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Something dawned on me last night.
That "Collingwood boat" we've been bragging about not being in
(ie, the "crash" from a couple of seasons of over-performance)
well.. yeah.. we're in THAT SAME BOAT... except we got in it a different way.
WE'RE IN THE SAME BLOODY POSITION AS COLLINGWOOD!!!!
Lets look at Collingwood:
- bottomed out in 99
- recruited, ostensibly, youth from the draft, and workhorses like Freeborn, Steinfort, Jarrod Molloy, et.al.
Collingwood, in their brief foray into respectible footy, had a good even team of triers filled to the brim with confidence and spirit, and were lead by a few truly brilliant players. They had a simple no-nonsense game plan, and a few players who were in limbo (Ben Johnson, Shane Wakelin (circa st.kilda days), Presti etc etc) stood up and took steps in the right direction
After 2003, Malthouse realised that his experienced triers were good enough to get there but not to win it for him, and blokes like Molloy, Betheras, Freeborn, Steinfort etc etc were pushed out the door, and Mick turned to the players drafted to support the brilliant players he had.
However, in 2004, a few injuries to key players derailed them... and the spirited professionals on his list weren't there anymore, and their performance in the drafts were poor, and early picks like Cole were only serviceable, and unable to stand up beyond trying to beat their own player. Their simple gameplan was figured out, and they crashed. .. now more injuries, and further reliance on their recent draft picks, who are little more than serviceable, have them in serious trouble. Now, I'm sure Mick would regret cutting all of Rupe/Scotland/Freeborn at the same time..... but ultimately he was right to do it.. as he had to come to terms with their list eventually. but, perhaps, he might have traded a bit differently (ie, Stevens), and more slowly pushed them out.
Now Collingwood have to, pretty much, start from scratch. Many of their top group are getting on a bit, and they've got to look for a whole new wave of player from early picks.
Just like Malthouse is taking heat for performances this year, a few questions need to be asked of our illustrious leader.
Carlton, bottomed out in 2002 and realised a lot of changes needed to be made.
Similar to Collingwood, who had first round picks etc, but wasted them.. we find ourselves now with a team with little young talent to utilise.
Our strategy was to recuit a whole "middle bracket" workhorse division of the list, to do the Rupe/Steinfort/Freeborn kind of roles. We made that decision at the expense of some mid-late draft picks.
We also, unlike Collingwood, recruited a gun midfielder, to add to the superstar factor.... a little similar to Mick's development of Licuria into a top-liner in Malthouses' time.
The result: a bit of success. A significant improvement last year, and a Wizard cup premiership. Certainly not top-4 finishes or grandfinal appearances, but... enough to warm supporter hearts somewhat.
In footy, when you have a spiried coach and a group of players with their heads switched on, you can find some success through effort. Thats what we've found. Blokes like Bannister doing good jobs on top players (Buckley) from time to time, Morrell rising to a job in defence, or kicking a couple up forward.... etc etc..... it drove Collingwood into 2 grannies that, on-paper, they had no right to even sit in the stands for.
But, now, a couple of things have gone wrong. A couple of injuries to key players (ie, KEY DEFENDERS, which, good or not, we have only 2 of!!!), a decline in spirits and performances in our middle tier after a full-on push for pre-season silverware, and the necessity for a couple of youngsters who've not been developed until now (Davies, Simpson etc etc) and we're in trouble.
Our workforce of triers are looking HAT. We'll see a massive chop again this year, and 95% of the players chopped will be his projects from other clubs, while blokes like Davies and Simpson are still in limbo.
Collingwood are giving gametime to players like Ben Davies and David Fanning. They might turn out to be crap (who knows?) but at least Collingwood won't die wondering now on good talent.
Trading for Chambers and Longmuir with our late picks will ultimately only have cost us a couple of punts on youth. Both might be ok, but they'll never touch a premiership cup.
The giddy taste of 10 wins took Pagan's eyes off the truth.
We could, conceivably picked a Jesse D Smith with those picks. And, frankly, he'd probably be in the side if he were on the list.
12 months ago we were wondering why Kevin Sheedy would let McGrath and Bannister go. Well, now we know. He could see their limitations, 18 months before we could.
We're in the same boat. Struggling for young players "standing up", not enough development into young players, who either can't be developed above the level they're at, or aren't getting the right direction.
Our gameplans have been figured out.
Beat Carlton = swallow Fev's space and wait for the mistakes.
Beat Collingwood = force them to play 1 on 1 in the back and invariably overcome them with talent, and swamp their good mids who lack support.
And now, the future is clear for both.
A very low finish to this year, and a massive chop. For us, the chop will come from the imported lot, who just weren't smart decisions. They were meant to be stand-ins for our very raw kids for a couple of years. Well, now they'll be gone, and how raw kids are still bloody raw.
Collingwood are playing their raw kids now. They have more of them than us... so they'll have more to look at. We have a couple, and some on the rookie list who must be praying for injuries. I wonder if the match committee are secretly hoping they can give time to Smith/Becker/Setanta etc? Of course they're not, because they keep picking Bannister and Johnson etc etc.
Bentick was picked 4 weeks too late. Simpson should not be dropped EVER. Davies has to come in and be given a job on someone to learn accountability. Walker needs a gig in the middle.
Scotland should be picked last in the team, if at all. If he's injured or secretly has OP or something to let him off the hook, leave him out indefinitely until he's over it.
Of course, none of this will happen, because our coach seems to have blue-collar fever.
We've paid out on Collingwood for 18 months. We've ridiculed their failure while revelling in our own mediocre successes.
Now, we're eyeballing them in the same rowboat.
And, from what I can see, they'll overtake us because they're turning to their questionable picks and putting time into them. Chris Egan will look himself in the mirror this morning and say "you know what Chris? you belong here, and you'll make a big splash if you keep this up". Jordan Russell will be looking at himself wonder how much better a kick, or how much quicker than 80% the list he needs to be to get a game.
There is bugger all point now picking players who are certain to be delisted.
This isn't about Tanking. This is about correcting poor decisions made last year and the year before. We should be in a position of Davies having 30 games in him now, and having a look at some of the 6 kids we picked in the 2003 draft to see if any of them have it.
We cannot tank when our team is so poor. I call this "justice".
So, lets yuck it up at Collingwood's expence all we want. But I wonder who'll be laughing when Chris Egan is kicking goals against us in his 20th game, while Russell is still learning the run of play in his first, second or third, and a player with flashes of brilliance like Justin Davies is delisted because he's the obvious choice, without ever really being taught the game.
Collingwood's poor management has them in last place. But their tide is now, slowly, on the turn. Ours is still rock bottom.
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