Enough has been said about our plight. Enough has been offered up as reasons why we are at a low point in the supposed premiership clock. We are in an unavoidable section of the cycle that the visionaries of the VFL/AFL thought up to take away the advantage of the successful clubs. It must have been exhilarating for them to dream up the draft, the salary cap, total player payments, ground rationalization, competitive balance fund, priority picks, blockbuster status and all the other equalization goodies that have gone to the poor downtrodden bludgers of the league. If this didn’t do enough damage to the former powers, then special zones for interstate clubs followed by player retention allowances, certainly has. POX!!
One only has to look at where
Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon*, Hawthorn and in a couple of weeks, Richmond are on the ladder. Since 1977 these clubs have had 32 Grand Final appearances between them. They have won 17 between them.
So far the system has favoured the interstate conglomerates with the Eagles winning twice and a couple more in the pipeline, the Crows likewise, the Lions 3 of them on end and more soon and poor old Port finally cobbled together a win in last years decider.
Interestingly, interstate clubs have appeared 11 times and won 8 times. Keep in mind this was also achieved in a 14 year timeframe from 1991 to 2004 as well. That’s right, in 14 years (28 possible combatants); interstaters have appeared 11 times and won 8.
The worst nightmare of traditionalists was 2004 where the Grand Final was contested by the Yogi Bears who were a manufactured club forced into a merger with the basket case Fitzroy and a prop-up from the inferior SANFL.
Only the Swans and Freo have yet to drink from the silverware. Who knows how long that will last as the AFL is determined that their poxy system will take effect. They will probably get some concession or handout soon to leg em up.
I have left out all the other Victorian clubs for the same reasoning as including the Kangaroos. Geelong is great to bet against. 8 top four appearances with 4 GF’s but no cigar.. Handbag City! Melbourne 8 top four appearances with 2 GF’s but no stogie! St. Kilda, well the wooden spoon kings, 26 isn’t they? 3 top four appearances with 1 GF but not even a rollie!! All of these since the system started kicking in. The Bulldogs have been thereabouts a few times but no biggies since the war. 4 top four appearances with 0 GF, not even a sniff out West.
After compiling the attached chart (appreciation to the Propeller Head of all Footy stats, Jarusa for his assistance), some interesting points hit me in the melon. Some we are all aware of, but some defy logic. Chart here:
http://www.footygeek.com/images/cycles.gif
To visit Jarusas site click here:
www.footygeek.com
FILTH: Collingwood are perennial bridesmaids. Once they realize that they aren’t good enough to win the big one, they clear the decks and rebuild only to hit the heights again and subsequently repeat the same cycle. 1 Flag in what 58 years…Groundhog Day!!
MONGRELS: Richmond up and down like granny’s pants. Every time they have a good season, they crash the following year. They certainly have suffered from Grand Final hangovers and I ain’t talking about Premiership hangovers either. 1980 was 25 years ago!
SCUM: Essendon* appear to work in 7/8 year Cycles. They have appeared in a GF every 7/8 years or so. If it wasn’t for their 84 and 85 Flags, they have had a poor return since 1977 as well. Whilst they have been thereabouts in recent years, they usually drop off and consistently finish out of the action before rising up to challenge again. Wasn’t 99 just the sweetest? Almost as good as a flag.
DAWKS: Hawthorn has certainly been the pick of the opposition mentioned so far. They have won 6 Flags from 9 appearances, although they haven’t got the chocolates since 1991. In fact they have been pretty poor considering they have only made the top 4 once since and have spent the last 14 years or so fighting for the lower rungs of the 8. A real Zig Zag ride at Glenfairy!
KANGAROOS: Whilst not considered a traditional club in the sense that the aforementioned and ourselves are (crowds, members, national supporters, sponsors etc.), I couldn’t leave them out of the analysis, because they have been so successful in this time. Whilst only winning 3 flags from 4 appearances, they have also finished in the top four, 13 times. The two previous years they were in it as well winning one and being runners up in the other. The amazing thing about them has been since
Pago Pago became Senior Coach at Arden Street. His record speaks for itself. Wasn’t it 7 consecutive Preliminary Finals? He got them to the biggie on 3 occasions for 2 flags. Their build from 12th in 1992 to a flag in 1996 was pretty good as was their maintaining the momentum to stay thereabouts and get the goodies in 1999.
CARLTON: Who could dispute the glorious success that the mighty
Bluebaggers have enjoyed? Since 1977, we have been top 4 on 13 occasions. We have contested 8 Grand Finals and won 5 in that time. Similar to the Kangas, I could go back further and the record is even more impressive, however I need to switch to more recent times. Our last top 4 appearance was in 2000 and last GF was in 1999. Our last Flag was in 1995 with no top 4 appearances between. Very lean years for our proud club. Almost as bad as the pre-Barrassi years.
As stated earlier, we are now subject to this horrible system that the boffins invented to peg us and the other powers back to the field. It certainly hasn’t helped the ordinary Victorian clubs..yet! It would take a brave person to bet against Melbourne, Geelong, St. Kilda and even the Scraggers from glory on that one day in September within the next decade.
I suggest that enough has been said, however Demitrispews grand plan for Footy Socialism has been openly discussed this past few weeks again. From Presidents, players, officials and now coaches…enough is a friggin nuff. We just gotta move on and accept that we are stuck with the conditions and have to work towards turning them to our advantage. There has been plenty on that subject too, tanks very much.
So what is the point of this thread?
It is to emphasize the cyclic nature of the seasons and to show that even if all appears doom and gloom, history tells us that things can turn around very quickly. Examples of this have been: Richmond: 8th in 79 to Premiers in 80, Essendon*: 14th in 97 to Premiers in 2000 (Should have been in 1999, but you know why...lol), Pies: 12th in 87 to Premiers in 90 and Wooden Spoon in 99 to runners up in 02 & 03, Weagles: 11th in 89 to Premiers in 92 and recently 14th in 01 to top of ladder in 05, Crows: 12th in 96 to Premiers in 97 and 98, Lions: Wooden Spoon in 98 to triple Premiers in 01, 02 & 03, Kangaroos: 12th in 92 to Premiers in 96, stayed thereabouts and got the chockies again in 99 and finally,
Carlton: 11th in 91 to runners up in 93 to Premiers in 95 and 11th in 98 to runners up in 99.
The above examples tell it all. It doesn’t mean that if a team is down the bottom that they are naturally gunna spring up the ladder the next year or so. History also tells us that there have been more teams that dwell on the bottom after taking a tumble that those that rise up quickly, but the possibility is there for all to see and it depends on whether the building blocks are being put in place to engineer that inevitable rise.
Let there be no doubt that
Pago Pago is the man. Look at the graph of the Kangas and you will see exactly what he did with their kids from under 19’s to magoos to regular senior players to Senior Core players to Leaders to Champions. He traded pretty well and added some foot soldiers from other clubs and more exciting kids from the draft and bingo went all the way to all those Finals and Premierships.
So what can we do to return to the halcyon days and how long will it be before we are a power again? Simply refer to the content of this post and the Kangaroo rise as described above and understand that we already have a good bunch of kids (no under 19’s these days) playing school footy and magoos as well as some who have been blooded in seniors, a bunch of regular seniors, a handful of Senior Core coming on, a few developing Leaders, a couple of champions in waiting and guess what?
We are gunna have a huge say in the Trading and Draft periods this year to add to the foundation already there. You already know what the recipe makes. We just need the balance of the ingredients. Be patient people, they will be arriving very soon. Finals may just be around the corner because the
Head Chef is gunna return our beloved club to
Gourmet Class sooner than we think.
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