Wel was having a lazy Sunday so thought after doin some research there is a pretty big reason for our situation today ... And the blame really with the previous admin Coaching group ... shit i cant even blame the recruiters except for bad trades over last 4 years they havnt had many options in the draft for 4 years



Blues - well its pretty sad when you look at the stats 3 whole picks in the top 30 in the last 4 years not much anyone can do in that situation and seeing as we believe the best comes in top 30 with the top 5-10 being the cream so to speak
If we go back over 1999 - 2000 you can add Picks 4 / 11 / 15 but 6 top 30 picks in 6 years just shows where the Blues have gone wrong and the last 4 years even worse no thanks to the AFL If we went back on other teams we would see an even worse descrepency and if we looked to players in the top 40 Picks it paints a bleaker picture
Picks in top 40 Picks 2 / 4 / 9 / 11 / 15 / 25 / 39
A total of 7 Picks from the Top 40 in last 6 years of the draft i rest my case no wonder we have no crop of emerging second tier players who should be stepping up now .. or we lack on field leadership from the middle tier players ... we havnt been able to pick up much in this area
Consider that Picks 1-10 can develop into A or B grade / Picks 11 - 30 Can develop into B - C Grade / Picks 31+ prob a rare B Grade - D Grade
Makes sense what Collo says about our list now


Lets do exercise top 30 picks past 4 years

Blues - pretty poor record overall cant blame selectors when they have nothing to select with
* Picks 2 / 9 / 25

Brisbane - Have won 3 premierships and have had much more picks than we have
* 3 / 18 / 18 / 19 / 23 / 27 / 30

Collingwood - Played in 2 GF's in past 4 years
* 10 / 11 / 17 / 21 / 23 / 27 / 29

Adelaide - Hmm prob have done a few trades but not a great result from them they do have some good 2nd tuer players though
* 8 / 12 / 14/ 24 / 28

Hawks - Well have been on the skids but have also traded to get more draft picks as well
* 1 / 2 / 5 / 7 / 8 / 16 / 20 / 21 / 25 / 26

Tigers - As we know have cashed in last year
* 1 / 4 / 12 / 12 /16 / 20 / 21

Port - Recently won a premiership and been top of the ladder foir 3 years as well
* 6 / 11 / 15 / 15 / 16 / 19 / 30

Saints - if i went back 6 Years this would look even more out of place
* 1 / 2 / 5 / 8 / 13 / 17 / 21 / 22

Bombers - Never Bottomed out been in Finals most years not a bad list of options considering
* 6 / 10 / 11 / 13 / 14 / 18 / 27 / 28 / 28 / 30

Bulldogs - Another celler dweller in recent years having great choices
* 1 / 3 / 4 / 4 / 6 / 10 / 17 / 20 / 22

West Coast - A very good team have been in finals will be premiership contenders this year
* 3 / 6 / 11 / 20 / 22 / 24 / 26 / 29

Sydney - Been in the middle of the pack for last 4 years some finals Prob not that far away from the blues in poor selctions prob had better trades
* 5 / 16 / 28 / 29 / 29

Demons - Have benefited from there one year up next year down trend
Not bad for a side thats been in a GF in last 4 years and played Finals
* 3 / 5 / 9 /13 / 14 / 15 / 15 /25 / 26 / 26

Freo - Prob would have been more up there in the 1999 and 2000 Year Drafts in 1999 they got picks 2 / 4 / 5
* 4 / 12 / 13 / 19 / 27

Kangas - Been middle of the ground really good mix overall
* 2 / 7 / 9 / 9 / 14 / 18 / 24 / 25 / 30

Geelong - Have also been building up over the Last 4 years so have had a good mix of Draft picks
* 7 / 7 / 8 / 17 / 22 / 23 / 23 / 24

I will also add the players we have drafted in the top 40 Picks for the last 6 years
Why do this people have been blaming the coach / the selectors / the Players when the only people we can blame id the previous admin. The selectors have had pretty lean pickings in the Top 40 for past 6 years which if we had more we may have seen some more second tier players emerge. I rather look to the Admin that allowed this to happen IE Draft Penalties from Salary Breaches / Poor Trading off of some possible low picks but i think this has a lot to do with the way the Blues are today..

This research at least makes me understand better and how desperately we need this next draft. I hope we are the only team with 5 1/2 wins or less so we get Picks 1 and 2 and we use them maybe try and get another in the top 20 or if we use our pick 19 on a F/S cconvert it into a Trade and a higher pick or 2 so that we dont use a low draft pick on a F/S

Our Draft oppertunities in the last 6 years has been nothing short of Disgraceful not only from being penalised in the Draft but even in 1999 our first pick was 60 / 2001 first pick was 39 .... Pagan wasnt there and we had no draft penalties in these 2 years.. and more importantly Pagan wasnt in the club in those years


Year 1999 - First Pick 60 no point discussing

Year 2000 - Cant Blame selectors maybe for this year
Livo Pick 4 - Should have been more C grader at best has shown some improvements and has had also been injury plagued potential to be good backman but wouldnt think he has lived up to a top 5 draft pick

Trent Sporn Pick 11 - Should be a regular 2nd tier player but has been inconsistent and be lucky if at present rated a C grade

Wiggo Pick 15 - Similar to Sporn tries hard but his ability lets him down C grade at best but i think many people here believe he is a d - z grader on ability not up to scratch for top 15 Pick

Year 2001 - Again lean pickings first pick at 39
Davies Pick 39 - Flirts with some form inconsistent prob a D grader up until this time could be a C grader

Year 2002 - First Pick 45 again not much to Discuss Draft Penalties stuffed us

Year 2003 - Draft Penalty year
Andrew Walker Pick 2 - Slow start but he is young will develope and shows he should make it i think he is C grade at moment potential to be B Grade maybe A grade if we are lucky Key Points has Pace / energy / height / Hopefully a gun Mid Fielder in the future

Year 2004 - Middle low position finish wrong end of Ladder for Finals
Russell Pick 9 - Unknown hopefully will be a good prospect cant form opinion as yet hopefully a good Midfielder

Hartlett Pick 25 - Unknown hopefully will develope into a good KP player
Again unable to form an opinion due to injury
[/u]

Great Post Wolfman. Wish I understood the asterixes everywhere though.

_________________
2002:> "In their Masters Chambers
They Gathered for their Feast
They Stabbed us with their Steely Knives
But They Just Can't Kill The Beast!" <2016

THE BLUEBAGGER BEAST IS BAACKK!!

Thanks Brissie amazing the data uncovered when you look into it and yer maybe i will edit out the asterixes lol

just to let you know wolfe I liked this too - and have already started quoting it!

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This type of slight is alien in the more cultured part of the world - Walsh. Its up there with mad dogs, Englishmen and the midday sun!

Well i think it helps top understand our current plight and why the Blues list has been exposed so badly and in the situation it is very hard to Criticise Pagan for the curent problems when the list really needs a strong injection of talent. If we came last this year maybe it would balance up the ledger on the past 6 years of draft oppertunities. Look at Richmond previous to last year there Draft history of getting low picks and also in not trading them away was equally poor but last year they definately balanced up the ledger getting 4-5 picks in the top 20. And we saw imidiate results

I work on a theory of how the draft choices give you the oppertunity to get you your A - D Grade players only an idea

If we say and this is an example only i dont know the real mix someone may know better

Top 1-5 Picks gives you 50% A - Grade 20% B 20% C 10% D

Picks 6-10 Gives you say 20% A - Grade 40% B 20% C 20% D

Picks 11-20 Gives you 10% A - Grade 30% B 30% C 30% D

Picks 21-30 Gives you 5% A - Grade 25% B 30% C 40% D

Picks 31+ Gives you 3% A - Grade 20% B 30% C 47% D

And Rookies - 1% A - Grade 9% B - Grade 30% C 60% D

We get a good idea of what our Draft selection opertunities have been

The fact that we have gotten T-Bird off the rookie list / Waite at Pick 45 / Carrazo off Rookie list we really are working at the low end of the percentages

And people can complain about Dennis trying to trade but the reality is that he has been trading players in the caliber of C - D to get similar just a different mix to maybe advance one through. To get a good trade generally unless you are really smart is to give away low picks or a quality player to get quality .... we havnt been able to trade either picks as we havnt had them or Quality A - B grade players as we havnt got them. Also i am not saying a D Grade player wont improve ie late bloomer or that a A or B Grader wont fall but all i highlight is that you increase your chances to get the better Talent at the Low end of the Draft.

If you keep playing in the 40+ Zone of the Draft you really lower chances at potential Quality Picks and of course your list will reflect that Ala the Blues.

So i dont want us to bottom out but i reckon we have no choice get some quality and a rest the balance of the last 6 years.

If we had not been penalised back in 2002 / 2003 we wouldnt be in this situation we prob would be potentially playing finals but not having access to the best talent has put enormous pressure on players which are at best C - D grade. And we wonder why we have so many Skill errors ect. Mix in some Talent to our current list and the best of what we have maybe some will lift and we will see improvement not only with the better talent but some of our less talented players who we keep may lift as well.

Remember Wolfey that Waite at pick 45 was a father / son and so #45 doesn't actually reflect how he might have been selected.

I think your post is spot on, I don't want to distract from it but if you look at our WCE v Carlton article we did recently....

http://carltonfc.com.au/default.asp?pg= ... eid=207597

you'll see exactly yourp oints in reference to our list versus the best team so far in 2005 - the Weagles. Basically, we'ver been reliant on Rookies and late picks for too long. You could look at it the other way, that we've actually done well with these late picks - Fisher, Thornton (R) etc., but heck, we need some top-flight skills. Soon.

Yep i thought Waite was a F/S so not a fair one to reflect on the list

But maybe as a final point lets analyse the current Blues list in where they where drafted it will help people realise that we are expecting more from a list which is poor when it comes to draft selection and the below list is the ORIGINAL Draft selection not what we got them on our list for

Zone Picks Pre Draft time.
Kouta

Father/ Son
Whitnall / Waite / Blackwell
Clarke (2nd Round selection by Geelong F/S)

Top 5 Picks
Livo Pick 4 Walker Pick 2

Picks 5- 10
Russell Pick 9

Picks 11 - 20
Campo Pick 15 / Sporn Pick 11 / Wiggins Pick 15 / Chambers Pick 13

Picks 21- 30
T-Lo Pick 22 / Stevo Pick 25 / Hartlett Pick 25 / Jonston Pick 25

Picks 31 - 40
Fev pick 38 / Davies Pick 39 / Lappin Pick 40

Picks 41 -50
Simo Pick 45 / Scotland Pick 44 / Bannister Pick 47

Picks 51 - 60
Preda Pick 58

Picks 61 - 70
None

Picks 71+
Fisher Pick 72 / Houla Pick 73 / Norman Pick 79 / Raso Pick 79 / Deluca Pick 72 / C Bryan Pick 73

Rookie Elevations
Teague / Morrell / McGrath / T - Bird / French / Carrazzo / Bowyer / Bentick

PSD Selection
Betts

Summary of the Blues list as of 2005
Picks 1-5 = 2
Picks 6-10 = 1
Picks 11-20 = 4
Picks 21-30 = 4
Picks 31-40 = 3
Picks 41-50 = 3
Picks 51-70 = 1
Picks 71+ = 7
Rookie Elevations = 8
PSD New player = 1
F/s = 4
Zone = 1

Maybe this will tell people why we are struggling and trying to get the best out of a very weak list on draft history.
We expect more out of Houla but he is Pick 73
Teague was a rookie elevation
Scotland was Pick 44

So maybe if people looked at our list properly they may explain how we are placed today not trying to upset people we really are working hard with the list we have. No other list in the AFL would be so inbalanced as ours that 60% of our list is from picks 40 - 80 or off the rookie elevation.

If people want to vent some anger blame the past IE the 1990 - 2000 period or the Admin that gave us the Salary cap breaches but i really think Pagan getting 10 wins last year was amzing considering the list at his disposal.

first pick at pick 60 in 1999, that is bloody ridiculous!!! This is exactly why we are crap now!

Tell me about it i reckon we have only ourselves to blame for the current predicament it really is a shambles and considering our current list we got Pagan is trying to get Blood out of a stone we need talent now and a chance to nab somone elses talent in the PSD and re balance our side a bit. i Reckon Pagan with a more balanced team will do some miracles .. similar to the roos where i think he only missed one finals appearance in 10 years but even this list would make him hoodini to get us into a final lol
The Roos list wasnt the most talented but compared to the blues list 2005 it is star studded lol in comparison

No you cant blame Denis for ten or more years of bumbling recruiting where we were a laughing stock...try Parkin/Osullivan/Kinnear......the blame is in there somewhere....a one legged player called Mick McGuane being a example of how stupid we must have looked to the rest of the football world.....

_________________
"When you have the attitude of a champion, you see adversity as your
training partner."
- Conor Gillen

Great posting fella's, i like to look at stats like this. I'm very aware as is most of you here that we need to finish bottom of the ladder with a priority picks in hand. I just want this season over and done with to be honest and grit the teeth.

We need highest possible draft selections and it will happen this year. Can't afford to win more than 5 and a half games. This could be the last year for priority picks. Now or never.

Although I've said all of this, i still watch and hope each week that we win, and get upset when we don't.. deep down I want to win, but on the other hand I want to finish bottom to get these early picks.

Excellent analysis Wolfe!

it comes out worse if you compare with any other list in the league

Pick any team and you will see the driffernces of the make up of the blues VS any other team

Summary of the Blues list as of 2005
Picks 1-5 = 2
Picks 6-10 = 1
Picks 11-20 = 4
Picks 21-30 = 4
Picks 31-40 = 3
Picks 41-50 = 3
Picks 51-70 = 1
Picks 71+ = 7
Rookie Elevations = 8
PSD New player = 1
F/s = 4
Zone = 1

Saints List 2005
Picks 1-5 = 6 ( 2x Pick1 / 2x Pick 2 / 1x Pick3 / 1x Pick 5)
Picks 6-10 = 1
Picks 11-20 = 8
Picks 21-30 = 6
Picks 31-40 = 2
Picks 41-50 = 4
Picks 51-70 = 5
Picks 71+ = 2 (Includes Hamil we found at Pick 79)
Rookie Elevations = 2
F/s = ?
Zone = 2

And the sad thing we pay our list as much as the saints pay theres

You could do any other list and have similar comparissons

I was just looking at our draft tips from a "win/loss" perspective. i.e. rating the player on whether they have performed above or below the level expected of the position of draft.

Of course some of the players started somewhere else but let's see what happens.

Father/ Son
Whitnall / Waite / Blackwell
Clarke (2nd Round selection by Geelong F/S)

I think you would say the Whitnall and Waite would be wins here and that Clarke would be a loss. Too early to say with Blackwell.

Top 5 Picks
Livo Pick 4 Walker Pick 2

Livo is definitely a loss. Maybe he becomes a Micky Martyn / Alistair Nicholson type negating full-back but nowhere near the value you would expect from a top 5 draft pick. Maybe too early to tell with Walker but he does have some exceptional abilities so you'd be leaning towards a win. I'll give this one a draw. About what I would expect at this stage for a number 2 pick.

Picks 5- 10
Russell Pick 9

Too early to tell.

Picks 11 - 20
Campo Pick 15 / Sporn Pick 11 / Wiggins Pick 15 / Chambers Pick 13

Campo has been a definite win. Sporn and Wiggins are big losses and you would think that Chambers as well but not really our loss.

Picks 21- 30
T-Lo Pick 22 / Stevo Pick 25 / Hartlett Pick 25 / Jonston Pick 25

Stevo a win but not our win.
Harlett too early to tell, T-Lo
Johnston not our losses but losses none the less.

Picks 31 - 40
Fev pick 38 / Davies Pick 39 / Lappin Pick 40

Fev would be a win
Davies a draw at the moment
Lappin a big win but not our win.

Picks 41 -50
Simo Pick 45 / Scotland Pick 44 / Bannister Pick 47

Interesting trio this. Is Simmo a win or a loss? Still looks lost and too small. I'll toss a coin and go with Loss.
Scotland was a definite win last year but on this years form a loss. I'll split the difference and go with a draw.
Similar story for Bannister. Mark it a draw.

Picks 51 - 60
Preda Pick 58

What is to become of Prenda? Honest as the day is long but lacking game busting skill. Considering he's a very low pick I'll give this one a draw.

Picks 61 - 70
None

Picks 71+
Fisher Pick 72 / Houla Pick 73 / Norman Pick 79 / Raso Pick 79 / Deluca Pick 72 / C Bryan Pick 73

Now this section is interesting.

I'll give Fisher a win, Houla a win,
Norman looks like he's on the way out so I'll give that one a loss .
I think De Luca is going through the second year blues. Let's give that one a draw
"Too Early" from Bryan and Raso.

In summary:

Carlton Wins : 6
Carlton Draws : 4
Carlton Losses : 5

It's the inability of any of Livo, Prenda, Sporn, Wiggins or Davies to bloom into something special that's really cruelling us.

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or going to bed with Miss World, it would have been a difficult choice. Luckily, I had both. - George Best

grand poteau, vous avez fait quelques points vraiment positifs

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