bondiblue wrote:
dane wrote:
Casboult is a potential A?
That's what youve got to ask.
Plenty of opinions.
I think he is what he is for the next 5 years.
He'll be a good mark and teams will pay him more respect.
He'll always be an inconsistent kick.
I say that with a lot at stake. He's young.
He might have one 25 goal breakout year.
He couldnt be more that that.
Could he??
...round again....
It's not about whether he is a potential 'A' grader or not - it is about whether or not he would reasonably be expected to continue to improve. Many here assume that he has peaked/plateaued but what is often overlooked here is the his role in the team structure and the importance of continuity and it's impact on fitness/fatigue
Lets look at casboults playing history at the club...
2010 - yr 1. Drafted as a 19yo soccer convert/project player with poor body shape but glimpses of potential - Worked hard, lost a HUGE amount of weight, showed lots in the 2nds (including finals games)
2011 - yr 2. Elevated to senior list in in march (ie showed enough promise), but then got injured shortly after (april) and was put onto the long term injury list with a knee complaint (PCL). Came back late in the season to again do well in the 2nds (again including finals)
2012 - yr 3. Missed most of the season with another PCL injury, played about 6 quarters of football post layoff (VFL development + VFL game) before being required to play 1st ruck. Did reasonably well and showed plenty of promise in his first 6 games (aside from horrible 0.5 against GC)
2013 - yr 4. Elevated to senior list under a new coach under a completely new game plan. Managed to get some games but was never shown a lot of faith (played rds 1-2. 10-15, 21-SF). Showed glimpses but considered to behind kreuzer/hampson/warnock and never really got an extended run to build confidence
2014 - yr 5. Again, rated behind warnock/kreuzer. Got his opportunity due to kreuzer being ruled out for the season and has started to develop a bit more consistency as he has gained confidence.
2014 has been the first year that casboult has had an extended run in the seniors - physically he has had to do a lot more than he has done at any point in time previously. Not only that, he has had to do it for much longer (within games/through the season) and at a much higher intensity (majority AFL games v mix of VFL/AFL previously).
Given that there has never been any question about his work ethic, it would be reasonable to suggest that casboult could continue to build his fitness base over the preseason (physical peak for guys around 27-28) and consequently look to improve again in 2015 - particularly as he gets more experience in the seniors (the 50-80 game settling in process for most players).
End result of the above babble..
It isn't whether or not casboult will improve over the next couple of seasons - it will be question of how much he could improve by (i.e. the potential ceiling). For myself, I have little doubt that with another preseason or two, he could become a significantly more consistent contributor to an AFL team just by reducing the number of 'quiet' games and by getting to more contests/having more good games. As an example of what I mean...
Quiet games (defined as <10 disposals) -> 2012 (4/6 games i.e. 66%), 2013 (7/11 i.e. 64%), 2014 (6/19 i.e. 32%)*
Good games (defined as 14+ disposals OR 8+ marks) -> 2012 (0/6 games i.e.0%), 2013 (3/11 i.e. 27%), 2014 (7/19 i.e. 37%)**
High impact games (ie 14+ disposals AND 8+ marks) -> (0/6 games i.e. 0%), 2013 (1/11 i.e. 9%), 2014 (4/19 i.e. 21%)
*5/6 quiet games in 2014 were in the last 6 rounds i.e. points to fatigue being a big factor.
** includes high impact games (excludes the 4 goal effort against hawks)
Obviously those are rough definitions and won't take into account games with low disposal/goals kicked etc but I think above groupings are informative
Assuming improved fitness will enable to casboult to sustain effort throughout the season (i.e. using the %'s you'd derive if you removed the last 6 games of 2014 from earlier calculations and translated through the season), then 2015 could potentially end with a playing record along the lines of 2 Quiet games (8%), 8 average games and 12 Good games (54%), of which 7 may be of high impact (31%) at an average of 12 disposals & 6 marks per game.
Given that the above numbers don't include any hypothetical improvement outside of the consistency aspect (i.e. putting down the last 6 games of 2014 as fatigue and eliminating that in 2015), I don't think that projection is too unreasonable - if casboult lifts his disposal/marks/goal kicking averages by just a small amount (readily achievable) then clearly he becomes a much better player.
Is am average of 12 disposals & 6 marks enough for casboult? - well leigh brown (the prototype 2nd string ruck/forward in the pies flag team) only ever managed that feat once in 12 seasons. The only real area where brown was ahead is goals and tackling. On goals, casboult, who can't kick, managed 15 in 2014 - in comparison brown, who COULD kick, managed ≥15 goals just 4 times over 12 seasons (15, 21, 21 & 23)...
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