Talking Carlton Index Lochie O'Brien Kerryn Harrington Lochie O'Brien Kerryn Harrington CFC Home CFC Membership CFC Shop CFC Fixture Blueseum
It is currently Fri Jul 11, 2025 8:10 am

All times are UTC + 10 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1854 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63 ... 93  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:49 pm 
Offline
Stephen Silvagni

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 25623
Location: Bondi Beach
dane wrote:
Based on that. Trade table.


Yep.

I like him and I hope we keep him as a Northern Blues player when he have no injuries... at least.

_________________
Everyone looks good in Navy Blue


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:24 pm 
Offline
Mike Fitzpatrick
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 8:15 pm
Posts: 4842
gerry atric wrote:
Amazing how players who are not getting much of an offer from their original club (who know them best) suddenly become great because they are available. Higgins is a skillful, injury prone under achiever. What does he add? Is it better that he be played on a hbf ahead of Sheehan? Just because he is available doesn't mean we either need or want him. We don't get him for nothing, we pay $350k or so for him and he sits on our list. I'd rather draft an extra 18 year old, pay him the base wage and spend the balance of the $350k on development. We are so mediocre. i don't want a club that moves up from 13th to 9th and back for a decade. look at the Hawks and their ten year strategy from when Clarkson arrived. They bit the bullet, had a clear strategy they followed which gave them pain for a few years and turned them into a powerhouse. They didn't top up until they were around the premiership mark. Stars come out of the draft, we have to be the best at identifying them and developing them, instead of wasting picks and then sniffing around other mediocre clubs for their mediocre discards.


:clap: (as they 'say').

_________________
Just because I'm offended, doesn't mean I'm wrong.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:58 pm 
Offline
Harry Vallence

Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:24 pm
Posts: 1531
Location: Melbourne
No waite, casabolt, eddie and possibly garlett

Three of those guys have been our top goal scorers last few yrs. Next season not looking flash.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:04 am 
Offline
Alex Jesaulenko
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2005 10:14 am
Posts: 22357
Goltz always bringing the :lol:s!

_________________
dane's trolling again


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:27 am 
Offline
Rod Ashman

Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:52 pm
Posts: 2044
Higgins is a free agent which means free and doesnt cost a draft pick.
HE takes the place of a 5th or 6th round draft pick who will have a 10 percent chance of playing 50 games
His wage is 350k in a 10mil cap about 100k over average wage
Even if he plays 12 games a year we are ahead.

Now the thing is you could not recruit higgins and give the money to casboult but then we are forced to pay hendersen 700 next year. 500k for a 15 goal season forward or second ruckman. Pretty steep


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:13 am 
Offline
Robert Walls

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:44 am
Posts: 3136
bondiblue wrote:
dane wrote:
Casboult is a potential A?


That's what youve got to ask.

Plenty of opinions.
I think he is what he is for the next 5 years.
He'll be a good mark and teams will pay him more respect.
He'll always be an inconsistent kick.

I say that with a lot at stake. He's young.
He might have one 25 goal breakout year.
He couldnt be more that that.

Could he??
...round again....


It's not about whether he is a potential 'A' grader or not - it is about whether or not he would reasonably be expected to continue to improve. Many here assume that he has peaked/plateaued but what is often overlooked here is the his role in the team structure and the importance of continuity and it's impact on fitness/fatigue

Lets look at casboults playing history at the club...
2010 - yr 1. Drafted as a 19yo soccer convert/project player with poor body shape but glimpses of potential - Worked hard, lost a HUGE amount of weight, showed lots in the 2nds (including finals games)
2011 - yr 2. Elevated to senior list in in march (ie showed enough promise), but then got injured shortly after (april) and was put onto the long term injury list with a knee complaint (PCL). Came back late in the season to again do well in the 2nds (again including finals)
2012 - yr 3. Missed most of the season with another PCL injury, played about 6 quarters of football post layoff (VFL development + VFL game) before being required to play 1st ruck. Did reasonably well and showed plenty of promise in his first 6 games (aside from horrible 0.5 against GC)
2013 - yr 4. Elevated to senior list under a new coach under a completely new game plan. Managed to get some games but was never shown a lot of faith (played rds 1-2. 10-15, 21-SF). Showed glimpses but considered to behind kreuzer/hampson/warnock and never really got an extended run to build confidence
2014 - yr 5. Again, rated behind warnock/kreuzer. Got his opportunity due to kreuzer being ruled out for the season and has started to develop a bit more consistency as he has gained confidence.

2014 has been the first year that casboult has had an extended run in the seniors - physically he has had to do a lot more than he has done at any point in time previously. Not only that, he has had to do it for much longer (within games/through the season) and at a much higher intensity (majority AFL games v mix of VFL/AFL previously).

Given that there has never been any question about his work ethic, it would be reasonable to suggest that casboult could continue to build his fitness base over the preseason (physical peak for guys around 27-28) and consequently look to improve again in 2015 - particularly as he gets more experience in the seniors (the 50-80 game settling in process for most players).

End result of the above babble..

It isn't whether or not casboult will improve over the next couple of seasons - it will be question of how much he could improve by (i.e. the potential ceiling). For myself, I have little doubt that with another preseason or two, he could become a significantly more consistent contributor to an AFL team just by reducing the number of 'quiet' games and by getting to more contests/having more good games. As an example of what I mean...

Quiet games (defined as <10 disposals) -> 2012 (4/6 games i.e. 66%), 2013 (7/11 i.e. 64%), 2014 (6/19 i.e. 32%)*
Good games (defined as 14+ disposals OR 8+ marks) -> 2012 (0/6 games i.e.0%), 2013 (3/11 i.e. 27%), 2014 (7/19 i.e. 37%)**
High impact games (ie 14+ disposals AND 8+ marks) -> (0/6 games i.e. 0%), 2013 (1/11 i.e. 9%), 2014 (4/19 i.e. 21%)

*5/6 quiet games in 2014 were in the last 6 rounds i.e. points to fatigue being a big factor.
** includes high impact games (excludes the 4 goal effort against hawks)

Obviously those are rough definitions and won't take into account games with low disposal/goals kicked etc but I think above groupings are informative

Assuming improved fitness will enable to casboult to sustain effort throughout the season (i.e. using the %'s you'd derive if you removed the last 6 games of 2014 from earlier calculations and translated through the season), then 2015 could potentially end with a playing record along the lines of 2 Quiet games (8%), 8 average games and 12 Good games (54%), of which 7 may be of high impact (31%) at an average of 12 disposals & 6 marks per game.

Given that the above numbers don't include any hypothetical improvement outside of the consistency aspect (i.e. putting down the last 6 games of 2014 as fatigue and eliminating that in 2015), I don't think that projection is too unreasonable - if casboult lifts his disposal/marks/goal kicking averages by just a small amount (readily achievable) then clearly he becomes a much better player.

Is am average of 12 disposals & 6 marks enough for casboult? - well leigh brown (the prototype 2nd string ruck/forward in the pies flag team) only ever managed that feat once in 12 seasons. The only real area where brown was ahead is goals and tackling. On goals, casboult, who can't kick, managed 15 in 2014 - in comparison brown, who COULD kick, managed ≥15 goals just 4 times over 12 seasons (15, 21, 21 & 23)...


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 6:39 am 
Offline
Harry Vallence

Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:24 pm
Posts: 1531
Location: Melbourne
dane wrote:
Goltz always bringing the :lol:s!

Sorry, Forgot we have watson as our new key forward. Future is bright


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 6:59 am 
Offline
Harry Vallence

Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:24 pm
Posts: 1531
Location: Melbourne
4thchicken - Great analysis on levi. He definitely looks set for more improvement. Hard to find key forwards that can take a mark. Kicking can be improved. Just like ot was with Travis Cloke. Would be a shame to lose him.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 7:08 am 
Offline
Stephen Kernahan
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 2:09 pm
Posts: 17238
I'm not interested in keeping him if he wants the sort of money he's demanding. Happy for him to ply his trade elsewhere. Saints would be a good fit.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 7:41 am 
Offline
Craig Bradley

Joined: Sat Oct 14, 2006 11:28 am
Posts: 6450
Happy to give the money if output reaches the money status, a very good fit for a heavily incentivised contract to me.

Output this year is worth, IMO, 250k. If the improvement continues as per the Chickens post then he has potential to earn 400k plus.

Value for money on both sides of the fence makes sense

_________________
"I will rejoice in their anguish, delight in their failure and revel in our success"

We are Carlton, @#$%&! the rest !!!!!!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 8:37 am 
Offline
Harry Vallence

Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:24 pm
Posts: 1531
Location: Melbourne
What money is he asking?

If he was at another club in free agency we probably pay 5-600k. 750k if he was from collingwood and a love child of mm

Key forwards are the hardest spots to fill. Never filled the spot held by fev. Cant win a grand final with out two key forwards.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 8:52 am 
Offline
Craig Bradley

Joined: Sat Oct 14, 2006 11:28 am
Posts: 6450
Earlier in the thread it was somewhere between 400-500k, whether that's true or not is another matter

_________________
"I will rejoice in their anguish, delight in their failure and revel in our success"

We are Carlton, @#$%&! the rest !!!!!!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:12 am 
Offline
Craig Bradley
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 4:42 pm
Posts: 7348
I'm happy to give him 500k, but only 350k guaranteed with the rest in performance bonuses. Considering we were thinking of paying cloke 800+ at one point, casboult is just as good or dare I say it, better, value for money at 500k.

the problem with paying casboult big dollars, if he becomes complacent and stops working hard. by all reports the kid wants to learn and dedicated & committed to getting better.

so ... if his attitude is right pay him. We can't turn over Waite, Casboult, garlett and betts in two offseasons and expect to kick a winning score with absolutely zero talent waiting in our wings.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:13 am 
Offline
Harry Vallence
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:17 pm
Posts: 1639
Location: Within the old Carlton recruting zone ...
Herald Sun yesterday had Bulldogs offering 350k which would suggest we were offering less than that. Given our list profile and lack of key forwards on the open market (plus he would have been on close to the minimum ever since he started playing seniors), I don't think somewhere between 300k and 350k is unreasonable.

_________________
In WADA we trust


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:13 am 
Offline
Geoff Southby
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 20, 2007 2:57 pm
Posts: 5338
Location: Melbourne
Levi not worth the cash he is demanding.

_________________
James Hird and Essendon* FC - #FOREVERDRUGCHEATS


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:15 am 
Offline
Craig Bradley
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 4:42 pm
Posts: 7348
Dominator_7 wrote:
Levi not worth the cash he is demanding.



yeah ... but who is?

welcome to modern footy.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:16 am 
Offline
Horrie Clover

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 3:10 pm
Posts: 322
Location: Melbourne, Victoria
Gerry Atric,

Although your theory used to be the bible for all the AFL sides, i think a few sides have proven you dont have to bottom out or what 5 or 10 years to play finals and better yet have a chance of winning them.

If your always waiting to have the perfect 22, which you probably need 28 good players to win a premiership, you might very well be waiting a very long time. Which with Carltons history would be the case.

I think we should bring in any talent that can help us win a premiership, whilst maintaining a balance of youth and senior players.

High draft picks and having kids under 21 flooding the list doesnt equal premierships! You need a balance of young and senior players.

Will someone like shaun higgins help us make finals in 2015, i think so. And at 26 why wouldnt we bring him into the club at the right price.

People need to get out of the mentality that getting the so called best 20 kids over a 4 year period of bottoming out equals premierships, it doesnt! it builds a losing culture and lowers the expectations of the club.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:23 am 
Offline
Harry Vallence

Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:02 am
Posts: 1770
HIGGINS

_________________
It is not as bad as you are lead to believe.......it is %$#^& worse!!!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:23 am 
Offline
Craig Bradley
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 4:42 pm
Posts: 7348
I recall Mick saying he wanted to follow the swans, hawks and cats who all have had a 30 deep playing roster to win their flags.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: List Management 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:29 am 
Offline
Alex Jesaulenko
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2005 10:14 am
Posts: 22357
Shit Braithy are you Levi's manager?

_________________
dane's trolling again


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1854 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63 ... 93  Next

All times are UTC + 10 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: CFC8795, DesEnglish, Google [Bot], Spudnick001 and 33 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group