clubs are spouting off trying to make it look like less of a bombshell so we are more likely to take the risk!??


FWIW...

Pickering on SEN this morning reckons the picks will fall this way...

Carlton - Gibbs
Essendon* - Hansen
North - Gumbleton
Brisbane - Thorp
Port - Leuenberger, Selwood or Sellar

Port's pick can be looked at in 2 ways, I reckon. Firstly, they are flush for ruckmen, so may not pick Leuenberger, in which case Hawthorn can take him with the next pick. Or, they are flush for ruckmen because they always draft ruckmen (think of who they have, plus the one's they've let go...Ackland, French etc), so they will draft Leuenberger. Interesting.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 5:20 pm 
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Harry Vallence

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Interesting thought no idea of what other people think and possibly not fair as we have had a chance to review a number one draft pick in 2006

But if say Murphy was in the mix instead of GIbbs would you take Murphy or Burger.....

Now a few people have said that Gibbs / Hanson are ahead of Murphy in how they are rated. but if i knew what i have seen last season in Murphy i wonder if it was Murphy instead of Gibbs and we where given choice of Murphy or Burger who woud people take. ???

Knowing what i know now i would take Murphy as i reckon he is all class of great charactor / Leadship written all over him.... andl ast year just added to what we knew about him. Anyway thats just my opinion and if Gibbs is able t provide a similar profile to Murphy i would be stoked.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 5:39 pm 
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Rod Ashman
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Wolfe wrote:
Interesting thought no idea of what other people think and possibly not fair as we have had a chance to review a number one draft pick in 2006

But if say Murphy was in the mix instead of GIbbs would you take Murphy or Burger.....

Now a few people have said that Gibbs / Hanson are ahead of Murphy in how they are rated. but if i knew what i have seen last season in Murphy i wonder if it was Murphy instead of Gibbs and we where given choice of Murphy or Burger who woud people take. ???

Knowing what i know now i would take Murphy as i reckon he is all class of great charactor / Leadship written all over him.... andl ast year just added to what we knew about him. Anyway thats just my opinion and if Gibbs is able t provide a similar profile to Murphy i would be stoked.


I'm no expert on this Wolfe, but from what I have heard, the top 5 or 6 picks this year are all supposed to be rated more highly than what Murphy was rated as last year.

Which is pretty frightening.

And what you say about Murphy's leadership and character is another thing that appeals to me about Gibbs, because he sounds like he is in the same boat in that regard. And let's face it, we are crying out for leadership at the moment.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 5:43 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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Wolfe wrote:
Interesting thought no idea of what other people think and possibly not fair as we have had a chance to review a number one draft pick in 2006

But if say Murphy was in the mix instead of GIbbs would you take Murphy or Burger.....

Now a few people have said that Gibbs / Hanson are ahead of Murphy in how they are rated. but if i knew what i have seen last season in Murphy i wonder if it was Murphy instead of Gibbs and we where given choice of Murphy or Burger who woud people take. ???

Knowing what i know now i would take Murphy as i reckon he is all class of great charactor / Leadship written all over him.... andl ast year just added to what we knew about him. Anyway thats just my opinion and if Gibbs is able t provide a similar profile to Murphy i would be stoked.


and just as Murph surprised us what if Gibbs disappoints us

or Luey surprises

or Hansen

etc etc etc


no one knows and whoever we take I expect will be good over the journey.

My concern with Gibbs is over his speed/agility

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 5:49 pm 
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Robert Walls
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More CHEAP mind games from the Idiot!! Rolling Eyes garthp garthp You've already proven that you are full of shit Felchin!! PISS OFF!! Twisted Evil


Is it advantageous to be full of shit when you're felching?

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 6:11 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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Cazzesman wrote:
The Tyrant wrote:
Its not impossible that L-berg will fall to pick 6. I reckon its either Carlton, Port or Hawthorn for L-berg (and my guess is Port).

The thing about Carlton is our admin is very very risk averse. They make safe boring decisions. They don't take risks

that might not translate into the recruiting team, but if you can read culture you'd say there wouldn't be much chance of them dropping a bombshell and not picking Gibbs.

Maybe the other clubs are spouting off trying to make it look like less of a bombshell so we are more likely to take the risk!??


So reading between your lines, if WH decides to go with Leuy you would be happy as it would mean CFC were A) no longer boring & B) it was now a risk taker. :wink:

I'm glad we have cleared that up. :P

Regards Cazzesman


oh har dee har har!!!! :wink:

My point was more an organisational one.... I'm not advocating being risk takers either... most organisations need a healthy blend of both in various doces.

As an organisation the Blues seem very risk averse (from an outside-looking-in) and have been post-Elliott. I'm curious (not hinting anything.... curious) how much of that culture has flowed into the recruiting team. And, I'm not saying its a BAD thing if thats happened... just curious.

Risk Averse = Gibbs
Risk Taking = Maybe Gibbs, maybe L-berg.. maybe anyone!

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 6:25 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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i have heard that gibbs is a natural leader too. along the same lines as murph. i suppose he has been hyped up a bit, and there will be alot of pressure on him to perform but I have no doubts he will live up to the hype.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 6:49 pm 
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Rod Ashman
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JuzzCarlton wrote:
Nonsense.

Rucks also take longer to develop and bulk up so they're losing a stack of games compared to midfielders who can play straight away. You have to draft the best talent unless you're Footscray, Richmond or Hawthorn who went for players to fill a position with early picks and overlooked Griffen, Franklin and Meesen.

I hope we draft Leuenberger just to see every knowledgeable person whinge about and say what a mistake it was.


Just curious Juzz...aside from Everett, name the last ruckmen to play top level football for more than 5 or 6 years. I can't think of one.

You are right, they take longer to bulk up and therefore don't start playing top level footy until they are 22-24. But I am really struggling to think of a recent ruckman, Everett aside, who played top level footy past 28 or 30.

Think of the other ruckmen who have dominated that position at some point over the last 10 years...Rehn, Allan, King, Gardiner, Primus, White...none of them were able to dominate/play great footy for more than 4, 5 or 6 years.

So, we pick a ruckman with pick 1, and maybe get 6 years of great footy out of him, or we pick Gibbs, or Gumbleton, or Hansen, or Selwood, and maybe get 10-14 years of great footy out of him.

I know which one I'd choose.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 6:59 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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As an organisation the Blues seem very risk averse (from an outside-looking-in) and have been post-Elliott. I'm curious (not hinting anything.... curious) how much of that culture has flowed into the recruiting team. And, I'm not saying its a BAD thing if thats happened... just curious.

Good question.

What is the answer?

If he cautious? Yes & No. He looks long and hard at the whole package of a player. Not just whether the lad can mark and kick but - will he be a good fit at CFC, will he be happy at CFC, will he knuckle down to get the best out of himself, does he have any issues that will stopping him committing 110%, does he have family support, etc, etc, etc.

You, I and the gatepost know of CFC's recent failures in the those areas, so WH knows he must get it right time and again for CFC to get better. Some clubs up the top end can perhaps take a chance with a player who has some ???? but CFC can't.

He is well aware he can't afford to make any mistakes with the position CFC is currently in. Having said that, it is obviously not an exact science. You are dealing with human nature and as a result some lads will simply not have the longterm commitment required, no-matter what they tell you face-to-face. Others get injured, others get unexpectedly homesick and others start to grow up and their interests head elsewhere from time to time.

How does a recruiter project those human traits/issues 2 to 3 years into the future ???? The only way is to ask alot of questions of alot of people and hope you have asked the right ones and gotten truthful answers in response. Believe it or not some tell fibs. WH experience helps him sort the wheat from chaff and he knows who to trust.

I believe WH is his own man. He knows the buck stops with him and he has total faith in his own abilities/methods of finding talent. He works long hours and fly's many miles around Australia to do the job properly.

He likes to keep his own council most of the time and rarely gives his personal thoughts away. I have come to understand that he doesn't voice his opinions on players to any great extend because A) he doesn't want to influence the thoughts of others he works with and B) he doesn't like sneaky-leakers who may spoil his plans. :lol:

Experience has proven to him that it is best to keep them all guessing right until the end (unless it suits his purpose otherwise) to get what he wants. Anecdotally from him it appears several players over the years have been lost to teams who inadvertently made their intentions known before the day.

Having said all that I believe there are no real risks between any of the top 5-7 in 2006.

As I have said previously, Gibbs, Leuy and Lachy all player different positions and each would be wonderful assets to any team for 10 years. Gumby, Thorp and Selwood are right their with them IMHO. It just depends what you want in a player.

It still takes 22 to win a premiership and even Gibbs with a big red 'S' on his jumper couldn't win a premiership without help from 21 team-mates.

Regards Cazzesman

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:04 pm 
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Rod Ashman
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Cazzesman wrote:
It still takes 22 to win a premiership and even Gibbs with a big red 'S' on his jumper couldn't win a premiership without help from 21 team-mates.


NO!!!...I'm devastated!! You've shattered all my delusions!! :lol:

Thanks for the low-down though, muchos appreciated.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:09 pm 
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Rod Ashman
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Cheers, Cazz.

Will be interesting to see what "sneaky leaks" about who we are supposed to be taking as the draft nears.

And that must be you longest post for ... how long??? :-D

Miss you, Mojo31 ... :wink:

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:10 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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Siegfried wrote:
Cazzesman wrote:
It still takes 22 to win a premiership and even Gibbs with a big red 'S' on his jumper couldn't win a premiership without help from 21 team-mates.


NO!!!...I'm devastated!! You've shattered all my delusions!! :lol:

Thanks for the low-down though, muchos appreciated.


:lol: :lol: Yes it was a major cliche' but some CFC supports think that our #1, whomever it may be, will be the messiah and that it is tooooo much weight to carry on young shoulders.

#1 will just be another piece in the puzzle - no more no less. (cliche' #2 :wink: )

Regards Cazzesman

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:10 pm 
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Adrian Gallagher

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One of the most insightful posts ever written on this website or the old TBV Cazzes. Sensational honesty. Good job, keep it up.... :-D


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