aboynamedsue wrote:
4thchicken wrote:
Assuming no FA compo, thoughts on the following?
yarran + 19 -> crows 1st round pick (12) + 3rd round (48)
dangerfield ->cats 1st pick in 2015 (9) + 2nd round 2015 (27)
henderson -> cats 1st pick in 2016 + 2nd round 2016 + walker
Net:
crows -> dangerfield + 12 + 48 -> yarran + 9 + 20 + 27
cats -> 2015 & 2016 1st and 2nd round picks + walker -> henderson + dangerfield
blues -> yarran + henderson + 19 -> 12 + 48 + walker + cats 2016 1st and 2nd round (effective 7 spot upgrade of 2nd round pick, 3rd round picks, mid 1st round + 2nd rounds in 2016 + walker as steak knives)
Impact:
crows get good compo for dangerfield
cats sacrifice 2 years of picks + fringe for 2 players that they've been chasing all year
blue act as facilitators and get good compo for yarran/henderson (compo less good if cats move up ladder in 2016)
Not bad, but I don't reckon the Crows would be totally rapt with it.
From a Carlton perspective, I would prefer if Geelong traded Walker to GWS for a pick, which they then give to us instead of Walker in the above scenerio.
Whilst the crows wouldn't be rapt with the deal, its probably a stronger overall package than what the cats would offer in isolation. AFL points table would put 20+27 as equivalent of pick 8. Whilst cats might offer 2 X 1st round (2015/16), the future pick carries downside risk (if cats rise up ladder with dangerfield/henderson addition). Imo, the other appeal would be a reuniting yarran with betts - a happier yarran, developed in the right environment -> remember those mcleod comparisons a few years back? (obviously yarran not at same level)
From a carlton perspective, I didn't want to go further than 3 teams for the trade and thus kept it as
blues -> yarran + henderson + 19 -> 12 + 48 + walker + cats 2016 1st and 2nd round (effective 7 spot upgrade of 2nd round pick, 3rd round picks, mid 1st round + 2nd rounds in 2016 + walker as steak knives)
Personally, I'd look for the following from there...
1. 12 -> GWS -> plowman + bugg + phillips (can't see GWS being interested in walker when they have a host of KPP)
2. combining 2 X 2016 2nd round picks (blues + cats) and offering it to either Essendon*/melbourne/brisbane/saints for a 1st round pick (this year or next). Most teams would be expecting blues to remain bottom 2 in 2016 so they'd be projecting picks 19/20 + mid-late 20s pick for a pick around 5-12 in a deeper/stronger draft
Net result
2015 draft -> picks 1 (weitering), 37 (rice), 48 (SOSOS), 56 (rookie upgrades) etc + walker, bugg, plowman, phillips
2016 draft -> 3 X 1st round picks (blues/cats + other team), 3rd round pick etc
Whilst there would be potential to add more 2015 picks by trading bell, casboult etc, I'd bank top 20 picks for a stronger draft next year where possible, or to bring in young players from other teams (highly rated sub-23 yos only)
For 2016
- throw $$$ at FA (hartlett)
- pry out big names from another club using $$$ + ability to wave up to 3 X 1st round picks for right player/s i.e. top liners from GCS/GWS like o'meara/shiel <- if we don't get good value, go the draft.